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World risks

Follow World risksAlerts when its risks move. Free.

· Ten hotspots, numbered by a written rule.

This page answers: Which risks do we follow, and which countries do they reach?

Using this page
  1. Choose a circle on the map, or a risk in the list, to open its card.
  2. Pick a region to see the risks that reach it.
  3. Open Full analyst view for the risks our briefs follow and their sources.
88. Taiwan Strait & China (Elevated impact · possible · ▼ falling)44. Russia, Ukraine & NATO (High impact · unlikely · ▲ rising)33. US trade & foreign policy (High impact · unlikely · ▼ falling)22. Gulf & Hormuz (Iran war) (High impact · possible · ▲ rising)11. Red Sea & Bab el-Mandeb (High impact · under way · acute · ▲ rising)3US trade & foreignpolicyHigh impact · unlikely▼ falling4Russia, Ukraine& NATOHigh impact · unlikely▲ rising2Gulf & Hormuz(Iran war)High impact · possible▲ rising8Taiwan Strait & ChinaElevated impact · possible▼ falling1Red Sea & Babel-MandebHigh impact · under wayacute · ▲ risingMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).

Ten hotspots In rule order

  1. 1
    Red Sea & Bab el-MandebSecurity · rising · acute · 8 risks
  2. 2
    Gulf & Hormuz (Iran war)War · rising · 52 risks
  3. 3
    US trade & foreign policyGeoeconomics · falling · 34 risks
  4. 4
    Russia, Ukraine & NATOWar · rising · 38 risks
  5. 5
    Global debt & marketsTheme · Geoeconomics · rising · 49 risks
  6. 6
    Food, climate & healthTheme · Security · rising · 17 risks
  7. 7
    Tech & chip controlsTheme · Geotechnology · rising · 17 risks
  8. 8
    Taiwan Strait & ChinaGeopolitics · falling · 11 risks
  9. 9
    Elections & unrestTheme · Geopolitics · rising · 31 risks
  10. 10
    Critical mineralsTheme · Geoeconomics · steady · 6 risks

The first five are the top five; the rest are also watching. Five place hotspots on the map; five themes in the band below.

Select a hotspot, a region or a country to see its risks here.

Hotspot, numbered by the ruleAcute: high impact, under wayHotspot countriesTheme: no single place, not drawnSelect a hotspot to zoom in

Source: Strature world risk cards, the written hotspot ruleData as of 11 Nov 2026

The top five Open one to see its risks

  1. 1

    Red Sea & Bab el-Mandeb

    Security · rising

    Acute · under way

    Middle East and North Africa · 8 risks

    Strongest riskThe Red Sea stays closed to most shipping: Houthi attacks, Bab el-Mandeb and the Suez CanalHigh impact · under wayMost ships still avoid Bab el-Mandeb.

    Next in this hotspot (risk 1) Strature forecast F-0074 (renewed US or Israeli strike on Iran): 61% (21 Aug 2026) resolves

    Zoom
  2. 2

    Gulf & Hormuz (Iran war)

    War · rising

    Middle East and North Africa · 52 risks

    Strongest riskIran answers the IAEA's report to the Security Council by quitting the NPTHigh impact · possibleOn 9 Sep 2026 the IAEA Board in Vienna voted 23 to 3, with 8 abstentions, to report Iran's safeguards non-compliance to the UN Security Council.

    Next in this hotspot (risk 14) Deadline for 2027 nickel ore quota (RKAB) applications

    Zoom
  3. 3

    US trade & foreign policy

    Geoeconomics · falling

    Americas · 34 risks

    Strongest riskThe US puts Graham Act secondary tariffs on Chinese goods over Russian oilHigh impact · unlikelyA US law signed on 18 September 2026 requires duties of up to 100% on goods from the five largest buyers of Russian oil and gas, unless the president waives them.

    Next in this hotspot (risk 30) US troops due to leave after the exercise

    Zoom
  4. 4

    Russia, Ukraine & NATO

    War · rising

    Russia and Eurasia · 38 risks

    Strongest riskRussia and Ukraine sign a general ceasefire on the current front lineHigh impact · unlikelyThe war is more than four and a half years old with no general ceasefire.

    Next in this hotspot (risk 7) Informal leaders' meeting, Ireland

    Zoom
  5. 5

    Global debt & markets

    Geoeconomics · rising

    Theme · no single place

    Theme · many places · 49 risks

    Strongest riskA G7 bond rout forces a central bank to buy government bondsElevated impact · possibleLong-term government bond yields across the G7 rose sharply from July to early October 2026.

    Next in this hotspot (risk 39) Central bank rate decision

    Zoom

Theme hotspots Many places, no single spot on the map; each opens on the region that holds most of its top ten

All 634 risks, by region

Worldwide

  1. The CDC or WHO confirms sustained human-to-human spread of H5N1 bird flu
  2. Urea prices return to crisis levels for the 2027 spring planting
  3. A strong El Niño through winter 2026-27 cuts harvests and water supply
  4. The WTO adopts no reform of dispute settlement or decision-making by 25 Oct 2027
  5. IEA members agree a second emergency oil stock release
  6. A G7 bond rout forces a central bank to buy government bonds
  7. India, Indonesia or Russia bans exports of rice, palm oil or wheat in the El Niño year
  8. World food prices climb back to 2022 levels: the FAO Food Price Index tops 150
  9. World trade in AI-enabling goods falls year on year
  10. The US dollar slides 10% on the Fed's broad index
  11. Qatar keeps force majeure on Asian LNG past November 2026
  12. A big fuel exporter bans or halts diesel exports to protect its home market
  13. A winter LNG crunch forces gas rationing in Europe, Japan or South Korea
  14. The US eases sanctions on Russia's oil majors while the EU keeps its Russia sanctions
  15. The US raises or widens its Section 301 "forced-labour" tariff on the 60 listed economies
  16. A state-linked cyber attack cuts power, water or a port for a day or more
  17. Indonesian fire haze returns to Singapore at unhealthy levels in 2027
  18. Russian forces confront a NATO boarding of a shadow-fleet tanker in the Baltic
  19. A helium shortfall forces chip output cuts in Taiwan or South Korea
  20. Two or more undersea cables or pipes cut in one Baltic or North Sea incident
  21. Ransomware halts a major port, hospital network or pipeline for three days or more

Americas

  1. The US tariff wall around Canada and Mexico stays up or grows
  2. US gasoline stays at or above US$3.50 a gallon to June 2027
  3. United States: the midterms and a year of policy whiplash on trade, the budget and the Fed
  4. The US puts a tariff of 10% or more on refined copper from Chile
  5. Washington re-tightens chip export controls on China
  6. The president removes Fed Governor Lisa Cook, and the removal holds
  7. The US lifts its Graham Act waiver and puts secondary tariffs on a buyer of Russian oil
  8. US growth stalls below 1% for two quarters in a row
  9. US armed forces act on Canadian territory or in waters Canada claims, without Canada's consent
  10. US duties on Canadian softwood lumber stay above 30% through October 2027
  11. A First Nation's court challenge keeps the Pacific Link listing in question
  12. Nicaragua ratifies seven-year terms and bars the opposition
  13. The world court rules on the Essequibo border and Venezuela rejects the ruling
  14. Diesel in Santiago reaches 1,800 pesos a litre
  15. El Niño forces programmed power cuts to homes in Bogotá's region or the Caribbean
  16. The US ends Temporary Protected Status for Salvadorans
  17. AI power wall: the largest US grid falls short of its reliability target a third time
  18. An Eastern Caribbean state commits to close its citizenship-by-investment programme
  19. Congress turns Brazil's ban on fixed-odds betting into law by 31 Mar 2027
  20. El Niño's dry season forces the Panama Canal to cut drafts again
  21. The International Court of Justice rules on Guatemala's claim to Belizean territory
  22. Brazil after the vote: a contested result or a fiscal break
  23. The US openly strikes cartel targets inside Mexico without Mexico's consent
  24. El Niño drought pushes Guatemala or Honduras past a food-crisis threshold
  25. The US restricts foreign access to its AI models
  26. A US debt-limit standoff with Treasury's cash projected to run out within three months
  27. US natural gas (Henry Hub) averages US$5 per MMBtu or more in a winter month
  28. The US 10-year Treasury yield closes above 5.5%
  29. A rating agency puts Argentina in selective default
  30. Quebec's new PQ government tables a referendum bill or opens an official sovereignty consultation
  31. The US puts a national-security tariff or quota on medical devices from Costa Rica and the Dominican Republic
  32. The US Treasury market seizes and the Fed buys bonds to restore it
  33. US private-credit funds keep paying out less than investors ask for
  34. Cuba's national grid collapses nationwide again
  35. Brazil's farmers take a tenth less fertiliser in 2026
  36. First gas from Venezuela's Dragon field does not reach Trinidad by 30 Sep 2027
  37. Haiti holds no first round of its general elections by 1 Nov 2027
  38. Jamaica keeps its fiscal rules suspended past March 2027
  39. Peru opens no first anchovy season in 2027
  40. Brazil and Paraguay miss the year-end mark for Itaipú's new financial terms
  41. The Fed raises rates again by March 2027
  42. Argentina needs another IMF waiver to keep its programme on track
  43. Venezuelan heavy crude takes US import share from Canada
  44. Costa Rica rations electricity in the 2027 dry season
  45. Ecuador decrees a state of exception for El Niño floods
  46. Ecuador orders scheduled national power cuts
  47. Mexico's state oil sector needs federal money beyond its budget line
  48. Panama authorises a restart of the closed Donoso copper mine
  49. El Niño floods leave 100,000 people in Peru without home or livelihood
  50. A Peronist candidate finishes first in Argentina's first round on 24 Oct 2027
  51. Bolivia passes a lithium law that opens the salt flats to private partners
  52. Canada's real GDP falls for two quarters in a row by the fourth quarter of 2027
  53. USTR opens a Section 301 investigation of Canada's Online Streaming Act
  54. China takes a formal measure against Panama over its canal ports
  55. A gas shortfall forces two weeks or more of gas rationing in Colombia
  56. Colombia loses its last investment-grade credit rating
  57. The Dominican grid suffers another general blackout
  58. Honduras switches recognition back from Beijing to Taipei
  59. The Bank of Jamaica raises its policy rate again, to 6.50% or more
  60. The US charges or sanctions another sitting Mexican governor or federal official
  61. Moody's cuts Panama below investment grade
  62. A new break in the Camisea pipeline cuts gas to Lima
  63. Remittances to El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras fall year on year in a quarter
  64. Another ammonia or methanol plant at Point Lisas shuts for lack of gas
  65. Uruguay's economy shrinks for two quarters in a row
  66. US federal agencies shut for a week or more when the stopgap runs out on 11 December
  67. A court halts the planned aluminium smelter at Inola, Oklahoma
  68. A major hurricane (Category 3 or above) passes within 50 nautical miles of the Bahamas before 1 Nov 2027
  69. The US raises its Section 301 duty on Brazil or strips its exemptions
  70. Chile's central bank raises its policy rate above 4.5%
  71. Colombia's Constitutional Court strikes down the earthquake emergency
  72. The US revokes or suspends its 2026 Cuba sanctions order, or ends the Cuba emergency
  73. A major hurricane passes close to the Dominican Republic
  74. A leading presidential candidate or party is barred before Guatemala's 27 Jun 2027 vote
  75. Jamaica's Hermitage Dam, Kingston's main reservoir, falls below a quarter full
  76. A major hurricane (Category 3 or above) passes within 50 nautical miles of Jamaica before 1 Nov 2027
  77. Low water on the Paraguay River caps barge loads again
  78. A major hurricane hits the Caribbean coast of Honduras, Nicaragua or Guatemala
  79. A hurricane passes close to Saint Vincent and the Grenadines or Barbados before 3 Nov 2027
  80. Argentina's China swap line is ended, cut or called
  81. Suriname's first offshore oil slips beyond 2028
  82. The US duty on non-CAFTA Nicaraguan goods rises to 10% on 1 Jan 2027 and stays through 1 Feb 2027
  83. Canada and Mercosur miss their end-2026 target for a trade deal
  84. The Labrador hydro agreements are still unsigned on 31 December 2026
  85. US forces join a lethal strike on an armed group inside Colombia
  86. The end of Bolivia's fuel subsidy brings a week of national road blockades
  87. Wildfires bring a state of catastrophe to a Chilean region again
  88. Erosion or a rupture stops Ecuador's main crude pipeline for a week or more
  89. Informal miners block Peru's national roads as their permit register ends
  90. The Canada-ASEAN trade deal misses its November 2026 target
  91. A court or regulator halts oil drilling off the Amazon mouth
  92. The Canada-EU summit delivers none of its drafted deals by 31 Dec 2026
  93. China's tariffs on Canadian canola meal, peas, lobster and crab return on 1 January 2027
  94. Costa Rica's president asks the electoral tribunal for a national referendum on a blocked bill
  95. A Venezuelan naval vessel enters Guyana's offshore oil area again
  96. Guyana's Wales gas power plant still sends no power to the grid on 31 Mar 2027
  97. Honduras has no new IMF arrangement by 30 Jun 2027
  98. A chip shortage idles a Mexican car or electronics plant for two weeks
  99. El Salvador's IMF programme stalls: no further review completed by 1 Nov 2027
  100. A strike halts Gran Rosario grain shipments for three days or more
  101. Costa Rica's Assembly suspends individual guarantees in a crime-hit area
  102. The Dominican Republic shuts its land border with Haiti to trade for a week or more
  103. Ecuador's IMF programme completes no review by 31 Mar 2027
  104. Washington threatens a tariff or force over Greenland again
  105. A blockade stops copper trucks on Peru's southern mining corridor for two weeks
  106. The US lifts its waiver and puts Graham Act duties on Russian goods, potash included
  107. The US imposes the first labour-mechanism remedy on a Mexican facility
  108. A strike cuts output at a large Chilean copper mine for a week or more

Middle East and North Africa

  1. The Red Sea stays closed to most shipping: Houthi attacks, Bab el-Mandeb and the Suez Canal
  2. Iran answers the IAEA's report to the Security Council by quitting the NPT
  3. The Strait of Hormuz shuts again
  4. Saudi barrels return and Brent falls below US$70
  5. Iraq's armed factions keep their weapons past the June 2027 deadline
  6. The dollar passes 300,000 tomans on Iran's open market
  7. The IMF approves a loan programme for Iraq
  8. The war budget forces Riyadh to shelve or shrink a giga-project
  9. Iran's crude output falls below 1.5 million barrels a day
  10. Iranian fire damages a port, plant or fuel site in Bahrain or Oman again
  11. Bahrain makes its 10% corporate income tax law
  12. Kuwait signs its first new upstream contract with a foreign oil company
  13. Libya splits again into two rival central bank governors
  14. A missile or drone damages Qatar's gas plants at Ras Laffan or Mesaieed again
  15. Gulf realignment: a fourth state joins the Makkah defence pact
  16. Yemen's rial in Aden weakens past 2,000 per US dollar
  17. US sanctions hit one of Türkiye's ten largest banks over Iran
  18. Famine is confirmed in part of Yemen
  19. Houthi forces take Marib city
  20. No UAE state investor closes a C$1bn deal in Canada by October 2027
  21. The US cuts off a UAE-licensed bank or exchange house over Iran
  22. Free of OPEC, the UAE pumps above 4 mb/d for a quarter
  23. Iranian gas to Iraq stops for a week or more
  24. Kuwait sells its first government sukuk
  25. No new IMF staff-level agreement for Lebanon by Nov 2027
  26. Iraqi crude through Ceyhan falls back below 0.4 mb/d for 30 days
  27. A rating agency cuts Bahrain again
  28. Iraq has no 2027 budget law by the end of March 2027
  29. Israeli pipeline gas to Jordan stops for two weeks or more again
  30. Jordan's Aqaba-Amman water carrier misses financial close by mid-2027
  31. No UN or multinational force replaces UNIFIL in south Lebanon by 31 Mar 2027
  32. Libya's central bank devalues the dinar by a tenth or more again
  33. Israeli banks stop clearing shekel payments for Palestinian banks
  34. Another Arab or African state cuts diplomatic ties with the UAE
  35. An Iranian strike halts a UAE port, plant or airport
  36. Bahrain's central bank foreign exchange assets fall below BD 500m
  37. No new GCC support package for Bahrain by mid-2027
  38. Algeria recalls its ambassador from, or imposes new trade curbs on, an EU member state
  39. Algeria's pipeline gas to Italy and Spain falls by 10% or more year on year in Jan-Mar 2027
  40. The IMF board has not completed Egypt's final programme review by 31 Mar 2027
  41. The Egyptian pound loses a tenth of its value within three months
  42. A rating agency downgrades Qatar, Kuwait, the UAE or Saudi Arabia
  43. Fire from Lebanon into Israel resumes on seven or more days in a month
  44. Kuwait strips 1,000 or more people of citizenship in one month again
  45. Blockades or force majeure push Libya's crude output under 1.0 mb/d for 14 days
  46. Fighting in Western Sahara kills 10 or more people in a month, now that the UN mission's mandate has lapsed
  47. Qatar's 2027 budget plans less spending than 2026's QAR 220.8bn
  48. Qatar's first new North Field East LNG train is not producing by mid-2027
  49. Tunisia borrows more from its central bank than the 2027 budget allows
  50. Türkiye's central bank has to raise its policy rate again within 12 months
  51. Kuwait sets a date to bring back its elected parliament
  52. Morocco's phosphate fertiliser industry cuts output by a fifth or more for a quarter again
  53. JNIM carries out a deadly attack inside Mauritania
  54. Oman raises its capped petrol or diesel prices
  55. A rating agency lifts Oman a notch above the investment-grade floor
  56. FIBA postpones or moves the 2027 Basketball World Cup out of Doha
  57. Drought cuts the 2027 cereal harvest by a quarter in two Maghreb states
  58. Congress blocks or conditions the F-35 sale to Saudi Arabia
  59. Syria and Israel sign a security agreement
  60. The PKK disarmament process breaks down
  61. LNG output at Greater Tortue Ahmeyim stops for 30 days or more
  62. Wildfires kill 10 or more people in Algeria within a week
  63. Libya's power grid collapses across two or more regions again
  64. Tunisia's foreign currency reserves fall under 90 days of imports
  65. Power cuts hit several Tunisian regions on three or more days in a month
  66. The Canada-UAE trade deal, concluded in July, is not signed by mid-2027
  67. Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait or the UAE shuts its airspace to civil flights for a day
  68. Iranian fire damages a site in Jordan again
  69. Jordan strikes inside Syria again
  70. An Iranian strike halts a Kuwaiti refinery, terminal or water plant
  71. Kuwait cuts power to parts of the country again
  72. An Israeli strike hits Beirut or its southern suburbs again
  73. A Houthi attack hits Egypt or Egyptian forces
  74. Egypt cuts gas to its fertiliser plants for two weeks
  75. Kuwait borrows from its Future Generations Fund
  76. Fighting in Tripoli or Zawiya kills 10 or more people in a week
  77. Morocco lifts its 2027 subsidy budget by a fifth or more
  78. Oman's 2027 budget plans a deficit above 2026's RO 530m
  79. Oman awards land in its third green hydrogen auction
  80. Oman's main crude export terminal stops loading for a week
  81. The EU methane rule's import test starts on 1 January 2027 for Qatari LNG, with no delay in force
  82. Canada and Saudi Arabia miss their early-2027 target for an investment treaty
  83. A Houthi strike cuts power or water to a Saudi city for two days
  84. Sabotage knocks out Syrian power plants again
  85. A Turkish-flagged merchant ship is hit in the Black Sea
  86. A Greek-Turkish standoff at sea south or east of Crete
  87. A cyberattack halts a UAE port, airport or energy site for a day
  88. Bahrain puts off its parliamentary election a second time
  89. Algerian troops sent to guard oil assets in Niger are killed in an attack
  90. An Iran-linked attack stops Israeli chip fabs for a week
  91. Jordan's main crossing into Syria stays shut to freight for 30 days
  92. Clashes on the Lebanon-Syria border kill 10 or more in a week
  93. US export limits hold back a Saudi AI data centre
  94. The Gabès phosphate chemical units stop for two weeks or more

Asia-Pacific

  1. The US widens its Section 232 chip tariff from a short list to most chips
  2. The US puts Graham Act secondary tariffs on Chinese goods over Russian oil
  3. China's export surge meets a wall of trade defence
  4. The India-EU trade deal enters into force by November 2027
  5. India tightens cooking-gas rationing again
  6. Japan or China puts new export controls on chip materials or tools aimed at the other
  7. China squeezes Taiwan's sea lanes: quarantine or blockade
  8. Torkham stays shut to commercial cargo
  9. The Diet enacts a consumption-tax cut
  10. Under way: Thailand keeps its land border with Cambodia shut to trade
  11. Sri Lanka keeps weekly fuel quotas on motorists
  12. Indonesia's shares are moved out of the main emerging-markets benchmark
  13. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand lifts the OCR to 3.50% or more
  14. A new sulphur squeeze cuts Indonesia's battery-nickel output
  15. PNG's Parliament still has not voted on Bougainville's independence by 1 Nov 2027
  16. The squeezed middle: China hits two more US partners with formal counter-measures
  17. The iron ore price averages below US$80 a tonne for a month
  18. China puts a new curb on civilian trade with Japan
  19. India and Pakistan strike each other's territory again
  20. The US penalises India again for buying Russian oil
  21. Japan's 10-year bond yield closes above 3.5%
  22. The US raises its tariff on South Korean cars above 15%
  23. The US cuts its troops in South Korea or cancels a major allied exercise
  24. Rare-earth shipments from Burma to China fall by half for three months running
  25. The US adds an excess-capacity tariff on Malaysian electronics, machinery or other named goods
  26. Thailand raises its 70% public-debt ceiling
  27. Thailand's state-managed diesel price reaches 50 baht a litre
  28. The US adds an excess-capacity tariff on Thai cars, machinery or rubber goods
  29. The US adds a second Section 301 tariff on most Vietnamese goods
  30. A local-government financing vehicle misses a public bond payment
  31. Indonesia lifts its 3% deficit cap or weakens the central bank's protection
  32. India caps or halts diesel and jet fuel exports to protect its home market
  33. A Japan-China encounter at sea or in the air ends in a collision, gunfire or injury
  34. South Korea's chip export boom turns into a fall
  35. A fuel shortfall forces rolling power cuts in Taiwan
  36. Shipping through the Singapore Strait stops for 48 hours or more
  37. The Reserve Bank of Australia lifts the cash rate to 4.85% or more by year end
  38. Japan's oil bill keeps its goods trade in deficit through March 2027
  39. Allies publicly blame China for a new break-in to critical infrastructure
  40. The Hong Kong dollar hits the weak end of its band and the HKMA buys it
  41. The Bank of Korea raises its rate to 3.25% by year end
  42. No status agreement that includes the FLNKS is signed by 31 Mar 2027
  43. Nauru leaves the OECD list of aid recipients on 1 January 2027
  44. Drought is declared across three or more New Zealand regions
  45. Palau, the FSM or the Marshall Islands declares a drought emergency as El Niño peaks
  46. El Niño drought hits the dry-season rice crop in Vietnam and Thailand
  47. Canberra steps in again on fertiliser before the 2027 winter crop
  48. India's war-year subsidies push its deficit above the 4.3% target
  49. Sri Lanka's grid fails island-wide again
  50. A Labour-led government takes office after New Zealand's 7 November election
  51. The Philippine central bank raises its policy rate again
  52. The Philippine Senate convicts Vice President Sara Duterte
  53. The Greater Sunrise gas contracts are still unsigned on 30 Jun 2027
  54. A tropical cyclone forces a state of emergency in Tonga, Samoa or Tuvalu
  55. Taiwan's legislature cuts the record supplementary budget by more than a tenth, or lets it lapse
  56. Will the KMT win 13 or more of Taiwan's 22 mayor and county posts on 28 Nov?
  57. Pakistan strikes Kabul again
  58. The EU and Bangladesh have not launched trade-deal talks by 31 Oct 2027
  59. Bangladesh has no new IMF programme by the end of June 2027
  60. Bangladesh sheds 2,000 MW of power at peak again
  61. China takes formal counter-measures against Mexico's tariff wall
  62. The US sanctions a bank in Hong Kong over Iran or Russia
  63. The rupee weakens past 100 to the US dollar
  64. The US or UK sanctions a further Cambodian official or state body over scam centres
  65. Sri Lanka has no follow-on IMF deal six months after its programme ends
  66. One of New Caledonia's two working nickel plants stops for 90 days
  67. Nepal halts labour permits to Gulf states again
  68. Fitch or Moody's cuts New Zealand's credit rating
  69. Pakistan's petrol or diesel stocks fall below 10 days
  70. Pakistani forces fight the Houthis in Yemen
  71. The Philippines declares a new national energy emergency over fuel
  72. Rotating power cuts return to Luzon in the El Niño dry season
  73. The Papua LNG project misses a final investment decision by 31 Mar 2027
  74. Singapore's regulated power tariff jumps more than 10% in a quarter on gas costs
  75. Solomon Islands ends or suspends its 2022 security pact with China
  76. Heavy fighting resumes on the Thai-Cambodian border
  77. Northern Vietnam runs short of power in the 2027 dry season
  78. Vanuatu signs its separate economic agreement with China
  79. Australia orders diesel rationing or allocation
  80. The yuan falls back past 6.85 per US dollar
  81. Fiji declares a fuel emergency or rations fuel
  82. Hong Kong's AI-led export boom turns into a quarterly fall
  83. The US puts new sanctions on officials over Hong Kong
  84. A rise in subsidised fuel prices sets off protests in many Indonesian cities
  85. Laos misses a bond payment or opens a commercial debt restructuring
  86. A cyclone or monsoon flood kills 100 or more people in Sri Lanka
  87. A rating agency puts the Maldives in default
  88. The Arakan Army takes Kyaukphyu town, the end point of China's corridor
  89. Malaysia raises its subsidised RON95 petrol price to RM2.20 a litre or more
  90. New Zealand moves to phase 4 of its fuel plan: pump limits and priority users
  91. Gulf remittances to Bangladesh or Pakistan fall a tenth
  92. Singapore's chip-led boom turns into a technical recession
  93. A quake or other disaster halts chip output in Kumamoto for 30 days or more
  94. Macao's casino takings fall year on year for a full quarter
  95. The EU has not lifted Vietnam's seafood "yellow card" by 30 Jun 2027
  96. Japan steps into the currency market again to buy yen
  97. The US adds a Section 301 "excess capacity" tariff on Cambodian goods
  98. Macao's economy shrinks year on year in a quarter
  99. Petrol stations run dry again in Vietnam's cities
  100. Brunei's economy shrinks for two quarters in a row as old fields falter
  101. A deadly or ship-disabling clash at Scarborough Shoal
  102. Kiribati's 2027 budget cuts its draw on the sovereign fund below A$70 million
  103. The IMF Board has not completed Sri Lanka's seventh review by 31 Jan 2027
  104. Australia sends a warship to the Strait of Hormuz
  105. Bhutan cuts power to energy-heavy industry in the 2026-27 dry season
  106. Fiji's general election is pushed past 6 Feb 2027
  107. Hong Kong's airport has to ration jet fuel
  108. A deadly clash on the DMZ or the sea border
  109. Malaysia's Parliament is dissolved early, before July 2027
  110. Singapore's bunker fuel sales fall more than 10% over three months
  111. Indonesia sends forces on an operation under its new "Badr" pact
  112. A typhoon shuts every Macao casino for 24 hours or more

Europe

  1. Europe's right turn: the RN in France, the AfD in Germany, Reform UK
  2. The EU's ban on Russian LNG under long-term contracts bites from 1 January 2027
  3. Hungary ends the Russian contract for the Paks II nuclear project
  4. A veto lets an EU Russia sanctions regime lapse at its renewal date
  5. The EU switches on its ban on maritime services for Russian oil
  6. The EU puts the principal of Russia's immobilised reserves to use
  7. Zeebrugge goes a winter quarter without Qatari or Russian LNG
  8. Italy's Qatari LNG stays cut off into spring 2027
  9. Bosnia permanently loses EU Growth Plan money for missed reforms
  10. The ECB raises rates a third time on energy inflation
  11. The Czech central bank lifts its main rate to 4.25% or higher
  12. AI grid queue: two or more European grids ration new data-centre connections
  13. The EU moves to delay its carbon price on fuel and heating a second time
  14. EU leaders miss the deadline for the 2028-2034 budget
  15. No EU legal act funds Ukraine for 2028 by late October 2027
  16. The Lecornu government falls before France adopts its 2027 budget
  17. Norway's parliament adopts new ethics rules for the oil fund
  18. Sweden's central bank lifts its policy rate to 2.5% or more
  19. The US raises its tariff on Swiss goods or Swiss medicines
  20. China bars exports of chips made in China by a foreign-controlled chipmaker
  21. Merz's coalition breaks or faces a confidence vote
  22. The US raises its tariff on EU cars above the 15% deal rate
  23. The US opens a trade case against EU digital rules
  24. The US lifts its general tariff on EU goods above 15%
  25. The US raises its drug tariff on EU medicines above 15%
  26. Andorra's referendum rejects the EU association agreement
  27. The EU-China hybrid cap fails and the EU puts duties on Chinese hybrids
  28. A court ruling halts the EU-Mercosur trade deal
  29. Norway's oil fund falls below NOK 20,000bn at a quarter end
  30. Norway curbs power exports to Europe
  31. De Wever's five-party government falls over the budget
  32. The Danube at Budapest falls to 50 cm or lower
  33. Cross-border bank consolidation in Germany: a foreign bank takes control of a large German bank
  34. The Bank of England raises rates on energy inflation
  35. Under way: the EU's ferro-alloy quotas still curb Iceland's exports in Nov 2027
  36. North Macedonia opens no EU cluster by 31 Oct 2027
  37. Will Swiss voters approve the looser War Material Act on 29 Nov 2026?
  38. Estonia's Reform Party loses the premiership after the March 2027 election
  39. The Social Democrats come first in Finland's April 2027 election
  40. A German chemical or steel plant closes or cuts deep as gas costs climb
  41. Spain has no invested Prime Minister by 31 January 2027 after the 29 November snap election
  42. UK household energy price cap jumps 10% or more in January or April 2027
  43. Italy votes before late October 2027, the first time under the new majority-bonus law
  44. President's vetoes block Poland's defence money or 2027 budget revenue
  45. Slovakia's opposition wins a seat majority at the 2027 election
  46. Slovenian voters strike down the government's omnibus development law on 6 Dec 2026
  47. Landlocked Austria draws again on its emergency oil stocks
  48. Germany's pension reform misses its new spring target
  49. Spain's fuel tax relief runs out in the gap between governments
  50. Drone strikes on merchant ships off Bulgaria and Romania
  51. The UK carbon border tax starts in January 2027 with no UK-EU carbon market link signed
  52. The 30-year gilt yield closes above 6%
  53. The UK-EU food and farm trade deal misses its mid-2027 start
  54. Jetten's minority cabinet falls before October 2027
  55. Norges Bank raises its policy rate to 4.75% or more
  56. The Burgas refinery stops for two weeks or more for lack of a US licence
  57. Bosnia has no new High Representative in office on 30 Jun 2027
  58. Swiss parliament blocks or sends back the EU treaty package
  59. The last Crete-Cyprus cable surveys are not finished by mid-2027
  60. Cyprus cuts household water supply in a district
  61. Prague caps household power or gas prices again
  62. The EU puts off its carbon border bill, or a big partner hits back
  63. A second EU country rations diesel or jet fuel
  64. The EU delays its ban on Russian gas because of the Gulf shock
  65. A partner takes the EU's new steel quotas to the WTO, or hits back
  66. A rating agency cuts Finland's credit rating again
  67. A rating agency cuts Hungary below investment grade
  68. Italy's 2026 deficit misses 3% and the EU procedure stays open
  69. Gas to Transnistria stops for a week or more
  70. The krone gives back its 2026 gains against the euro
  71. Poland lays anti-personnel mines on its eastern border
  72. Half a million Portuguese customers lose power at once
  73. Brussels cuts Portugal's final recovery-fund payment
  74. The Danube at Budapest falls to 0 cm, or low water stops shipping
  75. Rail Baltica's 2030 deadline is formally dropped
  76. Romania's new government falls within a year
  77. A rating agency cuts Romania below investment grade
  78. Romania limits power to consumers in a supply crisis
  79. Druzhba oil to Hungary and Slovakia stops again for two weeks or more
  80. Serbia's Pančevo refinery stops for two weeks or more for lack of a US licence
  81. No Prime Minister, and Sweden is forced into an extra election
  82. Edi Rama leaves office as prime minister before 1 Nov 2027
  83. Austria's savings path breaks: the EU steps up its deficit procedure, or the coalition splits
  84. Switzerland orders power restrictions or quotas in winter 2026-27
  85. Czechia stops running the ammunition initiative for Ukraine
  86. Brussels freezes a whole Czech EU funding programme over the conflict of interest
  87. Denmark's minority government falls before November 2027
  88. Cost-of-living protests bring down a government in a large EU economy
  89. Finland cuts power to consumers for lack of electricity
  90. France's National Assembly votes down CETA, the EU-Canada trade deal
  91. Drought cuts France's first wheat export outlook for 2027-28 by a fifth
  92. The UK cuts or delays a defence or Ukraine pledge for lack of money
  93. The US raises its tariff on UK goods above 10% or ends the UK's zero drug rate
  94. The Irish coalition loses a Dáil confidence vote
  95. The EU Court rules against Malta's shield for its online gaming sector
  96. Sabotage halts Dutch trains or a Rotterdam terminal for a day
  97. Russia breaks the Barents Sea fisheries deal with Norway
  98. Norway's gas flows to Europe fall by a third for a week
  99. Norway's Labour minority government falls
  100. Russia defies Norwegian authority on Svalbard
  101. Poland bars Chinese-made cars beyond its military sites
  102. The EU finds Poland off track on its deficit, or Warsaw cuts its 2027 defence budget
  103. Portugal's minority government falls
  104. Russian gas through Bulgaria to Serbia stops for a week
  105. An SNS-backed candidate wins Serbia's presidency
  106. A major agency cuts Slovakia's credit rating
  107. Sweden Democrats take seats in the cabinet
  108. The Arctic: one state seizes, boards or fires on another's ship or aircraft
  109. Serbia's new government applies EU sanctions on Russia
  110. Slovenia's Janša government falls before 1 Nov 2027
  111. Greece's next general election gives no party a majority
  112. A cyberattack halts a French food, health or transport service for a day or more
  113. River heat forces three or more French reactors to stop or cut output at once in summer 2027
  114. England's drought carries into 2027 with a ban on non-essential water use
  115. Another Greek-owned or Greek-flagged ship is hit or seized near Hormuz
  116. Bulgaria's 2026 budget deficit comes in at 4.5% of GDP or more
  117. Croatia's HICP inflation reaches 5%
  118. A power cut hits most of Malta again
  119. Montenegro has not closed all its EU chapters by 31 Oct 2027
  120. Gulf crude to the Netherlands stops for a month again
  121. A drone from the east damages a site or hurts someone in a Baltic state
  122. Russia detains or fires on an EU ship in reprisal for tanker seizures
  123. Bosnia still has no new state government on 30 Jun 2027
  124. Russia puts another Western company's Russian business under state control
  125. A parts shortage stops a Czech car line for two weeks
  126. State sabotage kills someone or shuts a German airport or rail line for a day
  127. Another mass crossing into Ceuta or Melilla
  128. Spain and Italy bring back border checks on each other
  129. A month-long stop in EU copper smelting or refining
  130. Fuel and cost-of-living protests force a state of emergency or a fuel blockade in France
  131. French forces sent to guard Saudi Arabia's Red Sea oil port at Yanbu are hit
  132. UK forces are drawn into combat with the Houthis
  133. Greece suspends asylum claims for sea arrivals from North Africa again
  134. Irish public-sector strikes return before April 2027
  135. Russia blocks or takes control of an EU bank's Russian unit
  136. No final US trade agreement with Switzerland and Liechtenstein by Nov 2027
  137. Lithuania shuts every crossing with Belarus for a week or more
  138. Latvia starts 2027 without an adopted state budget
  139. Monaco is still on the EU's high-risk money-laundering list on 30 Jun 2027
  140. Moldova's last two EU clusters are not opened by 30 Jun 2027
  141. State sabotage shuts a Polish route or site that supports Ukraine for two days
  142. Saudi crude to Poland falls to a trickle for a month
  143. Truck drivers blockade the EU border crossings of Bosnia or Serbia again
  144. A single wildfire of 20,000 hectares in Portugal or Greece
  145. San Marino's EU association agreement is still not applied by Nov 2027
  146. Sweden's Riksdag throws out the government's 2027 budget
  147. A missile or drone hits Cyprus or the UK bases again
  148. The US puts a tariff on Danish goods over Greenland
  149. Denmark's economy shrinks two quarters in a row
  150. Spain's next government caps rents nationwide or curbs foreign home buyers
  151. Croatia's governing coalition loses the Homeland Movement
  152. Israeli chip supply to Ireland stops for a month
  153. Irish troops deploy without a UN mandate
  154. A Reykjanes eruption cuts hot water to the peninsula for a day
  155. An Italian warship is hit near Bab el-Mandeb
  156. Malta raises its frozen retail power or fuel prices
  157. Israel or the US hits back at the Dutch settlement-goods ban with a trade or legal measure
  158. Norway blames a state for damage to a subsea cable or pipeline
  159. Jet fuel limits hit a Portuguese airport
  160. The US singles out Austria over its neutrality
  161. Balloons from Belarus halt Vilnius Airport five more times
  162. A new Russian spy case in Vienna touches the UN, IAEA or OSCE
  163. Drone sightings close Luxembourg's airport again
  164. A merchant ship is hit by a drone or missile in the central Mediterranean near Malta
  165. Drug-gang violence halts work at the port of Antwerp for a day
  166. Drone reports shut a Danish airport again
  167. A coastal wildfire forces 1,000 or more people from their homes in Croatia
  168. Drones shut a major Italian airport for three hours

Russia and Eurasia

  1. Russia and Ukraine sign a general ceasefire on the current front line
  2. Russia keeps foreign messaging services blocked nationwide
  3. Georgia's Constitutional Court bans opposition parties
  4. The US or EU sanctions a Chinese terminal or buyer for Arctic LNG 2 cargoes
  5. Attacks halt Kazakhstan's main Black Sea oil terminal for a week or more
  6. Russia and China sign a binding Power of Siberia 2 (Power of Baikal) supply contract with a price
  7. Russia's war reaches NATO's eastern flank
  8. The EU lifts or suspends its curbs on Belarusian potash
  9. Russia restarts a reactor at the occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant
  10. Russia's curbs on Armenian farm and food goods are still in force on 30 Jun 2027
  11. The Armenia-Azerbaijan peace agreement is still unsigned in October 2027
  12. Work on the Trump Route (TRIPP) has not started in Armenia by mid-2027
  13. Armenia holds its referendum on a new constitution by 3 Nov 2027
  14. Poland shuts every road and rail crossing with Belarus for a week or more
  15. The US reopens its embassy in Minsk, widening the US-EU split on Belarus
  16. The EU ends visa-free travel for ordinary Georgians
  17. The EU adopts its first sanctions on Georgian officials
  18. The EU or the US sanctions a refinery in Kazakhstan over Russian oil
  19. Kazakhstan moves to seize assets over the Kashagan sulphur fine
  20. The EU, UK or US sanctions another Kyrgyz bank
  21. Russia raises taxes again, beyond its 2027 budget package, to cover a record deficit
  22. Ukrainian drones shut a main Russian oil port for a week or more
  23. Upper Lars, Georgia's only road crossing to Russia, is shut to trucks for a week
  24. Kazakhstan leaves the OPEC+ output deal
  25. Kazakhstan's uranium output for 2026 falls short of its target
  26. Russia halts enriched uranium shipments to the US before the US ban takes full effect
  27. Flows on the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline stop for a week
  28. Russian or Belarusian ground forces attack Ukraine from Belarus
  29. An attack from Afghanistan kills or wounds foreign workers in Tajikistan
  30. TAPI gas does not reach Herat by end-October 2027
  31. Uzbekistan rations gas or power for a week in winter
  32. Uzbekistan's WTO entry slips past mid-2027
  33. An Iranian drone or missile hits Azerbaijan again
  34. Money sent home from Russia to Uzbekistan falls a tenth in a quarter

Sub-Saharan Africa

  1. DR Congo cuts its cobalt export quota below 87,000 t a year
  2. Ethiopian forces take and hold the Eritrean port of Assab
  3. Fighting between federal and Tigrayan forces goes on in at least six of the next 12 months
  4. DR Congo's Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak is still not over on 30 Jun 2027
  5. The EU deforestation rule starts to apply to cocoa on 30 Dec 2026 without another delay
  6. Namibia declares a national drought emergency in the El Niño season
  7. Famine is confirmed in a new part of Sudan
  8. The frontier debt wall: two or more governments rewrite or miss their foreign bonds
  9. Ethiopian and Eritrean armies fight each other directly
  10. Malawi devalues the official kwacha by 20% or more
  11. South Sudan's crude exports through Sudan stop for 30 days or more
  12. South Africa's regulated diesel price reaches R35 a litre
  13. Hunger in southern Angola reaches Emergency level in the El Niño lean season
  14. President Biya leaves office before 1 Nov 2027
  15. M23 seizes a town of 100,000+ people it did not hold on 1 Nov 2026
  16. DR Congo holds a constitutional referendum
  17. Ghana's 2026/27 cocoa crop comes in below 500,000 tonnes
  18. Guinea revokes or suspends the licence of another bauxite mine that is exporting
  19. Assimi Goïta stops being Mali's head of state
  20. Namibia's first offshore oil field, Venus, still has no final investment decision by 1 Nov 2027
  21. The coup belt: soldiers seize power in another West or Central African state
  22. The DA leaves South Africa's Government of National Unity
  23. Drought at Lake Kariba brings 12-hour daily power cuts back to Zambia and Zimbabwe
  24. The CEMAC states devalue the CFA franc against the euro
  25. Niger's crude exports through Benin stop for 30 days
  26. Rwanda or DR Congo formally leaves the Washington Accords
  27. The RSF takes El Obeid, the army's hub in Kordofan
  28. SACU ministers agree a new revenue-sharing formula that cuts the smaller members' shares
  29. The US removes South Africa from AGOA's duty-free list
  30. The UN cuts MINUSCA's troops or shortens its mandate
  31. Mozambique starts a restructuring of its Eurobond
  32. The Chagos treaty is still not in force on 3 Nov 2027
  33. The EU still bars fresh Namibian beef on 30 Jun 2027 after the foot-and-mouth outbreak
  34. REGIONAL. Kenya or Uganda confirms a new Ebola case
  35. Floods kill 100 or more people in Kenya, Uganda or Tanzania in one rainy season
  36. The US, EU or UK sanctions another Rwandan state body or minister
  37. Senegal asks Eurobond holders to accept longer maturities or lower coupons
  38. Somali pirates hijack three or more merchant ships
  39. South Sudan does not vote on 22 Dec 2026
  40. A cholera outbreak in Sudan passes 10,000 cases
  41. The Tanzania LNG host government agreement is still unsigned on 30 Jun 2027
  42. The Reserve Bank raises South Africa's repo rate above 7.25%
  43. Zimbabwe stops all lithium concentrate exports when its January 2027 ban takes effect
  44. Angola raises a regulated fuel price by a fifth or more in one step
  45. The MPLA wins less than half the national vote in Angola's 2027 general election
  46. Burundi devalues its official exchange rate by 30% or more
  47. Burkina Faso takes over another industrial gold mine
  48. Botswana loses its investment-grade credit rating
  49. A cocoa farmers' sales stoppage in Cote d'Ivoire visibly cuts deliveries
  50. Congo-Brazzaville has no new IMF arrangement by 30 Jun 2027
  51. Ethiopia-bound cargo through Djibouti stops for a week
  52. Ethiopia's exchange of its defaulted US$1bn Eurobond is not completed by 31 Mar 2027
  53. Moody's cuts Mauritius below investment grade
  54. Chad's forces strike or fight inside Sudan
  55. Tanzania's High Court convicts opposition leader Tundu Lissu of treason
  56. The Bank of Uganda raises its policy rate above 12%
  57. Uganda misses its June 2027 first-oil date
  58. A council removes a South African metro mayor elected after the 2026 vote
  59. Ebola reaches DR Congo's copper and cobalt belt
  60. Cabo Verde's public debt is reported at 100% of GDP or more for 2026
  61. A Houthi attack hits Djibouti
  62. Gabon misses a payment on its external commercial debt
  63. Kenya rations fuel or its petrol cover falls below 10 days
  64. The United States puts a new duty of 10% or more on Lesotho's goods
  65. An insurgent attack halts construction at the Afungi LNG site again
  66. Mauritius orders rotating power cuts because fuel or generating capacity falls short
  67. Namibia's diamond mining shrinks by 15% or more for two quarters running
  68. Nigeria's crude and condensate output falls below 1.5 million barrels a day in a monthly NUPRC report
  69. A drone strike shuts Port Sudan's port or airport for 48 hours
  70. The RSF and its allies take Ed Damazin, capital of Blue Nile state
  71. Nigeria's national power grid collapses nationwide
  72. Guinea-Bissau's junta puts off the 6 Dec 2026 elections past 31 Mar 2027
  73. Mauritius raises a Class III cyclone warning in the 2026-27 season
  74. Gunmen abduct 100 or more people in one attack in Nigeria
  75. Simandou ships less than 15 million tonnes of iron ore in 2026
  76. Madagascar's military transition misses its election month
  77. Zambia's copper output falls in 2026, below 2025's 890,346 tonnes
  78. Protests in Angola kill 10 or more people inside seven days
  79. Angola's crude output averages under 1.0 mb/d for a full quarter
  80. A losing candidate takes Gambia's 5 Dec 2026 presidential result to the Supreme Court
  81. Equatorial Guinea's 2026 licensing round signs no contract by 30 Jun 2027
  82. Kenya's August 2027 presidential vote goes to a run-off
  83. Protests in Kenya kill 20 or more people inside seven days
  84. Militant attacks stop an industrial gold mine in western or southern Mali for two weeks
  85. Uranium from Arlit's mine stock leaves Niger
  86. Election fighting returns to Mogadishu
  87. The US sanctions a Tanzanian official over the 2025 election violence
  88. Comoros' IMF programme ends without its final review completed
  89. Nigeria's presidential vote slips from 16 Jan 2027 by seven days or more
  90. Nigeria's presidential race goes to a run-off
  91. Sierra Leone's inflation passes 20% a year
  92. São Tomé and Príncipe's IMF fourth review is not completed by 30 Jun 2027
  93. Uganda's coffee exports fall by 15% or more in the first half of 2027 as EU deforestation rules apply
  94. Liberia's IMF programme stalls
  95. The EU puts Seychelles back on its tax list in 2027
  96. One attack in northern Benin kills 20 or more soldiers
  97. One attack in northern Togo kills ten or more people

Our briefs, strait closures and scenarios

From our briefs

The risks our briefs follow, with the related questions in our forecast register.

Top risks now

  1. 1A renewed US or Israeli strike on Iran by 20 Nov 2026Middle East and North Africa39 of 56 countries read are High; 13 MediumNote, : US Central Command reported strikes on Iranian territory on 30 Aug and 1 Sep 2026; this question resolves on 20 Nov under its rules.
  2. 2US tariffs on Canadian goods stay above their 2024 level and the pre-2025 terms are not restored, to 30 Sep 2027Americas14 of 36 countries read are High; 13 Medium
  3. 3Iran in July 2028: strikes go on, the regime breaks, or a step to the bombMiddle East and North Africa3 of 6 registered outcomes39 of 56 countries read are High; 13 Medium
  4. 4The 50% US duty on listed Canadian goods lasts to 31 Dec 2026Americas4 of 6 registered outcomes14 of 36 countries read are High; 13 Medium
  5. 5No fund we track commits C$1bn to a new Canadian build by 31 Oct 2027Americas3 of 5 registered outcomes8 of 13 countries read are High; 4 Medium
  6. 6A Canadian recession by the end of 2027AmericasReach provisional: no country readings yet

How this list is ranked

Strature GPS home · How the Top 10 is ranked

Event risks

Show the risks that reach a region

  • US tariffs and Canada

    Canada’s entry to the US market is no longer secured by a treaty for any good Washington names: a 50% US duty, proclaimed on 20 July 2026, applies to goods of Canada named in three lists.

  • Canada’s capital projects

    Large investors pledged capital to Canada, but for 6 of 7 pledges our brief found no placement to 27 September 2026; projects with a published or signed government term went ahead 6 times in 15, against 12 in 58 without.

    • Leading outcome F-0152 · 27%
    • Reach 8 of 14 countries read are High

  • Taiwan

    Taiwan supplies about a fifth of most large importers’ chips, and the Taiwan Strait carries about a fifth of the world’s sea trade; China’s armed forces have staged no named large exercise around Taiwan since December 2025.

    • Leading outcome F-0199 · 47%
    • Reach 7 of 21 countries read are High

  • US–China trade

    China’s goods surplus reached a record US$1.18 trillion in 2025 on the revised customs basis; our brief finds China’s export-control leverage suspended, not removed, to 9–10 November 2026; the US–China tariff truce runs to 10 January 2027.

Strait closures

Scenario cases

  • Strait of Hormuz closed, restricted or unsafe: a scenario

    In a 30-day closure some oil never arrives at all: of the economies shown, China loses the most, 310-317 million barrels.

    Illustrative arithmetic on stated assumptions; not a forecast; not advice. Illustrative arithmetic on stated assumptions; it does not say whether, when or for how long a strait will close.

  • Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb closed together: a scenario

    Closing Bab el-Mandeb as well adds delay, not loss: Saudi crude sent round Africa arrives 27-36 days late.

    Illustrative arithmetic on stated assumptions; not a forecast; not advice. Illustrative arithmetic on stated assumptions; it does not say whether, when or for how long a strait will close.

  • Red Sea: half of traffic avoids Bab el-Mandeb for 90 days

    Going round the Cape for 90 days loses nothing on lanes with a cited Cape route: 66 million barrels of the economies shown arrive late, most of it the EU's.

    Illustrative arithmetic on stated assumptions; not a forecast; not advice. Illustrative arithmetic on stated assumptions; it does not say whether, when or for how long a strait will close.

  • Taiwan Strait closed to transit for 7 days

    No oil flow on file crosses the Taiwan Strait, so no volumes are shown; ships routed east of Taiwan add up to 3 days.

    Illustrative arithmetic on stated assumptions; not a forecast; not advice. Illustrative arithmetic on stated assumptions; it does not say whether, when or for how long a strait will close.

  • Strait of Malacca closed for 14 days

    Closing the Strait of Malacca causes delay, not loss: ships go by Lombok and Makassar, about 3 days longer.

    Illustrative arithmetic on stated assumptions; not a forecast; not advice. Illustrative arithmetic on stated assumptions; it does not say whether, when or for how long a strait will close.

All scenario cases

Full analyst view

How the Top 10 is ranked

How the Top 10 is ranked

Each week we rank the risks on this list by one stated rule: the probability in our forecast register, times how many countries the risk reaches.

  1. Probability. Each risk is tied to one question in our forecast register. Where the question has several alternatives, we add the probabilities of the alternatives that describe the harm, and we name them. The register's figures are used unchanged.
  2. Reach. We count the countries our published country readings place in the High band for that risk, and add half of those in the Medium band. Low counts zero. The EU (27) entry is not counted as a country; its member countries are counted where our readings list them.
  3. Rank. We multiply the two and sort from highest. Ties go to the higher probability, then to the earlier resolution date.

Where we have no country readings for a risk yet, reach is the number of countries its forecast names, each counted as Medium, and the item says “reach provisional”. Only open forecasts that resolve within the next 24 months are ranked. A risk is shown only when its probability times its reach comes to 1 or more, so the list can hold fewer than ten.

Our research team drafts the list and the Principal signs it off each week. We do not move items by hand. When we leave an item out, we say so under the list.

What the ranking is not. Reach counts only the countries we have read, so a risk we have read for fewer countries can rank lower than it should. The ranking does not measure how severe a risk is for any one company or country. Each probability is our estimate, scored when its question resolves. General research, not advice.

  • Illustrative arithmetic on stated assumptions; not a forecast; not advice.
  • Illustrative arithmetic on stated assumptions; it does not say whether, when or for how long a strait will close.
  • Nearest related forecast; not a closure probability.
  • General research, not advice.

How the Top 10 is ranked

The evidence file: the reports behind these cards

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