DR Congo's Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak is still not over on 30 Jun 2027
The test By 30 Jun 2027, neither WHO nor DR Congo's health ministry has declared the end of the Ebola disease outbreak caused by Bundibugyo virus that DR Congo declared in May 2026.
Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
What changed
Dated, newest first
- 10,532 confirmed cases and 5,126 deaths in DR Congo in data up to 1 Nov 2026, up from 7,475 cases on 17 Sep; eight provinces affected; community transmission ongoing [1]
- Imported case confirmed in Kenya (6 Oct 2026); health worker evacuated to the Netherlands (1 Oct); case reported in Nigeria (20 Oct) with travel history to Uganda, evacuated to Switzerland [1]
Why it matters
DR Congo's Ebola outbreak caused by Bundibugyo virus, declared in May 2026 and a public health emergency of international concern since 17 May, had 10,532 confirmed cases and 5,126 deaths in data up to 1 Nov 2026; eight provinces are affected and community transmission is ongoing. WHO says no approved vaccine or specific treatment exists for this virus.
Why Likelihood 7 Base case on the hard facts: confirmed cases rose about sevenfold between 1 Jul and 1 Nov 2026, eight provinces are affected with community transmission ongoing, and no approved vaccine or specific treatment exists. Brake: Uganda closed its chains. No cited sign of decline, so not 6.
The other facts on file (3)
- DR Congo declared its 17th Ebola outbreak since 1976 on 15 May 2026 in Ituri (Rwampara, Mongbwalu, Bunia), with 246 suspected cases and 80 deaths at that date [3] (16 May 2026)
- WHO's Director-General determined on 17 May 2026 that the outbreak is a public health emergency of international concern (date as corrected on 26 May) [3] (26 May 2026)
- 1,460 confirmed cases and 452 deaths in DR Congo by 1 Jul 2026; 20 confirmed cases in Uganda; one linked case in France; risk very high nationally, high for bordering countries, low globally; no approved vaccines or specific treatments [2] (3 Jul 2026)
Where it sits
How it spreads
Sample, no data on file. No cited flows by country on file for this risk.
By 30 Jun 2027, neither WHO nor DR Congo's health ministry has declared the end of the Ebola disease outbreak caused by Bundibugyo virus that DR Congo declared in May 2026.
Not under wayChannels 3 on the card
- CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
- Eastern DR CongoEight provinces are affected, with community transmission ongoing; Ituri held most confirmed cases on 1 Jul 2026 [1][2].
- Regional travel and tradeWHO rates the risk high for countries bordering DR Congo or Uganda; cases have reached Kenya and Nigeria [1][2].
Sectors 1
- Health
Countries 4
Who is exposed
No figure on file: Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda, Kenya, Nigeria.
- Sectors
- Health
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
Turns down
Weekly cases fall from early 2027 and the countdown to an end declaration starts.
- S2
Long tail
Transmission continues past mid-2027 at lower levels.
- S3
Wider spread
Another country reports its own local transmission.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | ECDC updates from January 2027 showing falling counts |
| S2 | New confirmed cases still reported in May 2027 |
| S3 | A WHO outbreak notice naming local cases outside DR Congo |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
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The other side
Uganda had reported no new case since 21 Jun 2026 when WHO wrote on 3 Jul [2], which shows that chains of spread can be closed.
Connected in Strature
- Democratic Republic of the Congo
- Uganda
- Kenya
- Nigeria
- M23 seizes a town of 100,000+ people it did not hold on 1 Nov 2026 Shares a channel: Ituri, North Kivu and South Kivu, three of the outbreak's affected provinces, are also the eastern conflict zone.
Sources
3 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- Ebola disease outbreak caused by Bundibugyo virus – Multi-country – 2026 (update of 3 Nov 2026). European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control · 3 Nov 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- Disease Outbreak News: Ebola disease caused by Bundibugyo virus – Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda. World Health Organization · 3 Jul 2026 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- Disease Outbreak News: Ebola disease caused by Bundibugyo virus – Democratic Republic of the Congo. World Health Organization · 16 May 2026 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks