48 questions answered in 9 published briefs · Newest release 1 Oct 2026
Geoeconomic · Geopolitical · Geotechnology
The questions our published briefs answer that touch China.
“One in practice: revenue, supply and compliance exposure answer to the same dated decisions; their shared hinge, as announced on 24 September, moved to 10 January 2027.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Affected United States
“They answer to the same small set of decisions in Beijing and Washington, and when one of those decisions is taken all three can move together.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Affected United States
“On 24 September 2026 the US Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, said on Fox News that the truce would be extended to 10 January 2027, as CNBC reported the same day.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Affected United States
“Rhodium Group, rebuilding the year from activity and investment data, estimated real growth of 2.5% to 3.0% in 2025, about half the official pace (Rhodium Group, 22 Dec 2025).”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“The IMF put the 2025 augmented deficit at 14.3% of GDP, against a 4% official headline, as the IMF reports it (IMF, Feb 2026).”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“Only the Taiwan chip base is high for five reader types; supply and compliance are high for exporters and operators.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Affected Taiwan
“On the IEA's 2026 outlook it held 85% of rare-earth refining in 2025, down from over 90% in 2023, as new projects in the United States and higher output in Malaysia came on stream.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Affected United States, Malaysia
“Nvidia's latest filing makes the point again: Hopper shipments to China were under 1% of its data-centre revenue in the quarter to 26 July 2026”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Affected United States
“The source's analysts read any near-term move as likelier to begin as a quarantine or blockade than as an assault (AEI and ISW, The Diplomat, as cited by the source; as researched 19 Jul 2026).”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Affected Taiwan, United States
“The US Department of Defense's December 2025 report says China's cyber actors continued in 2024 to pre-position attack capabilities against the United States and its allies (as reported by Breaking Defense).”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Affected United States
“A bank, logistics firm or component maker with Chinese counterparties inherits whatever those counterparties do with Russia and Iran.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“As Linklaters and others describe it, the first, on the security of industrial and supply chains, provides for investigations of foreign firms that interrupt normal transactions with Chinese counterparties or adopt discriminatory measures against them.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“The European Union Chamber of Commerce in China's 2026 survey found 68% of 549 respondents saying business had become more difficult over the past year”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“The two leaders met again in Beijing in May 2026 and in Washington in September 2026, when the extension to 10 January 2027 was announced (CNBC, 24 Sep 2026).”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Affected United States
“From the expulsion of a vice chairman in October 2025 to the expulsion of the first-ranked vice chairman in September 2026, four dated steps reached the most senior officers.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“For the call this matters as a missing signal, not a forecast: a firm cannot watch an heir's rise as an early warning when there is no heir.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“The ten tails are kept as named ways the picture could break, each with its early sign; the structure of the axes is in the annex.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“The call would be wrong if the three faces moved apart at the next dated decision”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“Vietnam +2.1 points and Mexico +2.0 points of US import share since 2018”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“74–196 million barrels could leave Saudi Arabia in six weeks with the shuttle running, but none bought on 25 September was on file to land that soon.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“Adding the shortest timed voyage (Ulsan 21 days, Zhanjiang 18, Sikka 3), the first cargo reaches Korea after 58 days, China after 55 and India after 40 at the earliest.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“Iran 26%, Greece 17%, China 9% of 111 counted transits; the rest unattributed”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“It has started, but small: in 12 months to July 2026, 11.3 of 96.8 bcm of gas exports and 32.6 of 256.0 million m³ of crude went beyond the US.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“122 export cargo records, June 2025 to July 2026: Korea 46, China 36, Japan 25, Taiwan 10, three others 5.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“For this class the question is reliability, and the measured answer is: demonstrated, small and single-sourced.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“UN Comtrade records China, Japan and Korea as the largest 2025 destinations of Canadian coal and of ores, slag and ash; they are also the three largest destinations of the gas cargoes”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“No. The more concentrated side is supply: China supplied 40.9 per cent of Vietnam's 2025 imports, against a 32.2 per cent US share of exports, for as long as assembly runs on imported components.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Vietnam Affected United States
“The United States took 32.2% of what Vietnam sold and supplied 4.2% of what it bought. China supplied 40.9% of what it bought and took 14.8% of what it sold.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Vietnam Affected United States
“Counterparty concentration, measured as a Herfindahl index over countries, was higher on imports than on exports in 2023, and highest of all inside chapter 85's imports.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Vietnam Affected South Korea
“An interruption in supply acts on the ability to produce, not only on revenue: where the outbound leg consists of assembling the inbound one, a supply shock stops output rather than scaling it.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Vietnam Affected South Korea
“China supplied 40.9% of Vietnam's imports in the NSO's 2025 tables and 41.0% in January to August 2026.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Vietnam
“The call would be wrong if, in Vietnam's own partner tables, the import side became the less concentrated side of the account, or if China's share of imports fell below the United States' share of exports.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Vietnam Affected United States
“Mainly a Taiwan continuity exposure, not a China-demand one: Taiwan-only nodes earned 33 per cent of second-quarter 2026 wafer revenue, China-based customers 6 per cent, until leading-edge volume starts elsewhere.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Taiwan
“No. China-based customers were 6% of 2Q26 revenue, down from 12% in 2023.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Taiwan
“In Taiwan: Fab 18 (3nm) and Fabs 20 and 22 (2nm), on TSMC's table of 28 Feb 2026.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“3nm or 2nm volume production reported outside Taiwan, or China-based revenue back above a tenth.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Taiwan
“The source edition translated a US–China outlook into three pathways for TSMC. None of them is scored here, and this edition does not rank them.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Taiwan Affected United States
“TSMC's Nanjing fab (16nm) received US-origin items under a Validated End-User authorization until December 2025. TSMC reports that the U.S. Department of Commerce then granted TSMC Nanjing an annual export licence”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Taiwan Affected United States
“The source's central judgement on Iran's external position was that the leading powers now manage Iran rather than balance it.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“Yes. In 2026 US exposure was rule-set exposure, written in Washington; the next dated tests are the 3 November midterm and a China truce end announced for 10 January 2027.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary United States
“On 24 September 2026 the US Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, said on Fox News that the truce would be extended to 10 January 2027, as CNBC reported the same day.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary United States
“The source's reading was that three of the five forces were partly self-authored: the build-out, the redesign of credit and the coercive use of the dollar.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary United States
“The source carried these as facts side by side, not as a proven causal chain: whether the staffing cuts weakened the wartime response is contested and was not adopted.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary United States Affected Iran
“The two-month extension moves the decision past the midterm and past the end of the stopgap funding measure.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary United States
“The US Treasury Secretary said the US-China truce would be extended to 10 January 2027, two months beyond its November expiry.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary United States
“Repriced cargo by cargo: by mid-2026 LNG kept under a tenth and crude under a quarter of their late-2025 flow through the Strait, and by 28 September crude, on Kpler's pre-war baseline, was back; products were not.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“On the Kiel Institute's model of a full closure, US welfare falls by 0.07 per cent while losses in South Asia and Africa are 10 to 20 times larger in percentage terms.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“The two largest strategic holders behind the Strait were not part of it. EIA estimates China's strategic stock at 1,492 million barrels in the second quarter of 2026 and India's at 21 million; neither country is an IEA member.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.No question matches the chosen filters.
Each answer is quoted verbatim from the brief. Answers with a register ID are our estimates, scored when they resolve; the others are the brief’s reading of the evidence, not forecasts.
Regions in these questions Asia · East Asia · Europe · Indo-Pacific · Middle East · North America · South Asia · Southeast Asia
ISO 3166-1 name: China (CHN). Country and territory names follow common usage and imply no position on sovereignty.
Edition 1.0 · Released 1 Oct 2026 · Archive edition
Each is our estimate, scored when it resolves. Published briefs only; the full register lists every one.
No registered forecast is attached to these questions yet.
| ID | Forecast | Our estimate | Issued | Resolves by | Status |
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Q-023 · Edition 1.0
S-001 · Edition 1.0
T-001 · Edition 1.0
C-001 · Edition 1.0
X-001 · Edition 1.0
C-002 · Edition 1.0
C-003 · Edition 1.0
C-004 · Edition 1.0
T-003 · Edition 1.0
General research for general circulation; not investment, legal or tax advice and not tailored to any reader. Every probability is our estimate, scored when it resolves.
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