Most tariffs look set to stay through 2027; a new-Congress law cutting one: 12% by 31 December 2027, our estimate, set by the firm, scored when it resolves.
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Written for this page by Strature from the brief’s free layers and the forecast register; the answer above is quoted as printed.
Democrats hold Congress from 3 January 2027, as reported. Every tariff programme in force rests on a trade law in which Congress handed the President the power to set duties.
12% is one of six scenarios to 31 December 2027: a law of the new (120th) Congress, signed by the President or passed over his veto, ends, cuts or makes subject to Congress's approval a Section 232, 301 or 338 tariff programme, and the cut stands on 31 December 2027. To 3 November 2027 that route is 10%. The likeliest scenario is a presidential cut to Canada's 50% duty, at 34%; no cut at all, 25%. Each is our estimate, scored when it resolves.
Will the new Congress roll back the tariffs?
The forecast register’s own words, quoted as registered; a registered forecast is never edited.
F-0250 · New Congress cuts duty by law (to 31 December 2027) · 12% · resolves by 31 Dec 2027
“Resolves if: An Act of Congress or joint resolution enacted by the new (120th) Congress between 3 Jan 2027 and 31 Dec 2027, signed by the President or passed over his veto by two-thirds of each House, ends, cuts or makes subject to congressional approval a tariff programme in force on 4 Nov 2026 (Section 232, Section 301 or Section 338), and the cut stands on 31 Dec 2027; whatever the President or the courts also do.”
Each answer is quoted verbatim from the brief, with the section that answers it and the countries it touches. Answers with a register ID are our estimates, scored when they resolve; the others are the brief’s reading of the evidence, not forecasts.
“Most tariffs look set to stay through 2027; a new-Congress law cutting one: 12% by 31 December 2027, our estimate, set by the firm, scored when it resolves.”
On the register: F-0250 12%, open. The forecast register
Primary United States
“Most tariffs in force today look set to stay through 2027, and some will rise.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary United States
“The firm puts the President cutting it, with no law, at 33% within a year (to 3 November 2027), against 10% for a law cutting any tariff.”
our estimate, scored when it resolvesOn the register: F-0245 33%, open · F-0244 10%, open. The forecast register
Primary United States Affected Canada
“The firm puts a court ruling stopping a tariff, with no law or presidential cut beside it, at 4% by 3 November 2027 and 4% by 31 December 2027.”
our estimate, scored when it resolvesOn the register: F-0247 4%, open · F-0253 4%, open. The forecast register
Primary United States
“The firm puts a law of the new Congress cutting a tariff, by any route, at 10% by 3 November 2027 and 12% by 31 December 2027.”
our estimate, scored when it resolvesOn the register: F-0244 10%, open · F-0250 12%, open. The forecast register
Primary United States
“The firm puts a presidential cut of another programme, such as a whole partner or sector, at 21% within a year (to 3 November 2027)”
our estimate, scored when it resolvesOn the register: F-0246 21%, open. The forecast register
Primary United States Affected Mexico
“The likeliest scenario is a presidential cut to Canada's 50% duty, at 34%; no cut at all, 25%.”
our estimate, scored when it resolvesOn the register: F-0251 34%, open · F-0254 25%, open. The forecast register
Primary United States Affected Canada
“Every tariff programme in force today rests on a trade law in which Congress handed the President the power to set duties.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary United States
“The best drew 52 votes, 15 short of the 67 an override needs”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary United States
“The 50% duty on listed Canadian goods widened in September and again in October 2026, while both governments spoke of a deal.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary United States Affected Canada
“Courts ruled against two tariff laws in 2026, and both times the duty was replaced the same day or the ruling was stayed.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary United States
“Refunds took back 45.5% of the customs duties collected in the year to September 2026.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary United States
“Borrowing room could run out as early as February 2027, though the projected hard deadline is about February 2028, after the question closes.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary United States
“The calendar to July 2027 holds proclaimed duty rises beside the dates on which a cut could come.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary United States Affected China
“US imports from Mexico rose 20.7% in January to September 2026 against the same months of 2025, while China's fell.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Registered forecasts are never changed: they stay as issued and are scored as registered. Facts found after the research date are listed here with their date and source.
Each estimate is our estimate, scored when it resolves.
| No. | Forecast | Our estimate | Issued | Resolves | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F-0244 | New Congress cuts duty by law (to 3 November 2027) | 10% | Issued 6 Nov 2026 | Resolves 3 Nov 2027 | Open |
| F-0245 | President cuts Canada's 50% duty (to 3 November 2027) | 32.7% | Issued 6 Nov 2026 | Resolves 3 Nov 2027 | Open |
| F-0246 | President cuts another duty (to 3 November 2027) | 21.3% | Issued 6 Nov 2026 | Resolves 3 Nov 2027 | Open |
| F-0247 | A court stops a duty (to 3 November 2027) | 3.8% | Issued 6 Nov 2026 | Resolves 3 Nov 2027 | Open |
| F-0248 | No duty is cut (to 3 November 2027) | 28.2% | Issued 6 Nov 2026 | Resolves 3 Nov 2027 | Open |
| F-0249 | All other outcomes (to 3 November 2027) | 4% | Issued 6 Nov 2026 | Resolves 3 Nov 2027 | Open |
| F-0250 | New Congress cuts duty by law (to 31 December 2027) | 12% | Issued 6 Nov 2026 | Resolves 31 Dec 2027 | Open |
| F-0251 | President cuts Canada's 50% duty (to 31 December 2027) | 33.6% | Issued 6 Nov 2026 | Resolves 31 Dec 2027 | Open |
| F-0252 | President cuts another duty (to 31 December 2027) | 21.2% | Issued 6 Nov 2026 | Resolves 31 Dec 2027 | Open |
| F-0253 | A court stops a duty (to 31 December 2027) | 3.8% | Issued 6 Nov 2026 | Resolves 31 Dec 2027 | Open |
| F-0254 | No duty is cut (to 31 December 2027) | 25.4% | Issued 6 Nov 2026 | Resolves 31 Dec 2027 | Open |
| F-0255 | All other outcomes (to 31 December 2027) | 4% | Issued 6 Nov 2026 | Resolves 31 Dec 2027 | Open |
No fact has been added since the research date.
No new forecast is issued with these facts; a new view would be a new, separately dated forecast.
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