68 questions answered in 5 published briefs · Newest release 2 Oct 2026
Geoeconomic · Geopolitical
The questions our published briefs answer that touch Canada.
“Not quickly. A fund we track taking a C$1bn-plus build stake by 31 October 2027: 43% (16% with a government term, 27% without), our estimate, scored when it resolves.”
our estimate, scored when it resolvesOn the register: F-0151 16%, open · F-0152 27%, open. The forecast register
Affected United Arab Emirates, United States
“Pledged, and mostly not yet placed: for 6 of 7 pledges we found no placement to 27 September 2026.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Affected United Arab Emirates
“Little: only 9 of 50 undecided large projects suit an infrastructure fund.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“A signal, not a guarantee: projects with a term went ahead more often, though not reliably.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“Costs rose after the decision on half the projects with a cost record; that is the risk to price.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“Since September 2020 the funds we track have closed 14 counted deals in Canadian infrastructure. Of these, 12 were in operating assets or in businesses that operate and build at once”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“The three fund laws we could read, those of CPP Investments, PSP Investments and La Caisse, set no geographic floor or ceiling.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“Foreign fund managers already own and buy Canadian infrastructure, but we found no closing by a foreign sovereign investor from the pledges to 27 September 2026.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Affected United Arab Emirates
“By an anchor deal we mean a first large transaction by the Maple Fund, which other funds might follow. For the Maple Fund, up to C$50bn from CPP Investments and Brookfield, we found no transaction by 27 September 2026.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“Only 9 are paid for providing a network or facility service: gas pipelines, gas export terminals, a hydro expansion, a hydro-fibre link and a carbon-storage hub.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“On this analysis, no binding bid can be priced until the concession, charge and tax terms are published.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“Counting only terms in place when the decision was taken, projects with a published or signed government term went ahead 6 times in 15 (40%), against 12 in 58 (about 21%) without.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“With Indigenous equity or an agreement but no term, 5 of 18 projects went ahead (about 28%), against 7 of 40 with neither (about 18%).”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“In manufacturing as a whole, used as the control, Canadian firms earned 9.0% on equity against 15.3% in the United States, a gap of 6.3 points.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Affected United States
“On this line, the overrun, and who bears it, matters more to the return than the value of any term; another regulated build needs its own figures.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“On a regulated project, the overrun and who bears it are best priced before any term is valued.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“Of 14 notices on 11 large projects since January 2024, 10 give no reason.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“6 of them are large Canadian industrial projects with a cost record. On 3 of them, the cost rose 22% to 30% after the decision (Exhibit X17).”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“The two futures with a new build stake by a fund we track, with or without a government term, come to 43% together, our estimate, scored when it resolves.”
our estimate, scored when it resolvesOn the register: F-0151 16%, open · F-0152 27%, open. The forecast register
“Twelve of the twenty signposts carry a date; four fall in October 2026, beginning with the Alberta pipeline's 1 October listing target.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“We could not price Canadian infrastructure against US, European or listed peers with evidence we can publish.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“It has started, but small: in 12 months to July 2026, 11.3 of 96.8 bcm of gas exports and 32.6 of 256.0 million m³ of crude went beyond the US.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“Of that, 11.7% of the gas (11.34 bcm) and 12.7% of the crude (32.6 million m³) went to countries other than the United States.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Affected United States
“July 2025 is the first month in which Statistics Canada publishes any natural gas export to a country other than the United States.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“122 export cargo records, June 2025 to July 2026: Korea 46, China 36, Japan 25, Taiwan 10, three others 5.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“By volume, the United States took 88.3% of Canadian gas exports and 87.3% of crude exports in the 12 months to July 2026”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Affected United States
“For July 2026 the regulator lists 0.70 bcm from Kitimat and the agency 1.21 bcm of non-US gas exports, 42.2% apart. Across July 2025 to July 2026 the two agree within 1% in 6 of 13 months.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“The Trans Mountain system's available capacity was 143 thousand cubic metres a day (899 thousand barrels a day) in June 2026.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“No route used for this brief publishes a project-by-project register of what is under construction, with a capacity and a date, at the standard the flow data meets.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“The binding link is scale, and on the measured record it binds on capacity rather than on demand.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“The first is geography made durable by capital: the pipeline network to the United States is built, and the measured Pacific marine route is one dock for crude and one terminal for nearly all the gas.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Affected United States
“The absolute numbers are small and the denominators are large. Over the 12 months to July 2026 the non-US gas flow was 11.34 bcm and the non-US crude flow 32.6 million m³.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“No source used carries regulatory decisions, policy positions, permit status or intergovernmental agreements at the standard the rest of this brief meets.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“Of 122 export cargo records from Kitimat, all are long-term and all name a single licence holder. The buyer base is spread across seven destinations; the seller base is one.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“For this class the question is reliability, and the measured answer is: demonstrated, small and single-sourced.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“For this class the question is whether Canadian diversification reduces available supply, and the measured answer is yes, by a small amount.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Affected United States
“UN Comtrade records China, Japan and Korea as the largest 2025 destinations of Canadian coal and of ores, slag and ash; they are also the three largest destinations of the gas cargoes”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“The reading would be wrong if non-US gas exports fell below 0.39 bcm, their first month's level, in any month of the next published year.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“Not on the published record: 6 of the 35 full transits in 2025 were commercial, and Canada publishes no Arctic icebreaking fee, so the Coast Guard sells no Arctic escort slot.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“In the 2025 season 35 ships completed a full transit: 19 yachts or other private vessels, 10 passenger voyages and 6 in the commercial category.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“The publisher states that 56 of its 465 transits conveyed commercial cargo or fuel, and that 48 of those 56 were made by Wagenborg vessels.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“PAME's count is overwhelmingly destination traffic: community resupply, mine supply, fishing and cruise segments that arrive and leave the way they came. Its growth says little about ocean-to-ocean transit.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“Routes 1 and 2 carried 24 of 465 transits; the two routes through the 6.4-metre Simpson Strait carried 188.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“On measured ice charts the northern route lost up to 14 weeks from 2007 to 2021.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“None of the sources read offers a scheduled, contractually guaranteed escort slot at any price; privately chartered ice support was not examined.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“The International Navigating Conditions exclude two areas that together cover every route through the Passage.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“The Joint War Committee's current listed areas, circular JWLA-035 of 16 September 2026, contain no Arctic, Canadian, Baffin, Beaufort, Barents, Bering or polar entry.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Affected Russia
“A 2017 review for the UK Government Office for Science describes the Passage as a route from the US East Coast to Asia, and the Northern Sea Route as the Europe to Asia route.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Affected United States
“On the record read here, the dispute has never been joined over a merchant hull.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Affected United States
“In the Nunavut Settlement Area, the Nunavut Agreement governs what is built and operated; ship movements not tied to a project are outside its screening.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“The Vessel Traffic Services Zones Regulations, SOR/2025-275, published in the Canada Gazette on 31 December 2025, came into force on 31 March 2026 and consolidate three regimes into one.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“Ships with protected tanks may continue until 1 July 2029, and a coastal state may waive the rule for its own-flag ships in its own waters until the same date.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“This brief does not hold the 2026 season.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“Exposure is set by the tariff line, not the sector: 666 US lines carry the Section 338 duty of 50 per cent, and 68 are excluded from importation since 29 September 2026.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Affected United States
“Three headings have closed: 9903.05.85, 9903.45.27 and 9903.53.01. The other 23 are in force.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Affected United States
“Heading 9903.03.14 holds 513 lines. Its four largest groups are wood (64 lines), furniture (56), electrical goods (39) and paper (31): 190 of 513, or 37%.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Affected United States
“CUSMA origin removes the broad 35% measure and the 10% measures; the schedule gives it no effect on the Section 338 duty or on Section 232.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Affected United States
“The value of the trade on the Section 338 lists is NOT DISCLOSED here. What would close it: a licensed trade series read against the 666 lines.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Affected United States
“The four are cases, not a sample, and a firm can move between conditions on a single proclamation.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Affected United States
“Proclamation 11063, titled with respect to motor vehicles, excludes one tariff line from importation: motorcycles over 800 cc. It reaches no cars, trucks or parts.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Affected United States
“The published position of both documents is that the exemption reaches the dairy list only.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Affected United States
“The duty collected on US imports from Canada was 2.8% of their value in July 2026, against 6.5% for imports from all origins.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Affected United States
“For lines on 9903.03.13 and 9903.03.14, the measures the United States names are a federal quota allocation and a federal Order in Council (SOR/2025-118), both published.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Affected United States
“It reaches a Canadian firm whose US revenue is a federal contract rather than a shipment, and it is not a customs matter.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Affected United States
“The reading would change with a new proclamation amending the exclusion annexes or the duty lists, or a revision of U.S. note 51; none was found to 30 September 2026.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Affected United States
“The source's reading holds on the new record: tariff exposure in 2026 is set by which statute is in force, which tier a partner sits in and whether goods qualify, not by a stable schedule.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary United States
“No balancing coalition formed: Argentina aligned with Washington, Mexico and Canada hedged, Brazil opened a trade track with China, and Colombia broke with Washington rhetorically.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“For the source, the region reaches business through the USMCA perimeter rather than through the border itself: qualification decides most of the tariff bill, and the first measures that ignore qualification fell on Canada.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary United States Affected Mexico
No question matches the chosen filters.
Each answer is quoted verbatim from the brief. Answers with a register ID are our estimates, scored when they resolve; the others are the brief’s reading of the evidence, not forecasts.
Regions in these questions Arctic · East Asia · Europe · Latin America · Middle East · North America · Southeast Asia
ISO 3166-1 name: Canada (CAN). Country and territory names follow common usage and imply no position on sovereignty.
Edition 1.1 · Released 2 Oct 2026 · Archive edition
Edition 1.0 · Released 1 Oct 2026 · Archive edition
Edition 1.0 · Released 1 Oct 2026 · Archive edition
Edition 1.0 · Released 30 Sep 2026 · Archive edition
Each is our estimate, scored when it resolves. Published briefs only; the full register lists every one.
| ID | Forecast | Our estimate | Issued | Resolves by | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F-0151 | a build with a government term | Our estimate 16% | Issued 28 Sep 2026 | Resolves by 31 Oct 2027 | Status Open |
| F-0152 | a build on private contracts only | Our estimate 27% | Issued 28 Sep 2026 | Resolves by 31 Oct 2027 | Status Open |
The full brief is supplied to organisations through the request form on the brief’s page: they accept its terms and confirm a work email, and it is free during the introductory period.
Q-021 · Edition 1.1
T-001 · Edition 1.0
T-002 · Edition 1.0
C-004 · Edition 1.0
Q-024 · Edition 1.0
General research for general circulation; not investment, legal or tax advice and not tailored to any reader. Every probability is our estimate, scored when it resolves.
Suggest it for the series; if we take it up, the answer is published to everyone.
