19 questions answered in 4 published briefs · Newest release 1 Oct 2026
Geoeconomic · Geopolitical · Geotechnology
The questions our published briefs answer that touch Taiwan.
“Mainly a Taiwan continuity exposure, not a China-demand one: Taiwan-only nodes earned 33 per cent of second-quarter 2026 wafer revenue, China-based customers 6 per cent, until leading-edge volume starts elsewhere.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Affected China
“No. China-based customers were 6% of 2Q26 revenue, down from 12% in 2023.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Affected China
“In Taiwan: Fab 18 (3nm) and Fabs 20 and 22 (2nm), on TSMC's table of 28 Feb 2026.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“3nm and 2nm earned 33% of 2Q26 wafer revenue; 7nm and below, 77%.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“The two largest took 36% of 2025 net revenue; the ten largest, 78%.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“2 to 3 points of gross margin early, 3 to 4 points later.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“3nm or 2nm volume production reported outside Taiwan, or China-based revenue back above a tenth.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Affected China
“The source edition translated a US–China outlook into three pathways for TSMC. None of them is scored here, and this edition does not rank them.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Affected United States, China
“In that tail the exposed quantity is the leading-edge franchise, not a revenue slice: the nodes made only in Taiwan earned 33% of 2Q26 wafer revenue, and 7nm and below 77%.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“TSMC's Nanjing fab (16nm) received US-origin items under a Validated End-User authorization until December 2025. TSMC reports that the U.S. Department of Commerce then granted TSMC Nanjing an annual export licence”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Affected United States, China
“TSMC's third-quarter 2026 results were not yet published; its results conference is scheduled for 15 Oct 2026, with a quiet period from 5 to 14 Oct.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“It has started, but small: in 12 months to July 2026, 11.3 of 96.8 bcm of gas exports and 32.6 of 256.0 million m³ of crude went beyond the US.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“122 export cargo records, June 2025 to July 2026: Korea 46, China 36, Japan 25, Taiwan 10, three others 5.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“For this class the question is reliability, and the measured answer is: demonstrated, small and single-sourced.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“Only the Taiwan chip base is high for five reader types; supply and compliance are high for exporters and operators.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary China
“The source's analysts read any near-term move as likelier to begin as a quarantine or blockade than as an assault (AEI and ISW, The Diplomat, as cited by the source; as researched 19 Jul 2026).”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary China Affected United States
“The ten tails are kept as named ways the picture could break, each with its early sign; the structure of the axes is in the annex.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“The source treated allies as re-pricing the credibility of US commitments rather than US capability.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary United States Affected Germany
“The source's reading was that four of the six have a US decision somewhere in the chain that would set them off, and that they are correlated through the war: treating them as independent understates the joint exposure.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary United States
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Each answer is quoted verbatim from the brief. Answers with a register ID are our estimates, scored when they resolve; the others are the brief’s reading of the evidence, not forecasts.
Regions in these questions East Asia · Europe · Indo-Pacific · Middle East · North America · Southeast Asia
ISO 3166-1 name: Taiwan, Province of China (TWN). Country and territory names follow common usage and imply no position on sovereignty.
Edition 1.0 · Released 1 Oct 2026 · Archive edition
Each is our estimate, scored when it resolves. Published briefs only; the full register lists every one.
No registered forecast is attached to these questions yet.
| ID | Forecast | Our estimate | Issued | Resolves by | Status |
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The full brief is supplied to organisations through the request form on the brief’s page: they accept its terms and confirm a work email, and it is free during the introductory period.
T-001 · Edition 1.0
X-001 · Edition 1.0
C-003 · Edition 1.0
C-004 · Edition 1.0
General research for general circulation; not investment, legal or tax advice and not tailored to any reader. Every probability is our estimate, scored when it resolves.
Suggest it for the series; if we take it up, the answer is published to everyone.
