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World risk · Energy and resources · Gulf & Hormuz (Iran war)

A fuel shortfall forces rolling power cuts in Taiwan

The test Between 26 Oct 2026 and 31 Oct 2027, Taiwan's power utility or the government orders rotating power cuts (rolling blackouts or rationing) for customers in Taiwan because fuel supply (LNG or coal) falls short, not because of a grid fault.

Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
3Low steady this month
Impact
5Elevated steady this month
Breadth5
Depth5
Duration2
Hard to substitute6
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. Gas prices for the power sector up more than 70% since late February; fuel costs NT$160bn (US$4.92bn) above pre-war levels this year if gas prices hold to year-end; accumulated losses near NT$420bn; 12.83% rate rise proposed, review in December [1]
  2. TSMC 3Q26 net revenue NT$1,494.24bn (US$46.72bn); 3nm 33% and 2nm 8% of wafer revenue [9]
  3. TSMC 3nm and 2nm made in volume only in Taiwan; North America-based customers 79% of net revenue in 3Q26 (Strature dossier record) [10]
  4. QatarEnergy force majeure on Asian and European deliveries extended to end-November (press report citing Bloomberg; Taiwan not named) [6]

Why it matters

Gas makes 48% of Taiwan's power, and the island held about 12 days of LNG in March. Qatar, about a third of its LNG, has kept force majeure on Asian and European deliveries through November, though Taiwan was not named; Taipower says its fuel costs this year would run NT$160bn above pre-war levels if gas prices hold to year-end. So far coal back-up units, new gas plants and spot cargoes have kept the lights on; a cut that reached Taiwan's chip fabs would hit the world's most advanced chip output, most of which is made only in Taiwan.

Why Likelihood 3 Pushes: about 12 days of LNG in March; Qatar force majeure through November; March near miss. Brakes: 2.1GW coal back-up; 40 days of coal; 5.2GW new gas; spot and US cargoes; eight months of war without a cut. A driver exists but is blocked.

Why Impact 5 Threshold case: one day of rotating cuts, as on 13 May 2021. Weeks of rationing at the fabs would score higher.

The other facts on file (7)
  • About 12 days of LNG held, as reported on 26 Mar 2026 [2] (26 Mar 2026)
  • 14-day LNG minimum targeted by 2027; 2025 power mix gas 48%, coal 35%, renewables 13%, nuclear 1%; coal 40 days vs 30-day minimum; Qatar and Australia each about a third of LNG; US LNG target 25% by 2029 [2] (14 May 2026)
  • Taipower said secure LNG covered demand only to end-March; Hsinta units 1-4 (2.1GW) can restart, dispatched only when reserve below 8% [3] (4 Mar 2026)
  • About 5.2GW of new gas units in 2026; summer reserves about 10% by day and 7% by night [4] (27 Jun 2026)
  • Qatar nearly 40% of Taiwan's long-term LNG contracts; CPC secured 1-2 spot cargoes a week (a trader's estimate); supplies secured through September; US LNG 1.33 Mt in March-May vs 0.44 Mt a year earlier [5] (29 May 2026)
  • 13 May 2021 grid fault forced six rounds of rolling cuts, about 4 million customers [7] (14 May 2021)
  • 3 Mar 2022 Hsinta fault cut power to about 5.49 million households; UMC Tainan fab halted; TSMC no significant impact [8] (4 Mar 2022)

Where it sits

Strait of HormuzStrait of HormuzAFGHANISTANUAEIRANIRAQKUWAITOMANSAUDI ARABIATHE GULFGULF OF OMAN0500 kmat 26°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
Strait of HormuzStrait of HormuzUAEIRANKUWAITOMANTHE GULF0300 kmat 26°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).

How it spreads

If

Between 26 Oct 2026 and 31 Oct 2027, Taiwan's power utility or the government orders rotating power cuts (rolling blackouts or rationing) for customers in Taiwan because fuel supply (LNG or coal) falls short, not because of a grid fault.

Not under way

Channels 4 on the card

  1. CanadaNo direct Canadian loss sourced.
  2. ChipsCuts reaching science parks would touch the nodes made only in Taiwan.
  3. LNG marketsEmergency spot buying by CPC would tighten Asian LNG in winter.
  4. Public financesMore pressure on Taipower's losses and on the supplementary budget.

Sectors 2

  • Technology
  • Energy and pipelines

Who is exposed

Countries
Taiwan, United States, Japan
Sectors
Technology, Energy and pipelines
Goods
LNG, Semiconductors
Straits
Strait of Hormuz, Taiwan Strait

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    Tight but held

    Spot cargoes and coal back-up carry the winter.

  2. S2

    Rationed peak

    A cold snap or missed cargo pushes reserves under 8%, Hsinta restarts and industry is asked to cut load.

  3. S3

    Cut off

    A renewed Gulf strike or a quarantine of a Taiwan port stops cargoes for longer than the roughly 12 days of LNG held in March.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1QatarEnergy lifts force majeure after November
S2Taipower dispatches the Hsinta back-up units
S3F-0074 resolves yes by 20 Nov 2026. Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026)

No probability is given for the three paths.

Forecasts

Strature forecast linked to this risk

61%F-0074 · A renewed US or Israeli strike on Iran, 22 Aug-20 Nov 2026 (operative)
Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026) · resolves by 20 Nov 2026
050100%

Where the card uses it F-0074 resolves yes by 20 Nov 2026. Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026)

Other forecasts the card links Open one for what it forecasts and where the card uses it

  • F-02024%Forecasts: Taiwan and the Philippines: coercion short of war (a blockade or quarantine of a Taiwan port)

    F-0202 and F-0233 resolve (blockade, quarantine or attack on Taiwan). Strature forecast F-0202: 4% (2 Oct 2026);

    Strature forecast F-0202: 4% (2 Oct 2026) · resolves by 30 Jun 2027 · brief C-005

  • F-02337%Forecasts: Taiwan to mid-2027: China blockades, quarantines or attacks

    F-0202 and F-0233 resolve (blockade, quarantine or attack on Taiwan). Strature forecast F-0233: 7% (10 Oct 2026)

    Strature forecast F-0233: 7% (10 Oct 2026) · resolves by 30 Jun 2027 · brief C-005

A forecast is a probability on a dated question. The Likelihood score above is a separate judgement and is never turned into a percentage.

The forecast register lists every forecast and how it is scored.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. 20 Nov 2026 F-0074 resolves (renewed US or Israeli strike on Iran). Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026) [12] Declared · Strature date

    Remind me

  2. 30 Nov 2026 QatarEnergy force majeure for Asian and European buyers runs to this date (press report) [6] Tentative · Outside event

    Remind me

  3. Dec 2026 Electricity rate review (12.83% proposal) [1] Declared · Outside event
  4. 2027 Target to reach 14 days of LNG storage [2] Tentative · Outside event
  5. 30 Jun 2027 F-0202 and F-0233 resolve (blockade, quarantine or attack on Taiwan). Strature forecast F-0202: 4% (2 Oct 2026); Strature forecast F-0233: 7% (10 Oct 2026) [12] Declared · Strature date

    Remind me

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SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · TAIWAN · strature.net

The other side

US LNG into Taiwan tripled year on year in March-May (1.33 Mt against 0.44 Mt, Strature calculation) [5], and Taiwan aims for 25% of LNG from the US by 2029 [2], an opening for North American suppliers. More storage, the 14-day target [2], and a debate on nuclear restarts [13] could leave the grid sturdier than before the war.

Connected in Strature

Sources

12 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. Taipower fuel costs to increase amid tensions. Taipei Times · 26 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  2. The Iran Conflict Illuminates Taiwan's Unique Energy Security Challenge. CSIS · 14 May 2026 · Think tank · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  3. Taiwan builds coal stocks to buffer LNG shortfall. Argus Media · 4 Mar 2026 · Industry · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  4. Taipower expects cheaper energy to narrow losses. Taipei Times · 27 Jun 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  5. Taiwan's CPC turns to spot market, diversifies LNG supply amid Middle East conflict. S&P Global Platts via Hellenic Shipping News · 29 May 2026 · Industry · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  6. Qatar Extends LNG Force Majeure as Hormuz Crisis Drags On. OilPrice.com · 28 Sep 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  7. Taiwan hit by rolling power outages. Taipei Times · 14 May 2021 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  8. 5.49m lose power to malfunction. Taipei Times · 4 Mar 2022 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  9. TSMC 3Q26 results press release. TSMC · 15 Oct 2026 · Company · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  10. TSMC 3Q26 Quarterly Management Report: Wafer Revenue by Technology and Net Revenue by Geography (Strature TWN dossier records gf5-1, gf5-7). TSMC via Strature Library · 15 Oct 2026 · Company · confidence high · retrieved 23 Oct 2026
  11. Strature forecast register, F-0074, F-0202 and F-0233. Strature · 10 Oct 2026 · Think tank · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  12. 油電撥補預算逾4100億 藍白嚴審批全民填洞、憂宣傳戰兩難. United Daily News · 3 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026

Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · version 1 · last change: reviewed · All risks