84 questions answered in 12 published briefs · Newest release 2 Oct 2026
Geoeconomic · Geopolitical · Geotechnology
The questions our published briefs answer that touch the United States.
“Yes. In 2026 US exposure was rule-set exposure, written in Washington; the next dated tests are the 3 November midterm and a China truce end announced for 10 January 2027.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Affected China
“The source read the world order of mid-2026 as something the United States was doing more than something happening to it.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“The source's reading holds on the new record: tariff exposure in 2026 is set by which statute is in force, which tier a partner sits in and whether goods qualify, not by a stable schedule.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Affected Canada
“On 24 September 2026 the US Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, said on Fox News that the truce would be extended to 10 January 2027, as CNBC reported the same day.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Affected China
“The source's judgement was that the binding cost was physical capacity.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“The source treated allies as re-pricing the credibility of US commitments rather than US capability.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“The source's reading was that three of the five forces were partly self-authored: the build-out, the redesign of credit and the coercive use of the dollar.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Affected China
“The executive complied with the adverse rulings on the record read.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“Policy made through the first kind of instrument carries no ratification anchor and can be reversed by the next office-holder, so its durability is tied to the electoral calendar.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“Its reading was intensifying contention inside institutional channels, with a political-violence tail that is real and individual rather than organised.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“The source's watch variable for both modules was the same: whether the executive continues to comply with adverse rulings.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“No balancing coalition formed: Argentina aligned with Washington, Mexico and Canada hedged, Brazil opened a trade track with China, and Colombia broke with Washington rhetorically.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“Its reading was that the financial tail matters through its correlation with the sovereign's wartime borrowing, not through any one channel.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“The source carried these as facts side by side, not as a proven causal chain: whether the staffing cuts weakened the wartime response is contested and was not adopted.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“For the source, the region reaches business through the USMCA perimeter rather than through the border itself: qualification decides most of the tariff bill, and the first measures that ignore qualification fell on Canada.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“Eight are core; the dollar passes the screen at the decadal horizon only.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“The source's reading, that the oil exposure is volatility set by war decisions, holds on the new record.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“The source's reading was cooling, not collapsing; the September record agrees and adds a rate increase.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“Elections are scheduled for 3 November 2026 for all 435 House seats, 35 of the 100 Senate seats and 39 state and territorial governorships (Wikipedia, 2026 United States elections, second-hand, retrieved 30 Sep 2026).”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“On the record read it had complied with each, from the tariff ruling to the Guard withdrawals.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“The two-month extension moves the decision past the midterm and past the end of the stopgap funding measure.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Affected China
“They broke on scope (whether Lebanon was covered), on verifying passage through the Strait of Hormuz, and on reciprocal strikes.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“The source's reading was that four of the six have a US decision somewhere in the chain that would set them off, and that they are correlated through the war: treating them as independent understates the joint exposure.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Affected Taiwan
“The source warned against the mirror-image error as well: each overstated rupture has an overstated opposite, and the record supported the middle.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“The US Treasury Secretary said the US-China truce would be extended to 10 January 2027, two months beyond its November expiry.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Affected China
“The source's own falsifier chapter was never drafted; these observations are taken from its judgements and red-herring tests, and none of them is a forecast.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“Not quickly. A fund we track taking a C$1bn-plus build stake by 31 October 2027: 43% (16% with a government term, 27% without), our estimate, scored when it resolves.”
our estimate, scored when it resolvesOn the register: F-0151 16%, open · F-0152 27%, open. The forecast register
Primary Canada Affected United Arab Emirates
“In manufacturing as a whole, used as the control, Canadian firms earned 9.0% on equity against 15.3% in the United States, a gap of 6.3 points.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“74–196 million barrels could leave Saudi Arabia in six weeks with the shuttle running, but none bought on 25 September was on file to land that soon.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“Here ‘closed’ means conditions 2, 3 and 4 persisting, the ones buyers' contracts and insurance respond to, with the shuttle running.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“No party running the escort has said how long it lasts; the US commander's statement of 19 September gave no duration.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“Likely, as registered on 21 August 2026: 61% that US or Israeli forces strike Iran by 20 November 2026, our estimate, scored when it resolves; on 21 August the strait was shut by permit.”
our estimate, scored when it resolvesOn the register: F-0074 61%, open · F-0073 72%, superseded, scored. The forecast register
“Six were in force on 21 August 2026 with no renewed strike”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“Washington's designations do not cite the London condition, the condition does not cite them, and Tehran's requirement cites neither.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“The quiet that followed was 23 days old at registration.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“A single munition suffices; no casualty, damage or scale threshold applies.”
our estimate, scored when it resolvesOn the register: F-0074 61%, open · F-0073 72%, superseded, scored. The forecast register
“The paths overlap, which is why the composed figure sits well below the sum of its parts; the overlap is what the superseded 72% mishandled.”
our estimate, scored when it resolvesOn the register: F-0074 61%, open · F-0073 72%, superseded, scored. The forecast register
“A negotiated reopening, Iran's conditions met, or the strait forced open: the only roads any party has named.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“The forms already used sit on the water.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“If a US principal states that energy infrastructure is off the target list, or the measures of 19–20 August are formally presented as the substitute for military action, or a dated instrument replaces the lapsed understanding, our view falls”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“It has started, but small: in 12 months to July 2026, 11.3 of 96.8 bcm of gas exports and 32.6 of 256.0 million m³ of crude went beyond the US.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“Of that, 11.7% of the gas (11.34 bcm) and 12.7% of the crude (32.6 million m³) went to countries other than the United States.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“By volume, the United States took 88.3% of Canadian gas exports and 87.3% of crude exports in the 12 months to July 2026”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“The first is geography made durable by capital: the pipeline network to the United States is built, and the measured Pacific marine route is one dock for crude and one terminal for nearly all the gas.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“For this class the question is whether Canadian diversification reduces available supply, and the measured answer is yes, by a small amount.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“No. The more concentrated side is supply: China supplied 40.9 per cent of Vietnam's 2025 imports, against a 32.2 per cent US share of exports, for as long as assembly runs on imported components.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“The United States took 32.2% of what Vietnam sold and supplied 4.2% of what it bought. China supplied 40.9% of what it bought and took 14.8% of what it sold.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“A change in the buyer market's trade rules acts on revenue. The United States took US$153.2bn of Vietnam's 2025 goods exports (NSO, preliminary).”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Vietnam
“For 2025, Vietnam reports US$153.2bn of exports to the United States; the US Census Bureau reports US$193.9bn of imports from Vietnam.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Vietnam
“The call would be wrong if, in Vietnam's own partner tables, the import side became the less concentrated side of the account, or if China's share of imports fell below the United States' share of exports.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“In Taiwan: Fab 18 (3nm) and Fabs 20 and 22 (2nm), on TSMC's table of 28 Feb 2026.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“2 to 3 points of gross margin early, 3 to 4 points later.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“The source edition translated a US–China outlook into three pathways for TSMC. None of them is scored here, and this edition does not rank them.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“TSMC's Nanjing fab (16nm) received US-origin items under a Validated End-User authorization until December 2025. TSMC reports that the U.S. Department of Commerce then granted TSMC Nanjing an annual export licence”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“No. The most likely of six registered futures, a Guard-run holding pattern, stands at 13.74%, our estimate, scored when it resolves; about 43% lies outside all six.”
our estimate, scored when it resolvesOn the register: F-0020 14%, open · F-0008 12%, open · F-0009 12%, open · F-0010 9%, open · F-0011 6%, open · F-0021 4%, open. The forecast register
“The source's central judgement on Iran's external position was that the leading powers now manage Iran rather than balance it.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“With that arbiter gone, the source read Iran's risks as correlated rather than diversified: a shock to one raises the odds of movement in the rest.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“US forces struck Revolutionary Guard targets on 30 August and 1 September 2026, the first known US strike since 29 July, according to US Central Command as reported by Stars and Stripes (1 Sep 2026).”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Iran
“Since the research date, the US President rejected Iran's seven-day plan to reopen the strait on 26 September 2026 (Al Jazeera).”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Iran
“One in practice: revenue, supply and compliance exposure answer to the same dated decisions; their shared hinge, as announced on 24 September, moved to 10 January 2027.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary China
“They answer to the same small set of decisions in Beijing and Washington, and when one of those decisions is taken all three can move together.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary China
“On 24 September 2026 the US Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, said on Fox News that the truce would be extended to 10 January 2027, as CNBC reported the same day.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary China
“On the IEA's 2026 outlook it held 85% of rare-earth refining in 2025, down from over 90% in 2023, as new projects in the United States and higher output in Malaysia came on stream.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“Nvidia's latest filing makes the point again: Hopper shipments to China were under 1% of its data-centre revenue in the quarter to 26 July 2026”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary China
“The source's analysts read any near-term move as likelier to begin as a quarantine or blockade than as an assault (AEI and ISW, The Diplomat, as cited by the source; as researched 19 Jul 2026).”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“The US Department of Defense's December 2025 report says China's cyber actors continued in 2024 to pre-position attack capabilities against the United States and its allies (as reported by Breaking Defense).”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary China
“The two leaders met again in Beijing in May 2026 and in Washington in September 2026, when the extension to 10 January 2027 was announced (CNBC, 24 Sep 2026).”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary China
“Vietnam +2.1 points and Mexico +2.0 points of US import share since 2018”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“A 2017 review for the UK Government Office for Science describes the Passage as a route from the US East Coast to Asia, and the Northern Sea Route as the Europe to Asia route.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“On the record read here, the dispute has never been joined over a merchant hull.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“Iran's instrument was routing and charging rather than denial. JMIC recorded directed hails toward the northern route.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“On the Kiel Institute's model of a full closure, US welfare falls by 0.07 per cent while losses in South Asia and Africa are 10 to 20 times larger in percentage terms.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“Exposure is set by the tariff line, not the sector: 666 US lines carry the Section 338 duty of 50 per cent, and 68 are excluded from importation since 29 September 2026.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“Three headings have closed: 9903.05.85, 9903.45.27 and 9903.53.01. The other 23 are in force.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“Heading 9903.03.14 holds 513 lines. Its four largest groups are wood (64 lines), furniture (56), electrical goods (39) and paper (31): 190 of 513, or 37%.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“CUSMA origin removes the broad 35% measure and the 10% measures; the schedule gives it no effect on the Section 338 duty or on Section 232.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“The value of the trade on the Section 338 lists is NOT DISCLOSED here. What would close it: a licensed trade series read against the 666 lines.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“The four are cases, not a sample, and a firm can move between conditions on a single proclamation.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“Proclamation 11063, titled with respect to motor vehicles, excludes one tariff line from importation: motorcycles over 800 cc. It reaches no cars, trucks or parts.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“The published position of both documents is that the exemption reaches the dairy list only.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“The duty collected on US imports from Canada was 2.8% of their value in July 2026, against 6.5% for imports from all origins.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“For lines on 9903.03.13 and 9903.03.14, the measures the United States names are a federal quota allocation and a federal Order in Council (SOR/2025-118), both published.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“It reaches a Canadian firm whose US revenue is a federal contract rather than a shipment, and it is not a customs matter.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“The reading would change with a new proclamation amending the exclusion annexes or the duty lists, or a revision of U.S. note 51; none was found to 30 September 2026.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
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Each answer is quoted verbatim from the brief. Answers with a register ID are our estimates, scored when they resolve; the others are the brief’s reading of the evidence, not forecasts.
Regions in these questions Arctic · Asia · East Asia · Europe · Indo-Pacific · Latin America · Middle East · North America · South Asia · Southeast Asia
ISO 3166-1 name: United States of America (USA). Country and territory names follow common usage and imply no position on sovereignty.
Edition 1.0 · Released 1 Oct 2026 · Archive edition
Each is our estimate, scored when it resolves. Published briefs only; the full register lists every one.
| ID | Forecast | Our estimate | Issued | Resolves by | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F-0151 | a build with a government term | Our estimate 16% | Issued 28 Sep 2026 | Resolves by 31 Oct 2027 | Status Open |
| F-0152 | a build on private contracts only | Our estimate 27% | Issued 28 Sep 2026 | Resolves by 31 Oct 2027 | Status Open |
| F-0074 | A renewed US or Israeli strike on Iran, 22 Aug-20 Nov 2026 (operative) | Our estimate 61% | Issued 21 Aug 2026 | Resolves by 20 Nov 2026 | Status Open |
| F-0073 | Same event, superseded 21 Aug 2026 on an upheld arithmetic challenge; still scored | Our estimate 72% | Issued 21 Aug 2026 | Resolves by 20 Nov 2026 | Status Superseded, scored |
| F-0020 | S1 Guard-Managed Attrition (MODAL) corrected; supersedes F-0007 | Our estimate 14% | Issued 7 Aug 2026 | Resolves by 18 Jul 2028 | Status Open |
| F-0008 | S3 Contested Drift / Paralysis | Our estimate 12% | Issued 23 Jul 2026 | Resolves by 18 Jul 2028 | Status Open |
| F-0009 | S5 Nuclear Dash under Pressure | Our estimate 12% | Issued 23 Jul 2026 | Resolves by 18 Jul 2028 | Status Open |
| F-0010 | S2 Frozen Siege | Our estimate 9% | Issued 23 Jul 2026 | Resolves by 18 Jul 2028 | Status Open |
| F-0011 | S6 Regime-Targeting War & Rupture | Our estimate 6% | Issued 23 Jul 2026 | Resolves by 18 Jul 2028 | Status Open |
| F-0021 | S4 Negotiated Off-ramp (LEAST LIKELY) corrected; supersedes F-0012 | Our estimate 4% | Issued 7 Aug 2026 | Resolves by 18 Jul 2028 | Status Open |
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General research for general circulation; not investment, legal or tax advice and not tailored to any reader. Every probability is our estimate, scored when it resolves.
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