KQ-08: On 30 September 2027, where does the North American trade agreement stand: rolling on unchanged, escalating, renewed, abandoned by the US, or something else?

Our standing estimate

Five outcomes that together make 100%. Our estimate, scored when it resolves.

Escalation short of withdrawal - tit-for-tat, more bans, 50% auto tariffs from January, and a progressive shrinking of tariff-free trade

51% · roughly even chance · confidence not registered

The US adds a new Canada-tied measure (a list, a ban or the threatened auto tariff) without a withdrawal notice, and the agreement stays in force.

F-0163 · Open
The zombie agreement: no renewal, no withdrawal - annual reviews roll on with the agreement unchanged and investment held back by the doubt ("Hotel California")

27% · unlikely · confidence not registered

Still in force with its term not extended, text unchanged, no withdrawal notice and no new US measure tied to Canada.

F-0162 · Open
The agreement is renewed or extended - with limited concessions or tighter terms (stricter auto rules of origin), possibly needing Congress

10% · very unlikely · confidence not registered

The three parties confirm an extension of its term at a joint review, and no one gives withdrawal notice.

F-0164 · Open
All other outcomes (trade agreement)

8% · very unlikely · confidence not registered

Any other state of the agreement on 30 September 2027 that none of the four tests above describes.

F-0166 · Open
US withdrawal, severe fragmentation - the agreement ends and the 50% Section 338 rate, or an import ban, is extended to goods now exempt, on top of the Section 232 duties already in force

4% · almost no chance · confidence not registered

The US gives six months' withdrawal notice and puts a tariff of 50% or more, or a ban, on goods now exempt.

F-0165 · Open

The situation when it was sealed (1 Oct 2026). Canada's entry to the US market is no longer secured by a treaty for any good Washington names; the list is redrawn on its dates and reviewed every year.

How it moved

Each point is a sealed register row. There is one sealed estimate for each outcome so far: a new point is added only when we register a new estimate, and the old one stays listed and scored.

The vertical line is 31 Oct 2026. Numbers match the outcomes above.

Every sealed estimate for this question: outcome number, register row, date sealed, estimate, status
No.	Row	Sealed	Estimate	Status
1	F-0163	1 Oct 2026	51%	Open
2	F-0162	1 Oct 2026	27%	Open
3	F-0164	1 Oct 2026	10%	Open
4	F-0166	1 Oct 2026	8%	Open
5	F-0165	1 Oct 2026	4%	Open

Reassessments

No reassessment yet.

Signposts

What the brief says would move the view, quoted from it.

No signpost is published for this question yet.

Why it matters, by category

Trade, tariffs and sanctions

Canada's exporters and its own export lender are arranging themselves around the agreement's yearly review clock.

Countries it touches

The countries our register links to these forecasts, most often linked first.

How it resolves

The registered words that decide each forecast, quoted unchanged.

F-0162
“Happened if, on 30 Sep 2027, the agreement is still in force with its term not extended, no party has given withdrawal notice, its text is unchanged, and the US has added no Canada-tied measure beyond those in force on 29 Sep 2026.”
F-0163
“Happened if, by 30 Sep 2027, the US adds a new Canada-tied measure beyond those in force on 29 Sep 2026 (a new list, ban or the threatened auto tariff) with no withdrawal notice given, and on 30 Sep 2027 the agreement is in force with its term not extended.”
F-0164
“Happened if, by 30 Sep 2027, the three parties confirm an extension of the agreement's term at a joint review (with or without amended terms) and no party has given withdrawal notice.”
F-0165
“Happened if, by 30 Sep 2027, the US gives six months' withdrawal notice and applies a tariff of 50% or more, or an import ban, to goods now exempt.”
F-0166
“Happened if none of the set's numbered outcomes happened by 2027-09-30: Every state of the agreement on 30 Sep 2027 that none of the four numbered tests describes: a US withdrawal notice with the tariff on goods now exempt kept below 50% and no import ban (S-08, the contained withdrawal), a withdrawal notice given by Canada or Mexico, a US notice with no tariff yet announced, or the agreement in force and unextended with its text amended but no new Canada-tied US measure.”

The seals: each statement’s SHA-256 fingerprint

F-0162 sealed 1 Oct 2026SHA-256 faedf25a159ba8e26792e5e3213466971b4f560730cc560e12fcaf2ee660a67c
F-0163 sealed 1 Oct 2026SHA-256 b9886bc188373b701940dfac69fcd88ab41f5d8d5a55e6838daa3950f31c2d4d
F-0164 sealed 1 Oct 2026SHA-256 c6517f9676c1a8ff1b29380c83488703235e9adf4528d1cba19b2fca93f361e9
F-0165 sealed 1 Oct 2026SHA-256 75e4dc0cabf0bbf05ffb6a76fa193ab1257561ef66562e2efcb5c2c7a4ee1bde
F-0166 sealed 1 Oct 2026SHA-256 df5437445de8c76dcfdad6ffb7634ad9d9b9deda350e64e979ac2b8a6342e826

Go further

Each probability is our estimate, scored when it resolves. Forecasts are general research on public events and policy; they are not investment, legal or tax advice.