18 questions answered in 3 published briefs · Newest release 1 Oct 2026
Geoeconomic · Geopolitical · Geotechnology
The questions our published briefs answer that touch Saudi Arabia.
“74–196 million barrels could leave Saudi Arabia in six weeks with the shuttle running, but none bought on 25 September was on file to land that soon.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“Here ‘closed’ means conditions 2, 3 and 4 persisting, the ones buyers' contracts and insurance respond to, with the shuttle running.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“Each capacity is quoted on its own basis, and we never add them. The pipeline's nameplate is about 7 mb/d (Saudi Ministry of Energy), a ceiling, not a flow.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“No grade offer on file named October or later, and volume by grade is not published.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“Any count built on transponder signals cannot log a ship that has switched its transponder off at a berth.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Affected Yemen
“Across the three readings the twelve-month low end spans 350 million barrels and its high end 722; with nothing leaving the Gulf, the high end spans 924.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“The low end's shuttle, 0.9 mb/d, fits the smaller sale's remaining pace if it has loaded as stated (0.65–0.97) and falls short of the larger at an even pace unless some loaded early.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“Adding the shortest timed voyage (Ulsan 21 days, Zhanjiang 18, Sikka 3), the first cargo reaches Korea after 58 days, China after 55 and India after 40 at the earliest.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“Korea cut 40 days of average sales to 20 from 29 May, until separately lifted, as reported by The Korea Times and Newspim; no restoring notice was found in searches to 30 September 2026.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Affected Japan, South Korea
“No party running the escort has said how long it lasts; the US commander's statement of 19 September gave no duration.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“Once a pattern settles, the tanks run dry wherever ships lift faster than the pipe delivers.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“No year since 1979 reordered the Gulf and the Levant as fast as 2026, and it did so mainly by taking things away from Iran.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“The largest Iran exposure most firms carry sits outside Iran: the strait, the oil price, the compliance chain, Gulf assets.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“Crude through Hormuz reached a seven-day average of 13.5 mb/d to 28 Sep 2026, matching the pre-war baseline, under US military escorts and ship-to-ship transfers (Kpler, via CNBC, 30 Sep 2026).”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“Airports, fuel tanks and at least one desalination plant were struck, the source recorded; the Saudi East-West pipeline was shut in September 2026 after a drone strike launched from Iraq (CNBC, 30 Sep 2026).”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“Repriced cargo by cargo: by mid-2026 LNG kept under a tenth and crude under a quarter of their late-2025 flow through the Strait, and by 28 September crude, on Kpler's pre-war baseline, was back; products were not.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“Crude kept 23.3 per cent of its late-2025 flow, products 19.3 per cent and LNG 7.6 per cent.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“Only Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have operating pipelines around the Strait, on EIA's record: the 5-million-barrel-a-day East-West line to the Red Sea and a 1.5-million line to Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.No question matches the chosen filters.
Each answer is quoted verbatim from the brief. Answers with a register ID are our estimates, scored when they resolve; the others are the brief’s reading of the evidence, not forecasts.
Regions in these questions Asia · East Asia · Middle East · South Asia
ISO 3166-1 name: Saudi Arabia (SAU). Country and territory names follow common usage and imply no position on sovereignty.
Edition 1.0 · Released 1 Oct 2026 · Archive edition
Each is our estimate, scored when it resolves. Published briefs only; the full register lists every one.
No registered forecast is attached to these questions yet.
| ID | Forecast | Our estimate | Issued | Resolves by | Status |
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The full brief is supplied to organisations through the request form on the brief’s page: they accept its terms and confirm a work email, and it is free during the introductory period.
Q-023 · Edition 1.0
C-002 · Edition 1.0
T-003 · Edition 1.0
General research for general circulation; not investment, legal or tax advice and not tailored to any reader. Every probability is our estimate, scored when it resolves.
Suggest it for the series; if we take it up, the answer is published to everyone.
