16 questions answered in 5 published briefs · Newest release 2 Oct 2026
Geoeconomic · Geopolitical
The questions our published briefs answer that touch the United Arab Emirates.
“Not quickly. A fund we track taking a C$1bn-plus build stake by 31 October 2027: 43% (16% with a government term, 27% without), our estimate, scored when it resolves.”
our estimate, scored when it resolvesOn the register: F-0151 16%, open · F-0152 27%, open. The forecast register
Primary Canada Affected United States
“Pledged, and mostly not yet placed: for 6 of 7 pledges we found no placement to 27 September 2026.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“Foreign fund managers already own and buy Canadian infrastructure, but we found no closing by a foreign sovereign investor from the pledges to 27 September 2026.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“74–196 million barrels could leave Saudi Arabia in six weeks with the shuttle running, but none bought on 25 September was on file to land that soon.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“Each capacity is quoted on its own basis, and we never add them. The pipeline's nameplate is about 7 mb/d (Saudi Ministry of Energy), a ceiling, not a flow.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“No grade offer on file named October or later, and volume by grade is not published.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“Six were in force on 21 August 2026 with no renewed strike”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“The quiet that followed was 23 days old at registration.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“Relief cargo moved to Aqaba and to land corridors from Dubai.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“No year since 1979 reordered the Gulf and the Levant as fast as 2026, and it did so mainly by taking things away from Iran.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“The largest Iran exposure most firms carry sits outside Iran: the strait, the oil price, the compliance chain, Gulf assets.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“Crude through Hormuz reached a seven-day average of 13.5 mb/d to 28 Sep 2026, matching the pre-war baseline, under US military escorts and ship-to-ship transfers (Kpler, via CNBC, 30 Sep 2026).”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“Airports, fuel tanks and at least one desalination plant were struck, the source recorded; the Saudi East-West pipeline was shut in September 2026 after a drone strike launched from Iraq (CNBC, 30 Sep 2026).”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“Repriced cargo by cargo: by mid-2026 LNG kept under a tenth and crude under a quarter of their late-2025 flow through the Strait, and by 28 September crude, on Kpler's pre-war baseline, was back; products were not.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“Crude kept 23.3 per cent of its late-2025 flow, products 19.3 per cent and LNG 7.6 per cent.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“Only Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have operating pipelines around the Strait, on EIA's record: the 5-million-barrel-a-day East-West line to the Red Sea and a 1.5-million line to Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.No question matches the chosen filters.
Each answer is quoted verbatim from the brief. Answers with a register ID are our estimates, scored when they resolve; the others are the brief’s reading of the evidence, not forecasts.
Regions in these questions Asia · East Asia · Middle East · North America · South Asia
ISO 3166-1 name: United Arab Emirates (ARE). Country and territory names follow common usage and imply no position on sovereignty.
No published brief has the United Arab Emirates as its subject yet; the questions above name it as affected.
Each is our estimate, scored when it resolves. Published briefs only; the full register lists every one.
| ID | Forecast | Our estimate | Issued | Resolves by | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F-0151 | a build with a government term | Our estimate 16% | Issued 28 Sep 2026 | Resolves by 31 Oct 2027 | Status Open |
| F-0152 | a build on private contracts only | Our estimate 27% | Issued 28 Sep 2026 | Resolves by 31 Oct 2027 | Status Open |
The full brief is supplied to organisations through the request form on the brief’s page: they accept its terms and confirm a work email, and it is free during the introductory period.
Q-021 · Edition 1.1
Q-023 · Edition 1.0
S-001 · Edition 1.0
C-002 · Edition 1.0
T-003 · Edition 1.0
General research for general circulation; not investment, legal or tax advice and not tailored to any reader. Every probability is our estimate, scored when it resolves.
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