Evidence file
This page answers: Which news backs each risk, and where is the evidence thin?
Using this page
- Read the headline of each view: the risks, who acts, the map.
- Open a risk for its reports, each with its outlet, date and confidence.
- Check What is missing for the places and firms no report names yet.
What links a risk to a country or company? Pick a risk, country or company. Every view follows it.
How to read this page
The evidence
127 approved risk cards and their 266 reports, as of 6 Nov 2026. 63 countries are tagged and 212 company links recorded. Each report has one source. Summaries are Strature’s own. Cards run from highest Likelihood to lowest. Only these 127 cards have a news file so far. A country or company absent here may simply not have been looked for. All risks
Likelihood and Impact
Three blues show Likelihood, always with the word. Impact is in words. They are shown as on the cards, read apart, and never multiplied.
Tags and confidence
“Acting”, “on the receiving end” and “caught in the spillover” are tags on a one-line summary, not findings. A country may be tagged for its own politics. High, Medium and Low confidence are our word for each report; the source has its own rating where it differs.
Companies
A company is either “named in the article” or “from the card”. It appears only as a public fact in a source. No event is scored on a company, and nothing here is investment advice.