The EU delays its ban on Russian gas because of the Gulf shock
The test Between 25 Oct 2026 and 25 Oct 2027, an EU legal act moves either long-term ban (LNG from 1 Jan 2027; pipeline gas from 30 Sep 2027, 1 Nov 2027 at the latest) to a later date, or suspends either ban for more than four weeks in total.
Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
Follow this riskSign in to follow; one weekly email if you ask for it.
Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
What changed
Dated, newest first
- Impact 5 to 4.
- EU bought EUR 1.7bn of Russian fossil fuels in Sep 2026: EUR 817m pipeline gas, EUR 615m LNG, EUR 290m crude; Hungary EUR 414m pipeline gas (EUR 475m in all), Slovakia EUR 161m, Bulgaria EUR 132m; France EUR 446m LNG, Netherlands EUR 116m [4]
- Jorgensen to propose a one-year delay of the methane rules' import part [11]
- QatarEnergy extended force majeure to end-November (reported, unnamed sources via Bloomberg) [10]
- Qatar 0.3% of extra-EU LNG imports in Q2 2026 (10.1% in Q4 2025); US 63.2%; Russia 17.3% [5]
Why it matters
EU law ends Russian LNG under long-term contracts on 1 Jan 2027 and Russian pipeline gas from 30 Sep 2027. With Qatar's LNG reported under force majeure to end-November and its EU share down to 0.3%, some leaders want cheaper Russian energy back. The Commission refuses to reopen the ban and the law holds its own emergency valves, so a delay needs a new act most states have not asked for.
Why Likelihood 4 Pushes: Qatar out, the Commission delaying other energy rules for the Gulf shock, calls from Belgium and Hungary. Brakes: the Commission refuses, 24 states voted for, the LNG limb also sits in sanctions law, and the law's own extension and four-week suspension meet a crisis without a new act.
Why Impact 4 The EU, Russia and Ukraine; about EUR 2.5bn (US$2.7bn) of pipeline gas over a few months; months; a policy partners can route around at a cost.
The other facts on file (7)
- Regulation (EU) 2026/261 in force 3 Feb 2026; long-term LNG banned from 1 Jan 2027; long-term pipeline from 30 Sep 2027, no later than 1 Nov 2027 [1] (2 Feb 2026)
- Commission may suspend the ban for up to four weeks in a declared emergency [1] (2 Feb 2026)
- 19th sanctions package bans Russian LNG under contracts over one year from 1 Jan 2027 [12] (11 Nov 2025)
- Hungary and Slovakia voted against, Bulgaria abstained, 24 for; Hungary challenged the regulation at the Court of Justice [3] (2 Feb 2026)
- Jorgensen rejected calls to reopen the LNG ban on 16 Mar 2026; De Wever called for regaining access to cheap energy from Russia [6] (17 Mar 2026)
- Magyar suggested, in Euronews' words, that the EU should lift sanctions on Russian energy [8] (13 Apr 2026)
- Commission postponed its Russian oil ban proposal citing geopolitical developments [7] (25 Mar 2026)
Where it sits
How it spreads
Between 25 Oct 2026 and 25 Oct 2027, an EU legal act moves either long-term ban (LNG from 1 Jan 2027; pipeline gas from 30 Sep 2027, 1 Nov 2027 at the latest) to a later date, or suspends either ban for more than four weeks in total.
Not under wayChannels 5 on the card
- CanadaNo Canadian loss found.
- Russia's revenueEUR 817m a month of pipeline gas (September 2026) [4] keeps flowing.
- Europe's gas balanceEases supply while Qatar is out; a gain for buyers.
- Sanctions policyFirst step back on an adopted Russian energy law; weakens the case for the oil ban.
- UkraineMore EU money for Russia during the war (Strature's view).
Goods 1
Sectors 2
- Energy and pipelines
- Ports and logistics
Countries 11
Who is exposed
- Countries
- Hungary, Slovakia, Bulgaria, France, Netherlands, Portugal, Belgium, Russia, Ukraine, United States
- Sectors
- Energy and pipelines, Ports and logistics
- Goods
- LNG, Natural gas
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
On schedule
Both dates hold; winter stress is met with the storage-linked extension or a short suspension.
- S2
Pipeline slip
Hungary and Slovakia win a later pipeline date in return for support on another file.
- S3
Full retreat
A long Gulf outage leads to a delay of both dates.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | no Commission proposal to amend the regulation by 31 Dec 2026 |
| S2 | an amending proposal on pipeline dates before Jun 2027 |
| S3 | QatarEnergy extends force majeure past Mar 2027 |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
- 30 Nov 2026 QatarEnergy force majeure runs to the end of November (reported) [10] Tentative · Outside event
- 1 Jan 2027 Ban on Russian LNG under long-term contracts [1] Declared · Outside event
- 30 Sep 2027 Ban on Russian pipeline gas under long-term contracts, if storage is on track [1] Declared · Outside event
- 1 Nov 2027 Latest date for the pipeline ban [1] Declared · Outside event
Sign in, with alerts on, for an email 7 days and 1 day before.
The other side
If the dates hold, EU buyers stop paying about EUR 1.4bn a month for Russian gas (Strature calculation: September's EUR 817m of pipeline gas plus EUR 615m of LNG [4]) and Atlantic LNG sellers gain a firm market [5]; a delay, if it came, would cut winter supply risk for Hungary and Slovakia.
Connected in Strature
- LNG
- European Union
- Hungary
- Slovakia
- Bulgaria
- France
- Netherlands
- Belgium
- Russia
- Qatar
- United States
- The EU's ban on Russian LNG under long-term contracts bites from 1 January 2027 Shares a channel: The opposite of this card's LNG limb.
- The Strait of Hormuz shuts again Driven by: Qatar's lost supply is the main push.
- A winter LNG crunch forces gas rationing in Europe, Japan or South Korea Driven by: A tight winter raises pressure for a delay.
- Russia's war reaches NATO's eastern flank Shares a channel: The risk “Russia's war reaches NATO's eastern flank” tracks the same phase-out dates.
Sources
10 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- Regulation (EU) 2026/261 on phasing out Russian natural gas imports: document summary. European Parliament Legislative Observatory · 2 Feb 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Hungary challenges EU ban on Russian gas at EU Court of Justice. Telex · 2 Feb 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- September 2026: monthly analysis of Russian fossil fuel exports and sanctions. CREA · 16 Oct 2026 · Think tank · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- EU imports of energy products - latest developments. Eurostat · 2026-09 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- EU confirms no reversal on Russian Arctic LNG ban despite Strait of Hormuz closure. High North News · 17 Mar 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- EC postpones legislative proposal to completely ban Russian oil imports. Energynomics · 25 Mar 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Magyar keeps door open to Russian energy despite EU phase-out plans. Euronews · 13 Apr 2026 · News · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Qatar extends LNG force majeure as Hormuz crisis drags on. OilPrice.com · 28 Sep 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Explainer: gas glut or supply crunch, and what it means for EU methane rules. EUobserver · 4 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- European Union Adopts 19th Package of Sanctions Against Russia. K&L Gates · 11 Nov 2025 · Commentary · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · version 1 · last change: reviewed · All risks