Every forecast in our published briefs.

“Resolves if, by 2027-10-31, a named allocator's new C$1bn+ equity commitment (agreed after 2026-09-27) to a to-be-built Canadian asset is announced with a published or signed project-specific government term”

“Resolves if, by 2027-10-31, a named allocator's new C$1bn+ equity commitment (agreed after 2026-09-27) to a to-be-built Canadian asset is announced, and no qualifying commitment carries a published or signed project-specific government term”

“Resolves if, by 2027-10-31, the Government of Canada publishes the concession length and charge regime for at least one of Pearson, Vancouver, Montreal-Trudeau or Calgary, and no qualifying named-allocator C$1bn+ build commitment is announced”

“Resolves if, by 2027-10-31, a project is listed in Schedule 1 of the Building Canada Act, no airport concession length and charge regime is published, and no qualifying named-allocator C$1bn+ build commitment is announced”

“Resolves if, by 2027-10-31, no airport concession terms are published, Schedule 1 of the Building Canada Act lists no project, and no qualifying named-allocator C$1bn+ build commitment is announced”

Resolves yes if, as registered: “the armed forces of the United States and/or the State of Israel deliver one or more munitions onto Iranian sovereign land territory including its islands, or onto a fixed installation attached to the seabed within Iran's territorial sea, continental shelf or exclusive economic zone, or onto a commissioned warship or naval combatant of the Iranian state wherever located, delivered from beyond the target's immediate vicinity, at any time between 00:00 UTC on 2026-08-22 and 23:59 UTC on 2026-11-20 inclusive”

Resolves yes if, as registered: “the armed forces of the United States and/or the State of Israel deliver one or more munitions onto Iranian sovereign land territory including its islands, or onto a fixed installation attached to the seabed within Iran's territorial sea, continental shelf or exclusive economic zone, or onto a commissioned warship or naval combatant of the Iranian state wherever located, delivered from beyond the target's immediate vicinity, at any time between 00:00 UTC on 2026-08-22 and 23:59 UTC on 2026-11-20 inclusive”

Resolution criteria, as registered: “As of 2028-07-18, ALL of: (a) the IRGC/security apparatus is the de facto controlling authority of the Iranian state (whether or not a nominal Supreme Leader is in place); (b) the Israel/US-Iran confrontation has continued as an intermittent, unresolved strike-and-counterstrike pattern WITHOUT a durable comprehensive settlement AND without a regime collapse/replacement; and (c) no IAEA-verified comprehensive nuclear agreement limiting enrichment is in force. Score YES if all three hold, PARTIAL if two hold, NO otherwise.”

Resolution criteria, as registered: “As of 2028-07-18: the apex remains openly contested/unconsolidated (no single actor or council exercises uncontested control) AND external posture is indecisive (neither durable settlement nor full regime-targeting war), with the nuclear file at inspector-less ambiguity. YES if apex-contested AND indecisive-posture both hold; else NO/PARTIAL.”

Resolution criteria, as registered: “As of 2028-07-18: Iran has taken an observable, IAEA/IC-assessed decisive step toward a nuclear weapon (e.g. enrichment to weapons-grade, a device, or a test) OR credible public assessment that weaponization is underway. YES if such a step is publicly assessed to have occurred; NO otherwise.”

Resolution criteria, as registered: “As of 2028-07-18: an armed no-war-no-peace holds — active kinetic exchanges have largely ceased for a sustained period (>6 months) WITHOUT a comprehensive settlement, with the full sanctions architecture intact. YES if a sustained freeze-without-settlement holds; NO otherwise.”

Resolution criteria, as registered: “As of 2028-07-18: a sustained regime-targeting military campaign has coincided with regime fragmentation, loss of central control over significant territory, OR replacement/collapse of the Islamic Republic's governing order. YES if regime rupture/fragmentation is observable; NO otherwise.”

Resolution criteria, as registered: “As of 2028-07-18: a comprehensive negotiated settlement is in force that materially relieves the sanctions wall AND includes verified nuclear limits, signed by an Iranian leadership able to deliver it domestically. YES if such a settlement is in force; NO otherwise.”

Resolution criteria, as registered: “As of 2028-07-18, ALL of: (a) the IRGC/security apparatus is the de facto controlling authority of the Iranian state (whether or not a nominal Supreme Leader is in place); (b) the Israel/US-Iran confrontation has continued as an intermittent, unresolved strike-and-counterstrike pattern WITHOUT a durable comprehensive settlement AND without a regime collapse/replacement; and (c) no IAEA-verified comprehensive nuclear agreement limiting enrichment is in force. Score YES if all three hold, PARTIAL if two hold, NO otherwise.”

Resolution criteria, as registered: “As of 2028-07-18: a comprehensive negotiated settlement is in force that materially relieves the sanctions wall AND includes verified nuclear limits, signed by an Iranian leadership able to deliver it domestically. YES if such a settlement is in force; NO otherwise.”