No province makes a queue position a right to power. Alberta allocating 1,200–2,400 MW more by end-2028 carries 50%, our estimate, scored when it resolves.
Archive edition. Researched 6 September 2026; harmonised to the current house standard 30 September 2026. Evidence to 30 September 2026; facts refreshed 30 September 2026.
Dashed line: Even odds · 50%
1,200–2,400 MW MORE · 50%
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“No province makes a queue position a right to power. Alberta allocating 1,200–2,400 MW more by end-2028 carries 50%, our estimate, scored when it resolves.”
our estimate, scored when it resolvesOn the register: F-0181 25%, open · F-0182 25%, open. The forecast register
Primary Canada
“No. Alberta converted at most 6 per cent of its list; BC releases the duty to serve unselected projects.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“Readiness: municipal support, financial security and a completed power flow study, divided pro rata.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“None of the three is time in the queue. Each is something a developer can do now, and a position acquired eighteen months earlier earned nothing by having aged.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“The largest request, 750 MW, is about fifteen times the largest site running.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“The IESO has received connection requests for up to 750 MW at a single connection point, with very quick implementation timelines.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“Alberta regulated, Ontario proposed an approval gate, and BC's result waits on the government transition after an election was called.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“At most 24 per cent of the list qualified, at most 6 per cent reached a contract, and 25 per cent of what qualified was assigned.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“Its guide says the megawatt column shows the change in contract capacity only and does not describe the total capacity at the point of connection, and that the date column does not indicate a facility's commercial operation date.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“That workstream became the Phase 2A bring-your-own-generation process. On 8 September 2026 the AESO said it was still finalising the process and expected to post it, and begin intake, this fall.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“The operator therefore discounts its own queue before the queue enters its plan, and it does not publish which tier any project is in.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“On 13 August 2026 Ontario proposed a three-pillar assessment of new data centres to inform connection approvals, and a rate class for large new data centres (ERO 026-0853); comment closed on 12 September 2026.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“The position is a place in a line; the obligation to serve is a duty. The Province keeps the first and makes the second conditional on selection, which leaves a queue position as a right to be considered.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“So 400 MW is open to AI and data centres against close to 800 MW requested: about half.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“On 30 September 2026 BC Hydro's page says applicants moving to the next stage have been notified, that a provincial election has been called, and that notifications are expected after the government transition later this year.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“Among the Canadian routes, own generation in Alberta scores lowest and the Alberta queue position fourth of five.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“If own generation in Alberta can be done in 33 months rather than 36, a move of 9 per cent, own generation moves first; if the non-Canadian route is slower than 36 months, the same happens.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“The evidence here is about process timing because that is what the operators publish; turning it into capital cost would need a revenue model none of them provides.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“Half the registered weight, 50%, our estimate, scored when it resolves, sits where Alberta allocates 1,200–2,400 MW more by 31 December 2028.”
our estimate, scored when it resolvesOn the register: F-0179 9%, open · F-0180 11%, open · F-0181 25%, open · F-0182 25%, open · F-0183 18%, open · F-0184 12%, open. The forecast register
Primary Canada
“No operator publishes megawatts actually energised, by province and date, on one definition, and the AESO's own guide says the in-service date on its list is not a commercial operation date.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
Registered forecasts are never changed: they stay as issued and are scored as registered. Facts found after the research date are listed here with their date and source.
| No. | Forecast | Estimate | Issued | Resolves | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F-0179 | By 31 December 2028, Alberta allocates nothing further and BC does not repeat its call | 9% our estimate, scored when it resolves | Issued 6 Sep 2026 | Resolves 31 Dec 2028 | Open |
| F-0180 | By 31 December 2028, Alberta allocates nothing further and BC repeats its call | 11% our estimate, scored when it resolves | Issued 6 Sep 2026 | Resolves 31 Dec 2028 | Open |
| F-0181 | By 31 December 2028, Alberta allocates 1,200-2,400 MW more and BC does not repeat its call | 25% our estimate, scored when it resolves | Issued 6 Sep 2026 | Resolves 31 Dec 2028 | Open |
| F-0182 | By 31 December 2028, Alberta allocates 1,200-2,400 MW more and BC repeats its call | 25% our estimate, scored when it resolves | Issued 6 Sep 2026 | Resolves 31 Dec 2028 | Open |
| F-0183 | By 31 December 2028, Alberta allocates over 2,400 MW more and BC does not repeat its call | 18% our estimate, scored when it resolves | Issued 6 Sep 2026 | Resolves 31 Dec 2028 | Open |
| F-0184 | By 31 December 2028, Alberta allocates over 2,400 MW more and BC repeats its call | 12% our estimate, scored when it resolves | Issued 6 Sep 2026 | Resolves 31 Dec 2028 | Open |
Alberta issued its Data Centre Regulation under the Electric Utilities Act. The Government of Alberta describes it as directing the system operator “to prioritize large data centres that bring their own generation” — Government of Alberta, Open Government, 9 Jun 2026. It predates Edition 1.0, which reported it from commentary and did not open it; the regulation's own text sits on a site whose robots rules bar automated reading, so the description is the Government's summary.
Government of Alberta, Open Government publication 2026_117, read 30 Sep 2026
The Government of Alberta states that its data centre levy came into effect on 1 January 2026, at rates as high as 2 per cent of computing equipment value, lower for centres supplying their own power, and fully deductible against corporate income taxes. Edition 1.0 carried a later date, the end of 2026, from professional commentary at a lower grade. The two dates are printed, not reconciled. We have not assessed any investor's tax position; take tax advice.
Government of Alberta, Alberta tax overview, read 30 Sep 2026
Ontario proposed a three-pillar assessment of new data centres to inform connection approvals, and a rate class for large new data centres; comment closed on 12 September 2026. An earlier proposal (5 Sep 2025) would require the Minister's approval to connect. Both predate Edition 1.0 and were not on the pages it read; no regulation in force was found on 30 September 2026.
Environmental Registry of Ontario 026-0853 and 025-1001, read 30 Sep 2026
The AESO said it was still finalising its bring-your-own-generation process and expected to post it and begin application intake this fall.
AESO Engage, Phase 2A: Large Load Integration, BYOG Process, read 30 Sep 2026
BC Hydro says applicants moving to the next stage have been notified; with a provincial election called, notifications are expected after the government transition later this year. Edition 1.0 expected them at the end of September 2026.
BC Hydro, Emerging Industries Connections, read 30 Sep 2026
Edition 1.0 described the close to 800 MW requested as spread across all three categories. The Province's page places the first call with AI and data centres; hydrogen for export has its own later call. The comparison of 400 MW with close to 800 MW stands.
Province of British Columbia, framework page, re-read 30 Sep 2026
The AESO's latest monthly project list was updated on 1 September 2026. No newer AESO statement of a data-centre list total was found; the September 2025 figure of over 20,000 MW keeps its date, and the list's megawatt column is not summed, on the guide's own instructions.
AESO Connection Project Reporting, read 30 Sep 2026
Scoring rule for the gap in the registered Alberta bands, set by the register's owner on 30 September 2026: if Alberta allocates 1–1,199 MW more by 31 December 2028, every Alberta band resolves NO and is scored as registered. The forecasts are unchanged; the gap stays printed as a defect of the registration (Section 17).
Strature forecast register, owner ruling of 30 Sep 2026
None of these facts changes a registered forecast. The Alberta regulation and the own-generation intake bear on the Alberta axis; the BC delay bears on the BC axis. The six forecasts are printed as registered on 6 September 2026 and will be scored as registered.
Strature, as registered
No new forecast is issued with these facts; a new view would be a new, separately dated forecast.
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