Canada’s capital projects
Follow Canada’s capital projectsAlerts when its risks move. Free.
Large investors pledged capital to Canada, but for 6 of 7 pledges our brief found no placement to 27 September 2026; projects with a published or signed government term went ahead 6 times in 15, against 12 in 58 without.
This page answers: What does our register say about Canada’s capital projects, and which countries does it reach?
Using this page
- Read the register’s estimates: each is scored when its question resolves.
- See who is exposed. Pick a region to narrow the list.
- Open Full analyst view for every question, country and source.
- Leading outcome F-0152 · 27%
- Reach 8 of 13 countries read are High
- This week’s Top 10 No. 5
- Reviewed
What our forecasts say
In the register’s exact words, each with our estimate, scored when it resolves.
By 31 October 2027, will a fund we track commit C$1bn or more to a new Canadian build, with or without a government term, and if not, what moves instead?
F-0151 · A build with a government term · 16%, our estimate, scored when it resolves · resolves by 31 Oct 2027 · Open · brief Q-021
F-0152 · A build on private contracts only · 27%, our estimate, scored when it resolves · resolves by 31 Oct 2027 · Open · brief Q-021
F-0153 · Airport terms published, no build · 16%, our estimate, scored when it resolves · resolves by 31 Oct 2027 · Open · brief Q-021
- KQ-04 By 31 October 2027, will a fund we track commit C$1bn or more to a new Canadian build, with or without a government term, and if not, what moves instead?
- KQ-05 By 31 December 2028, how much more large-load grid capacity will Alberta allocate, and will British Columbia repeat its call for demand?
- KQ-06 By 26 June 2030, how many projects will be listed under the Building Canada Act, and will a section 35 rights-holder have started a court challenge relating to the Act?
- Dates on the risk calendar
- How our forecasts have scored
Who is exposed
8 of 13 countries read are High; 4 Medium, 1 Low.
Each country’s band is its highest channel band on our published materiality lines. Strature analysis, not from the brief.
- CanadaHost country, not banded
- United StatesHighFDI stockProcurement
- United KingdomHighOfftakeProject equity
- JapanHighProcurement
- GermanyHighProject equity
- ChinaHighOfftake
- South KoreaHighOfftake
- AustraliaHighCapital pledged
- United Arab EmiratesHighCapital pledged
Show all 13 countries read
- MalaysiaMediumOfftakeProject equity
- FranceMediumOfftake
- IndiaMediumOfftake
- SingaporeMediumProject equity
- Saudi ArabiaLowCapital pledged
Goods and chokepoints it touches
Channels in our readings, with the number of countries read on each:
- Capital pledged 5
- FDI stock 8
- Project equity 8
- Offtake 9
- Procurement 3
What to watch
- 31 Oct 2027 Whether a fund we track commits C$1bn or more to a new Canadian build, with or without a government term, and if not, what moves instead.
- 31 Dec 2028 How much more large-load grid capacity Alberta allocates, and whether British Columbia repeats its call for demand.
- 26 Jun 2030 How many projects are listed for fast approval under the Building Canada Act, and whether a section 35 rights-holder starts a court challenge relating to the Act.
Questions firms in this position often review
- Does our project carry a published or signed government term, or only a pledge?
- For a data centre or another large load: does our place in the grid queue secure power?
- If our project is listed under the Building Canada Act, how are section 35 rights-holders consulted?
General research, not advice. Request a free pilot
Full analyst view
Every related forecast
By 31 December 2028, how much more large-load grid capacity will Alberta allocate, and will British Columbia repeat its call for demand?
F-0179 · Alberta allocates nothing further and BC does not repeat its call · 9%, our estimate, scored when it resolves · resolves by 31 Dec 2028 · Open · brief Q-026
F-0180 · Alberta allocates nothing further and BC repeats its call · 11%, our estimate, scored when it resolves · resolves by 31 Dec 2028 · Open · brief Q-026
F-0181 · Alberta allocates 1,200-2,400 MW more and BC does not repeat its call · 25%, our estimate, scored when it resolves · resolves by 31 Dec 2028 · Open · brief Q-026
F-0182 · Alberta allocates 1,200-2,400 MW more and BC repeats its call · 25%, our estimate, scored when it resolves · resolves by 31 Dec 2028 · Open · brief Q-026
F-0183 · Alberta allocates over 2,400 MW more and BC does not repeat its call · 18%, our estimate, scored when it resolves · resolves by 31 Dec 2028 · Open · brief Q-026
F-0184 · Alberta allocates over 2,400 MW more and BC repeats its call · 12%, our estimate, scored when it resolves · resolves by 31 Dec 2028 · Open · brief Q-026
By 26 June 2030, how many projects will be listed under the Building Canada Act, and will a section 35 rights-holder have started a court challenge relating to the Act?
F-0185 · No project is listed and no s.35 challenge is commenced · 6.5%, our estimate, scored when it resolves · resolves by 26 Jun 2030 · Open · brief Q-025
F-0186 · No project is listed and a s.35 challenge is commenced · 3.5%, our estimate, scored when it resolves · resolves by 26 Jun 2030 · Open · brief Q-025
F-0187 · 1-4 projects are listed and no s.35 challenge is commenced · 13.5%, our estimate, scored when it resolves · resolves by 26 Jun 2030 · Open · brief Q-025
F-0188 · 1-4 projects are listed and a s.35 challenge is commenced · 31.5%, our estimate, scored when it resolves · resolves by 26 Jun 2030 · Open · brief Q-025
F-0189 · 5 or more projects are listed and no s.35 challenge is commenced · 9%, our estimate, scored when it resolves · resolves by 26 Jun 2030 · Open · brief Q-025
F-0190 · 5 or more projects are listed and a s.35 challenge is commenced · 36%, our estimate, scored when it resolves · resolves by 26 Jun 2030 · Open · brief Q-025
Every country read
| Country | Band | Channels | Region |
|---|---|---|---|
| Canada | Host country, not banded | Americas | |
| United States | High | FDI stockProcurementCapital pledgedProject equity | Americas |
| United Kingdom | High | OfftakeProject equityFDI stock | Europe |
| Japan | High | ProcurementFDI stockOfftakeProject equity | Asia-Pacific |
| Germany | High | Project equityOfftakeProcurementFDI stock | Europe |
| China | High | OfftakeProject equityFDI stock | Asia-Pacific |
| South Korea | High | OfftakeCapital pledgedProject equity | Asia-Pacific |
| Australia | High | Capital pledgedOfftakeFDI stock | Asia-Pacific |
| United Arab Emirates | High | Capital pledgedFDI stock | Middle East and North Africa |
| Malaysia | Medium | OfftakeProject equity | Asia-Pacific |
| France | Medium | OfftakeFDI stock | Europe |
| India | Medium | Offtake | Asia-Pacific |
| Singapore | Medium | Project equity | Asia-Pacific |
| Saudi Arabia | Low | Capital pledged | Middle East and North Africa |
Briefs on this risk
How the countries are read
Each country’s band is its highest channel band, from the published lines below, quoted as published. The EU (27) entry is read as a bloc and is not counted as a country.
A country is in the theme if its headline metric on at least one channel reaches that channel's inclusion line. Canada is the host (own group). A country named in a theme brief (Q-021, Q-025, Q-026, T-001) but below every line is dropped unless the brief makes it central (primary). Bands are set per channel; a country's theme band is its highest channel band. A low-confidence figure alone caps a band at Medium, as in the other themes. US$ amounts are converted at the Bank of Canada 2025 average, 1.3978 C$ per US$.
- Capital pledged High ≥C$10bn · Medium C$3–10bn · Low C$1–3bnPledged or announced investment into Canada by a country's state funds, pension funds or companies, 2025-2026. Included from ≥C$1bn
- FDI stock High ≥10% · Medium 3–10% · Low 2–3%Direct investment stock in Canada, share of Canada's inward FDI (C$1,600.5bn, 2025). Included from ≥2%
- Project equity High ≥C$5bn · Medium C$2–5bn · Low C$1–2bnEquity attributable to a country's firms in a Canadian major project at or after FID. Included from ≥C$1bn
- Offtake High ≥4 Mtpa, or ≥C$5bn, or ≥25% of records · Medium ≥2 Mtpa, or ≥C$2bn, or 10-25% of records · Low ≥1 Mtpa, or ≥C$1bnContracted offtake from Canadian projects (LNG Mtpa; uranium or minerals by value), or share of Kitimat LNG cargo records. Included from ≥1 Mtpa, or ≥C$1bn contract value, or ≥10% of cargo records
- Procurement High ≥C$10bn · Medium C$3–10bn · Low C$1–3bnContract value won (or preferred-bidder position) by a country's firms on Canadian major projects or defence programmes. Included from ≥C$1bn. Preferred bidder or unsigned: capped at Medium.
- Rival for capital Watch not bandedA rival market for the same infrastructure allocations (qualitative). Included from named as a top destination for infrastructure capital
General lines
- C$1bn pledged, invested, contracted or won is the inclusion line on every money channel: below it a country's stake is one deal, not a position. C$10bn is the High line (a stake comparable to one large Canadian pension fund's pledge in Q-021, Exhibit X3).
- 10% of a measured Canadian flow (Kitimat cargo records; inward FDI stock uses 2%) is the share line.
- A pledge counts at face value but is labelled 'pledged, not placed' (Q-021: 1 of 7 pledges placed). A preferred-bidder or MoU position caps its channel at Medium until signed.
A figure from press or commentary is kept with low confidence and shown as an estimate. It can bring a country in, but a High band needs at least one medium- or high-confidence figure.
Sources and licences
No figure on this page yet.
Forecasts: the Strature forecast register, in its exact words, each estimate scored when it resolves. The forecast register
Country readings: Strature research from public sources, kept in our country dossiers; a figure from press or commentary is marked est.
Cite this page Strature, “Canada’s capital projects”, Strature GPS, https://strature.net/gps/risks/canada-capital-projects/, 31 Oct 2026.