Gulf war / Hormuz · Strature analysis, not from the brief
Gulf war / Hormuz: what is at stake for Singapore
Singapore is the region's refinery and fuel store: 52.3% of its 2024 crude came from Hormuz producers, and Gulf LNG fuels a power system that runs 95% on gas.
Theme band High
22.9
crude from Hormuz producers (2024)
1.5est.
refining capacity
95%
of electricity from natural gas
51.8est.
bunker fuel sold in 2025, a record
Read the full panel
Risks
- Refinery runs fell when Gulf crude stopped: ExxonMobil cut its 592 kb/d Jurong site to about 50% in Mar 2026. Estimate from press or commentary
- Gas sets the power price: gas makes 95% of electricity, and the tariff rose 2.1% in Q2 2026.
- Asian LNG spot doubled to US$22/MMBtu at the peak, so any Qatari cargo replaced on the spot market costs more.
- Bunker sales slipped: 4.77 Mt in Aug 2026, down 4% on a year earlier. Estimate from press or commentary
Opportunities
- Fuel margins were high: the Singapore gasoil margin hit a record US$85.63 a barrel on 30 Mar 2026. Estimate from press or commentary
- Singapore supplies the region's fuel: US$7.08bn of products went to Australia in 2024.
- The growth outlook rose: MTI raised its 2026 forecast to 4.5-5.5% in August. Estimate from press or commentary
Uncertainties
- Sources disagree on Qatar's LNG share: 24.8% by value in 2024 trade data, about 45% in 2025 press reports, and over half per the IEA. Estimate from press or commentary
- Refinery run cuts come from a news factbox, not company figures. Estimate from press or commentary
- Singapore discloses its oil stocks only as 'months', so no days-of-cover figure is used here.
What to watch
- 20 Nov 2026F-0074 resolves; a renewed strike would cut Gulf crude to the refineries again.
- QuarterlySP Group tariffs, which reflect fuel costs.
- MonthlyMPA bunker sales, against 4.77 Mt in Aug 2026.
- DailySingapore gasoil and complex refining margins.
- Nov 2026Whether QatarEnergy extends force majeure on Asian term buyers.
Exposure by lens
| Lens | Figure | Band | Published line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crude oilDependence | 52.3% 2024Share of crude oil imports (HS 270900, by value) from Hormuz Gulf producers | High | High ≥50% · Medium 25–50% · Low 10–25% |
| LNGEnergy | 50% 2025Share of LNG imports from Qatar and UAE (over half) | High | High ≥50% · Medium 25–50% · Low 10–25% |
| Refined productsDependence | 16.9% 2024Share of refined product imports (HS 271000, by value) from Hormuz Gulf producers | Low | High ≥40% · Medium 20–40% · Low 10–20% |
Bands follow the published materiality lines for this theme. A low-confidence figure alone caps a band at Medium.
GulfElsewhere
Drawn to scale from zero. Source: WITS/UN Comtrade: SGP crude (HS 270900) imports by partner 2024; WITS/UN Comtrade: SGP petroleum products (HS 271000) imports by partner 2024; WITS/UN Comtrade: SGP LNG (HS 271111) imports by partner 2024.
Briefs and questions
- T-003 · How much did each cargo through the Strait of Hormuz fall in 2026? Crude through the Strait fell to under a quarter of its late-2025 flow in Q2 2026.
- T-003 · Which Gulf exporters have a way to ship oil around the Strait of Hormuz? Only Saudi Arabia and the UAE can ship crude around the Strait.
- T-003 · Had Hormuz crude flows recovered by late September 2026? Refined products recovered least after the reopening.
- T-003 · Does reopening the Strait restore Qatar's LNG exports? Reopening the water does not restore Qatar's damaged LNG trains.
- S-001 F-0074 Renewed US or Israeli strike on Iran by 20 Nov 2026, 61%, our estimate, scored when it resolves.
Sources cited
- MTI Singapore: Ministerial Statement by DPM Gan Kim Yong on the impact of the Middle East situation (7 Apr 2026) (2026; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
- WITS/UN Comtrade: SGP crude (HS 270900) imports by partner 2024 (2024; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
- IEA Gas Market Report Q2-2026 (2025; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
- WITS/UN Comtrade: SGP petroleum products (HS 271000) imports by partner 2024 (2024; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
- WITS/UN Comtrade: AUS petroleum products (HS 271000) imports by partner 2024 (2024; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
- WITS/UN Comtrade: SGP LNG (HS 271111) imports by partner 2024 (2024; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
Estimates from press or commentary
- ABC News: Singapore's major oil source is blocked and experts warn Australians will pay (2 Apr 2026) (2026; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
- Marinelink: Singapore bunker sales maintain strong start in 2026 (MPA data) (2025; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
- Baird Maritime (Reuters factbox): Refineries cut runs as war on Iran disrupts exports (Mar 2026; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
- Manifold Times: Singapore bunker fuel sales down by 4% on year in August 2026 (MPA data) (2026-08; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
- Bitumen Magazine: Asia's fuel squeeze deepens as Singapore gasoil margins jump (30 Mar 2026; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
- CNBC: Singapore revises its annual growth forecast sharply higher on AI-related boost (11 Aug 2026) (11 Aug 2026; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
- Malay Mail: Middle East war may push up Singapore electricity tariffs, energy regulator warns (5 Mar 2026) (2025; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
- S&P Global: Singapore secures LNG to replace Qatar supply through 2026, regulator says (interview, Jun 2026) (2026; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
Our calculations
- Crude imports from Hormuz Gulf producers, volume: 22.9 Mt (= 12.593 + 5.189 + 3.539 + 1.548 + 0.034 Mt)
- Scenario: Gulf crude to replace per quarter if Gulf loadings fall back to the 2Q 2026 level: 4.4 Mt per quarter (= 22.9 Mt / 4 × (1 - 3.7 / 15.9) = 5.73 × 0.767 = 4.39 Mt (about 32m bbl at 7.33 bbl/t))
- Scenario: extra cost of replacing Qatari LNG for one quarter: US$0.1bn (= 3 cargoes × 3.076m MMBtu × US$11 premium = US$0.10bn)
Strature analysis, not from the brief: researched by Strature from public sources and kept in our country dossier, updated 6 Oct 2026. General research, not advice. Who is exposed to the Gulf war / Hormuz