Gulf war / Hormuz: who is exposed

A country is in the theme if its headline metric on at least one channel reaches that channel's inclusion line, or if it is a Gulf producer (own group). A country named in a brief but below every line is dropped unless the brief makes it central: central here means it is the primary country of a brief or of a question item. Bands are set per channel; a country's theme band is its highest channel band.

• Crude oil High ≥50% · Medium 25–50% · Low 10–25%Share of crude oil imports from Hormuz Gulf producers (or Middle East where only that exists). Included from ≥10%
• Refined products High ≥40% · Medium 20–40% · Low 10–20%Share of refined product imports (diesel, jet, gasoline, naphtha, LPG) from Gulf producers. Included from ≥10%
• LNG High ≥50% · Medium 25–50% · Low 10–25%Share of LNG imports from Qatar and the UAE. Included from ≥10%. Raise one band where LNG is at least 25% of gas supply or the country has no pipeline gas alternative and low storage (South Asia).
• Fertiliser (urea) High ≥50% · Medium 25–50% · Low 10–25%Share of urea (or nitrogen fertiliser) imports from Gulf producers. Included from ≥10%. Raise one band where agriculture is at least 10% of GDP or the WTO lists the economy among those combining high import dependence with strong reliance on Gulf nitrogen (T-003#q13).
• Sulphur High ≥50% · Medium 25–50%Share of sulphur imports from Gulf producers. Included from ≥25%
• Helium High ≥50% · Medium 25–50%Share of helium imports from Qatar. Included from ≥25%
• Aluminium High ≥50% · Medium 25–50%Share of unwrought aluminium imports (HS 7601) from GCC smelters. Included from ≥25%
• Remittances High ≥5% · Medium 2–5% · Low <2 but ≥US$1bnRemittances from GCC states as % of GDP. Included from ≥2% of GDP (or ≥US$1bn a year from the GCC)
• Gulf capital High ≥10 or ≥25% of FX reserves · Medium 2–10% · Low <2 but ≥US$1bnGulf state deposits, loans, rollovers and committed investment outstanding, as % of GDP (or US$bn). Included from ≥2% of GDP (or ≥US$1bn)
• Exports to the Gulf High ≥25% · Medium 10–25% · Low 5–10%Goods exports to GCC states and Iran as % of total goods exports. Included from ≥10% (or ≥5 and ≥US$1bn)
• Shipping (Suez) High ≥2% of GDP · Medium ≥1% of GDP · Low ≥US$1bnPort, canal or transshipment revenue at stake, US$bn or % of GDP. Included from ≥US$1bn or ≥1% of GDP
• Gulf producer High hydrocarbons ≥50% of revenue and ≥50% of exports transit the Strait · Medium one of the two · Low neitherHydrocarbon share of government revenue, with the share of hydrocarbon exports that must transit the Strait. Included from all Gulf producers (own group)

General lines

• 10% of a key import need supplied from the Gulf (Hormuz-dependent producers) is the floor for inclusion: below it, normal spot substitution and stocks usually absorb a loss within one stock cycle.
• US$1bn a year at stake is an inclusion line where a channel is measured in money (remittances, Gulf capital, exports to the Gulf).
• 2% of GDP or 2% of government revenue at stake is an inclusion line where a channel is measured against the economy; 5% of GDP is the High line.
• Gulf producers that ship through the Strait: Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Iran, Qatar, Bahrain. Oman ships outside the Strait and is counted only where a source does not separate it (noted per fact).

a figure from press or commentary is kept with confidence low and shown as an estimate; it can include a country but a High band needs at least one medium- or high-confidence figure.