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New build stake · 43%
Not quickly. A fund we track taking a C$1bn-plus build stake by 31 October 2027: 43% (16% with a government term, 27% without), our estimate, scored when it resolves.
New build stake · 43%
74–196 million barrels could leave Saudi Arabia in six weeks with the shuttle running, but none bought on 25 September was on file to land that soon.
Yes. In 2026 US exposure was rule-set exposure, written in Washington; the next dated tests are the 3 November midterm and a China truce end announced for 10 January 2027.
One in practice: revenue, supply and compliance exposure answer to the same dated decisions; their shared hinge, as announced on 24 September, moved to 10 January 2027.
No. The most likely of six registered futures, a Guard-run holding pattern, stands at 13.74%, our estimate, scored when it resolves; about 43% lies outside all six.
F-0020 · 13.74%
No. The more concentrated side is supply: China supplied 40.9 per cent of Vietnam's 2025 imports, against a 32.2 per cent US share of exports, for as long as assembly runs on imported components.
Repriced cargo by cargo: by mid-2026 LNG kept under a tenth and crude under a quarter of their late-2025 flow through the Strait, and by 28 September crude, on Kpler's pre-war baseline, was back; products were not.
Not on the published record: 6 of the 35 full transits in 2025 were commercial, and Canada publishes no Arctic icebreaking fee, so the Coast Guard sells no Arctic escort slot.
It has started, but small: in 12 months to July 2026, 11.3 of 96.8 bcm of gas exports and 32.6 of 256.0 million m³ of crude went beyond the US.
Mainly a Taiwan continuity exposure, not a China-demand one: Taiwan-only nodes earned 33 per cent of second-quarter 2026 wafer revenue, China-based customers 6 per cent, until leading-edge volume starts elsewhere.
Likely, as registered on 21 August 2026: 61% that US or Israeli forces strike Iran by 20 November 2026, our estimate, scored when it resolves; on 21 August the strait was shut by permit.
A QUALIFYING STRIKE · 61%, OUR ESTIMATE
Exposure is set by the tariff line, not the sector: 666 US lines carry the Section 338 duty of 50 per cent, and 68 are excluded from importation since 29 September 2026.
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