By 31 December 2026 the duty lasts or widens in futures we put at 70%, eases on some lines in 23%, ends in 7%; each our estimate, scored when it resolves.
Evidence to 30 September 2026; facts refreshed 30 September 2026.
Dashed line: Even odds · 50%
Lasts · 70%
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Each answer is quoted verbatim from the brief, with the section that answers it and the countries it touches. Answers with a register ID are our estimates, scored when they resolve; the others are the brief’s reading of the evidence, not forecasts.
“Absorbing the 50% erases margins unless US customers carry at least 54 to 81% with no sales lost; at the mildest loss, 88 to 91%, paper and electrical only (our calculation). Decision point: 4 November, confirmed 8 December.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada Affected United States
“By 31 December 2026 the duty lasts or widens in futures we put at 70%, eases on some lines in 23%, ends in 7%; each our estimate, scored when it resolves.”
our estimate, scored when it resolvesOn the register: F-0156 7%, open · F-0157 23%, open · F-0158 25%, open · F-0159 28%, open · F-0160 15%, open · F-0161 1%, open. The forecast register
Primary Canada Affected United States
“No instrument read ends or cuts the Section 338 duty or gives it an end date, which means an exporter could plan on it lasting into 2027.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada Affected United States
“Whether the duty bites is decided by the ten-digit tariff line, not by the sector a firm belongs to.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada Affected United States
“No filing we read shows US customers dropping Canadian suppliers, and every period in them ended before the duty began.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada Affected United States
“Absorbing the duty erases the margin in the five largest groups unless US customers carry at least 54 to 81% of it, with no sales lost (our calculation).”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada Affected United States
“Most tariff relief must be repaid, and none of it is sized to the US duty.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada Affected United States
“Every Section 338 instrument so far was a US proclamation or customs bulletin, which means the CUSMA review has not been where an exporter's duty is set.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada Affected United States
“No suit against the Section 338 duty has been found, which means a court exit, at the only pace on record, would stop collection after June 2027.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada Affected United States
“Our reading of the published rules, not a customs ruling: a US finishing step leaves the duty in place, because it is charged as the Canadian article crosses.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada Affected United States
“Other markets take only a slice of what Canada ships to the US today, since the US buys almost all of it.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada Affected United States
“Of 12 relocation announcements on record, 9 cut Canadian capacity and none moves a whole plant to the US.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada Affected United States
“The review that could end the duty has no date, while the trade data that show who pays arrive on fixed days.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada Affected United States
“If a court strikes the Section 338 duty, the refund goes to whoever entered the goods, not to the firm that made them.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada Affected United States
“On the worked line, a redirect breaks even after 9.9 months and a move with an unlisted input after 36”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada Affected United States
“No listed line had a trade month after the duty began, and no exporter or US buyer filing covered a period after 22 August 2026.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada Affected United States
Registered forecasts are never changed: they stay as issued and are scored as registered. Facts found after the research date are listed here with their date and source.
| No. | Forecast | Estimate | Issued | Resolves | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F-0156 | the duty ends | 7% our estimate, scored when it resolves | Issued 30 Sep 2026 | Resolves 31 Dec 2026 | Open |
| F-0157 | partial relief | 23% our estimate, scored when it resolves | Issued 30 Sep 2026 | Resolves 31 Dec 2026 | Open |
| F-0158 | the duty lasts, US-bound sales hold | 25.2% our estimate, scored when it resolves | Issued 30 Sep 2026 | Resolves 31 Dec 2026 | Open |
| F-0159 | the duty lasts, US-bound sales cut | 28% our estimate, scored when it resolves | Issued 30 Sep 2026 | Resolves 31 Dec 2026 | Open |
| F-0160 | the duty lasts, US-bound sales collapse | 15.4% our estimate, scored when it resolves | Issued 30 Sep 2026 | Resolves 31 Dec 2026 | Open |
| F-0161 | the duty lasts, sales not yet measured | 1.4% our estimate, scored when it resolves | Issued 30 Sep 2026 | Resolves 31 Dec 2026 | Open |
No fact has been added since the research date.
No new forecast is issued with these facts; a new view would be a new, separately dated forecast.
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