Geopolitical · geoeconomic · geotechnology · Toronto

Consulting and forecasts on the things that matter in the changing world order.

Strature advises organisations on geo-strategy and geo-business strategy, and measures their exposure to regulation, sanctions and policy where they actually operate.

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The world order is changing. Regulation, sanctions, trade measures, technology rules: each one reaches a company somewhere it operates.

Strature is a consulting and forecasting firm in Toronto. It works on the things that matter in the changing world order: geopolitical, geoeconomic, and geotechnology.

For an organisation, that means three questions. What can reach us? Where does it bite? What is dated? An exposure assessment answers them, weighted by where the company earns its revenue.

Strature Advisory works with one organisation at a time: geo-strategy, where to be and where not to be; geo-business strategy, what the picture means for one business; forecasts and scenarios; and briefings for a board.

Strature Briefs is a published series. Each brief asks one question that can be settled, and answers it with a registered probability. Every probability is our estimate, scored when it resolves.

Four rules hold the work. Nothing is invented. A retrieval asserts its own completeness. A scan of nothing is not a clean scan. And a conflict is printed, not resolved.

Strature. Geopolitical GPS dot com. General research, not advice.

Latest from the library

12 issues published. The newest:

Each issue answers one question. The one-page sheet and the executive read are free to everyone; the full brief is supplied to organisations, free during the introductory period.

Decision BriefQ-021Edition 1.1 Released

Can Canada turn promised capital into built projects?

Not quickly. A fund we track taking a C$1bn-plus build stake by 31 October 2027: 43% (16% with a government term, 27% without), our estimate, scored when it resolves.

Exhibit X18A new build stake by October 2027 is less likely than not: 43%

New build stake · 43%

SourceStrature forecast register, F-0151 to F-0155, registered 28 Sep 2026.Strature
Decision BriefQ-023Edition 1.0 Released

If the Strait of Hormuz stays closed, how much Saudi crude can reach buyers, and for how long?

74–196 million barrels could leave Saudi Arabia in six weeks with the shuttle running, but none bought on 25 September was on file to land that soon.

Exhibit X05Large tankers sat at Al Muajjiz on 10 of 11 images before the halt
01 Aug3
06 Aug0
11 Aug1
SourceStrature count; contains modified Copernicus Sentinel data 2026; berth positions from OpenStreetMap contributors, available under the Open Database Licence (ODbL).Strature
Country OutlookC-003Edition 1.0 Released

Is exposure to China three risks or one?

One in practice: revenue, supply and compliance exposure answer to the same dated decisions; their shared hinge, as announced on 24 September, moved to 10 January 2027.

Country OutlookC-002Edition 1.0 Released

Is any single future for Iran likely?

No. The most likely of six registered futures, a Guard-run holding pattern, stands at 13.74%, our estimate, scored when it resolves; about 43% lies outside all six.

Exhibit X1The most likely registered future holds 13.74%; 43.2% lies outside all six

F-0020 · 13.74%

SourceStrature forecast register, lines 196-199, 201-202; hashes verified 30 Sep 2026.Strature

All 12 issues in the library

Strature GPS · Geopolitical · Geoeconomic · Geotechnology

202 questions answered, across 50 countries.

Every question our released briefs answer, placed on the countries it touches, the answer quoted verbatim.

Open Strature GPS

World map: the 50 countries with answered questions are lit.
Strature Advisory

Engagements for one organisation, under an engagement letter.

Geopolitical, geoeconomic and geotechnology advisory for a company, an investor or a board. Strature never recommends securities.

01Capability

Geo-strategy

Where to be, and where not to be, as the world order changes.

02Capability

Geo-business strategy

What the geopolitical picture means for one business and its footprint.

Strature Exposure · a worked case

Royal Bank of Canada: one edition, read end to end.

The edition assesses 41 changes that can reach RBC: six rules already in force, four comment periods closing within 30 days, and six more dated by 31 Dec 2026.

Restated from the edition’s summary, Strature Exposure, RBC, 28 Sep 2026

The regulations, bills, trade measures, sanctions and policies found for a company where it operates, weighted by where it earns its revenue, with every place not read printed as a gap, each with its official text and the options it opens. Re-issued as an edition.

RBC is the subject of the analysis, not a client. No endorsement by RBC is implied. Figures: edition of 28 Sep 2026, built from public sources.

Exhibit H-2 · Bars against a datum · RBC
Canada carries 62.8% of RBC’s revenue; the United States a quarter.
Share of total revenue by geographic segment, fiscal year ended 31 October 2025. Percent.
Canada62.8%
United States25.8%
Other international11.3%
Percent of total revenue
The reading

Canada alone is more than half of the bank’s revenue, so a Canadian rule carries more weight in its exposure picture than an American one, and one from elsewhere less again.

SourceRBC Annual Report 2025, Note 26, Results by business segment, geographic segments table, Consolidated Financial Statements, p.234. How to read this plateThe accent marks the part of Canada’s share that lies above half of revenue. Strature
The firm

Founder-led, from Toronto.

Milad Naeimi

Milad Naeimi

Founder and Principal, Strature

Milad Naeimi, Founder and Principal, Strature, built its method and platform to show companies how regulation, politics and sanctions reach their operations.

About the Principal
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