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Going round the Cape for 90 days loses nothing on lanes with a cited Cape route: 55 million barrels of the economies shown arrive late, most of it the EU's. Illustrative arithmetic on stated assumptions; not a forecast; not advice. Illustrative arithmetic on stated assumptions; it does not say whether, when or for how long a strait will close.
This page answers: Who depends on this strait, who runs short first if it closes, and what is there to watch?
Nearest related forecast; not a closure probability.
In the register’s exact words, each with our estimate, scored when it resolves.
As published, each with its source and period: the most recent full year and the most recent quarter on file. Every year on file is under Traffic and prices in the full analyst view.
Buyers whose supply of each good passes the strait on its modelled main route, as the network records list them; the five goods with the most records. The EU (27) is a bloc, on the switch, never added to its members. Volumes and sources in the Network map.
Case: Red Sea: half of traffic avoids Bab el-Mandeb for 90 days. For each country, the day on file when its supply shortfall begins, or, where nothing runs short, when its late-arrival gap begins.
Nothing on file runs short in this case: cargo arrives late, and late is never added to lost. The 5 countries on file are listed by the day their late-arrival gap begins.
late-arrival gap: cargo still at sea, arrives late; not a loss · Aluminium, Ammonia, Barley, Crude oil
late-arrival gap: cargo still at sea, arrives late; not a loss · Crude oil, Urea and nitrogen fertilisers, Wheat
late-arrival gap: cargo still at sea, arrives late; not a loss · Aluminium, Barley, Crude oil, Helium
Inside the EU (27) figure: shown, never added to it or to a totallate-arrival gap: cargo still at sea, arrives late; not a loss · Aluminium, Ammonia, Barley, Crude oil
Inside the EU (27) figure: shown, never added to it or to a totallate-arrival gap: cargo still at sea, arrives late; not a loss · Aluminium, Phosphates, Polyethylene and polypropylene, Refined fuels
nothing lost: cargo arrives late · Crude oil
Days as on file in the precomputed case “Bab el-Mandeb avoided by half of traffic for 90 days” (Strature network pack, engine 1.2.2, the network map’s default settings). Day 0 is the first day of the closure; the shaded part of each line is the closure (90 days); each line runs to day 120.
Illustrative arithmetic on stated assumptions; not a forecast; not advice. Illustrative arithmetic on stated assumptions; it does not say whether, when or for how long a strait will close.
The Stock Clock in the Network map: clocks, lanes and a table
General research, not advice. Request a free pilot
The Atlas tool and the briefing exist for the Strait of Hormuz only; for this strait they are in preparation.
In short Going round the Cape for 90 days loses nothing on lanes with a cited Cape route: 55 million barrels of the economies shown arrive late, most of it the EU's. Illustrative arithmetic on stated assumptions; not a forecast; not advice. Illustrative arithmetic on stated assumptions; it does not say whether, when or for how long a strait will close.
No forecast on this strait yet.
In short Closing Bab el-Mandeb as well adds delay, not loss: Saudi crude sent round Africa arrives 27-36 days late. Illustrative arithmetic on stated assumptions; not a forecast; not advice. Illustrative arithmetic on stated assumptions; it does not say whether, when or for how long a strait will close.
The Bab el-Mandeb in the Network map
Suppliers, the strait and buyers on one map, good by good, with the Stock Clock.
| Year | Oil | LNG |
|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 6.2 mb/dSource [3] | – |
| 2020 | 5.7 mb/dSource [4] | 3.8 Bcf/dSource [4] |
| 2021 | 6 mb/dSource [5] | 4.7 Bcf/dSource [5] |
| 2022 | 8 mb/dSource [6] | 4.6 Bcf/dSource [6] |
| 2023 | 9.3 mb/dSource [7] | 4.2 Bcf/dSource [7] |
| 2024 | 4.1 mb/dSource [1] | 0 Bcf/dSource [1] |
| 1H 2025 | 4.2 mb/dSource [8] | 0 Bcf/dSource [8] |
| 4Q 2025 | 5.4 mb/dSource [9] | – |
| 2Q 2026 | 8.1 mb/dSource [2] | – |
Published studies for comparable disruptions. Not a Strature price. Not a forecast.
Every figure on this page carries its source, its year and a link; figures from 2023 or older carry an amber mark. Route shares are modelled estimates on cited figures. The days in “Who runs short first” are read from the precomputed cases the network map and the scenario pages use; nothing is added across goods, late cargo is never added to lost cargo, and the EU (27) is never added to its members. The forecast box shows our register’s words and estimates unchanged, each scored when it resolves.
Cite this page Strature, “Bab el-Mandeb”, Strature GPS, https://strature.net/gps/chokepoints/bab-el-mandeb/, 31 Oct 2026.