Taiwan

• Taiwan Strait closed to transit for 7 days →

  No oil flow on file crosses the Taiwan Strait, so no volumes are shown; ships routed east of Taiwan add up to 3 days.

  Illustrative arithmetic on stated assumptions; not a forecast; not advice. Illustrative arithmetic on stated assumptions; it does not say whether, when or for how long a strait will close.

• X-001 TSMC's geopolitical exposure sits on one island, not in its China sales
• C-005 China: Borrowing for the Past

Each country’s band is its highest channel band, from the published lines below, quoted as published. The EU (27) entry is read as a bloc and is not counted as a country.

A country is in the theme if its headline metric on at least one channel reaches that channel's inclusion line, or if it is the primary country (Taiwan). A country named in a brief but below every line is dropped unless the brief makes it central: central here means primary on a brief item, or a host of a TSMC fab named on X-001's fab table. Bands are set per channel; a country's theme band is its highest exposure-channel band. The 'alternative capacity' channel measures a stake that can gain, not a loss, and is shown as an opportunity band.

• Chip imports High ≥40% · Medium 25–40% · Low 15–25%Share of electronic integrated circuit (HS 8542) imports from Taiwan, by value. Included from ≥15% and imports ≥US$1bn a year. Raise one band where chip-using exports (electronics or semiconductors) are at least 40% of goods exports, or where the advanced-logic share (HS 854231 from Taiwan) is at least 50%. Hub reporters are not raised for re-export alone.
• Advanced logic High ≥50% · Medium 25–50%Share of processor and controller (HS 854231) imports from Taiwan, or an official statement of leading-edge dependence. Included from ≥25% and imports ≥US$1bn a year
• Chip-using industry High ≥40% · Medium 20–40%Electronics or semiconductor exports as % of goods exports (the industries that stop when chips stop). Included from ≥20% of goods exports, together with chip-imports ≥15% from Taiwan or the country hosting packaging of Taiwan-made dies
• Host fabs High ≥US$20bn · Medium US$5–20bn · Low US$1–5bn, or an operating fab without a disclosed figureInvestment by TSMC or another Taiwanese foundry (or its licensed partner) in fabs on the country's soil, US$bn. Included from ≥US$1bn, or a TSMC fab on X-001's fab table
• Equipment and materials High ≥25% · Medium 15–25%Share of the country's semiconductor equipment exports (HS 8486), or of its national champions' sales, going to Taiwan. Included from ≥15% and ≥US$1bn a year. Raise one band where the country's firms hold more than half of a world market for an input Taiwan's fabs cannot replace within a year (Japanese photoresist and silicon wafers; Dutch EUV lithography).
• Gas inputs High ≥50% · Medium 25–50%Country's share of Taiwan's imports of helium or neon (supplier side). Included from ≥25%
• Alternative capacity (gain) High ≥20% of sub-10nm capacity · Medium ≥5% of foundry revenue or ≥10% of assembly-packaging-test · Low ≥3% of foundry revenue or an expected ≥10% of sub-10nm capacityShare of world foundry revenue held by the country's firms outside Taiwan, or share of world sub-10nm logic capacity. Included from ≥3% of foundry revenue, or ≥10% of sub-10nm capacity (now or expected by 2032), or ≥10% of world assembly-packaging-test
• Primary country High always (primary country)Taiwan: share of TSMC wafer revenue from nodes made only in Taiwan; IC exports. Included from Taiwan (primary in X-001)

General lines

• 15% of a country's chip (HS 8542) imports supplied from Taiwan is the floor for inclusion, with at least US$1bn of chip imports a year: Taiwan supplies about a fifth of most large importers' chips, so a 10% line would include almost every reporter; below 15% other origins (Malaysia, South Korea, China) usually dominate and a Taiwan stop is a second-order loss.
• US$1bn a year is the inclusion line where a channel is measured in money (chip imports, fab investment, equipment sales).
• Chip-using exports measured against a country's goods exports: 20% is the inclusion line, 40% the High line (the general macro lines translated into an export share).
• In the international trade statistics used here, Taiwan is partner code 490, 'Other Asia, nes'. Reporter (importer) data are used; Taiwan does not report its own trade to them. Hub reporters (Singapore, Hong Kong, Malaysia, the Philippines, Vietnam) re-export or process much of what they import; their shares are marked as hub figures.

A figure from press or commentary is kept with low confidence and shown as an estimate. It can bring a country in, but on its own it cannot lift a band above Medium.

No figure on this page yet.

Forecasts: the Strature forecast register, in its exact words, each estimate scored when it resolves. The forecast register

Country readings: Strature research from public sources, kept in our country dossiers; a figure from press or commentary is marked est.

Cite this page Strature, “Taiwan”, Strature GPS, https://strature.net/gps/risks/taiwan/, 31 Oct 2026.