Mainly a Taiwan continuity exposure, not a China-demand one: Taiwan-only nodes earned 33 per cent of second-quarter 2026 wafer revenue, China-based customers 6 per cent, until leading-edge volume starts elsewhere.
Archive edition. Researched 23 July 2026; harmonised to the current house standard 30 September 2026. Evidence to 30 September 2026; facts refreshed 30 September 2026.
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“Mainly a Taiwan continuity exposure, not a China-demand one: Taiwan-only nodes earned 33 per cent of second-quarter 2026 wafer revenue, China-based customers 6 per cent, until leading-edge volume starts elsewhere.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“No. China-based customers were 6% of 2Q26 revenue, down from 12% in 2023.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“TSMC's Nanjing fab (16nm) received US-origin items under a Validated End-User authorization until December 2025. TSMC reports that the U.S. Department of Commerce then granted TSMC Nanjing an annual export licence”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“In Taiwan: Fab 18 (3nm) and Fabs 20 and 22 (2nm), on TSMC's table of 28 Feb 2026.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“3nm and 2nm earned 33% of 2Q26 wafer revenue; 7nm and below, 77%.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Taiwan
“The two largest took 36% of 2025 net revenue; the ten largest, 78%.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Taiwan
“2 to 3 points of gross margin early, 3 to 4 points later.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“3nm or 2nm volume production reported outside Taiwan, or China-based revenue back above a tenth.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“The source edition translated a US–China outlook into three pathways for TSMC. None of them is scored here, and this edition does not rank them.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“In that tail the exposed quantity is the leading-edge franchise, not a revenue slice: the nodes made only in Taiwan earned 33% of 2Q26 wafer revenue, and 7nm and below 77%.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Taiwan
“TSMC's third-quarter 2026 results were not yet published; its results conference is scheduled for 15 Oct 2026, with a quiet period from 5 to 14 Oct.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Taiwan
Registered forecasts are never changed: they stay as issued and are scored as registered. Facts found after the research date are listed here with their date and source.
No forecast is registered with this edition.
TSMC reported July 2026 revenue of about NT$467.58bn, up 44.7% from July 2025.
TSMC press release, 10 Aug 2026 (retrieved 30 Sep 2026)
TSMC's board approved capital appropriations of about US$29.44bn, mainly for advanced-technology capacity, advanced packaging, mature and specialty capacity, and fab construction.
TSMC board resolutions, 11 Aug 2026 (retrieved 30 Sep 2026)
Sony Semiconductor Solutions and TSMC signed a definitive agreement for an image-sensor joint venture in Koshi City, Kumamoto; TSMC plans cash contributions of about ¥282bn, Sony is to be the sole controlling shareholder, and volume production is expected in 2029, subject to regulatory approvals.
TSMC press release, 11 Aug 2026 (retrieved 30 Sep 2026)
TSMC reported August 2026 revenue of about NT$514.81bn, up 53.3% from August 2025; revenue for January to August 2026 was NT$3,386.87bn, up 39.3%.
TSMC press release, 10 Sep 2026 (retrieved 30 Sep 2026)
TSMC's third-quarter 2026 results were not yet published; its results conference is scheduled for 15 Oct 2026, with a quiet period from 5 to 14 Oct. The revenue tables in this edition therefore remain those of 2Q26.
TSMC investor relations, 3Q26 results page (retrieved 30 Sep 2026)
Corrections to the source edition found in the refresh: Arizona's first facility entered high-volume production at the end of 2024, not in 2025; Taiwan's listing of Huawei and SMIC dates from June 2025, not June 2026; EMEA was 3% of 2025 revenue, not 4%; the US footprint also includes Fab 11 in Washington State.
TSMC Form 20-F, 16 Apr 2026; TechPowerUp, 16 Jun 2025 (retrieved 30 Sep 2026)
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