Exhibit S-1 · Supply balanceHow much each country makes, buys and sellsConsumption = production + imports − exports (± stock change).Reading the supply balance
Supply balance first, suppliers second.
Each card shows the latest complete period: the newest with consumption and at least one of production, imports and exports on file. The table also keeps the newest period where it is partial.
Shown in million cubic metres.
Shown first: the two largest net importers and the two largest net exporters on file, latest complete period.
China
2024 · million m3NET IMPORTER
Production3 million m3
Imports22.4 million m3
Exportsnot on file
Consumption27.1 million m3
Net import dependence
88.9% Low confidenceestimate
Via a strait, share of use
not on file
Stocks cover
not on file
In 2024, China imported 22.4 million m3 and produced 3 million m3. Net imports met 88.9% of its use. Its exports is not on file.
Exhibit S-2 · MapHelium: net import dependence, country by countryHelium · Colour: net import dependence, latest complete period on file. Tap a country for its balance.
Exhibit S-4 · Every figureEvery figure, as a tableEvery figure: the latest complete period per country, and the newest where it is partial. Scroll sideways inside the table on a phone.
The CSV leaves out 2 rows. Their sources (China Mining Magazine (authors: Information Center, Ministry of Natural Resources); China Mining Magazine (authors: CNPC Planning and Engineering Institute)) allow their figures to be cited, not passed on. They are in the table with their source.
6 of 7 buyers on file, most suppliers first; every flow is in the flow ledger. Each share is the supplier’s share of that buyer’s imports of this good, as published (one unit, per cent); shares are never added. The EU (27) is a bloc, on the switch, never added to its members. Records whose every figure is zero stay in the ledger only.
8 of the 12 flows on file pass it on their modelled route
Suez Canal
8 of the 12 flows on file pass it on their modelled route
Counts are counts of flow records (records whose every figure is zero left out). Routes are modelled main routes, not ship tracks; a share is shown only where a source gives it.
If a strait closes
Who runs short first
Case: Strait of Hormuz closed, restricted or unsafe. For each country, the day on file when its supply shortfall begins for this good, or, where nothing runs short, when its late-arrival gap begins.
3 of the 3 countries on file for this good reach a supply shortfall in this case; the first to run short are listed first.
EU (27)supply shortfall begins:day 19
first day with cargo lost (no stock record on file)
Francesupply shortfall begins:day 19
first day with cargo lost (no stock record on file)
Inside the EU (27) figure: shown, never added to it or to a total
Germanysupply shortfall begins:day 19
first day with cargo lost (no stock record on file)
Inside the EU (27) figure: shown, never added to it or to a total
Japansupply shortfall begins:day 20
first day with cargo lost (no stock record on file)
Days as on file in the precomputed case “Strait of Hormuz closed for 30 days” (Strature network pack, the network map’s default settings). Day 0 is the first day of the closure; the shaded part of each line is the closure (30 days); each line runs to day 120.
Illustrative arithmetic on stated assumptions; not a forecast; not advice. Illustrative arithmetic on stated assumptions; it does not say whether, when or for how long a strait will close.
Forecast register
Related forecasts in our register
Nearest related forecast; not about this good alone.
In the register’s exact words, each with our estimate, scored when it resolves.
F-0074 · A renewed US or Israeli strike on Iran, 22 Aug-20 Nov 2026 · 61%, our estimate, scored when it resolves · resolves by 20 Nov 2026 · Open · brief S-001
Basis: observed (reported by the buyer), mirror (reported by the supplier) or cited (a published figure). Volumes are shown in the one unit the pack uses for this good and are never added. Rows to the EU (27) show on the switch.
Supplier concentration
No supplier concentration index on file for this good. The flow ledger lists the suppliers on file.
The full views
The Network map →suppliers, straits and buyers on one map, good by good, with the Stock Clock
In short In a 30-day closure some oil never arrives at all: of the economies shown, China loses the most, 310-317 million barrels. Illustrative arithmetic on stated assumptions; not a forecast; not advice. Illustrative arithmetic on stated assumptions; it does not say whether, when or for how long a strait will close.
In short Going round the Cape for 90 days loses nothing on lanes with a cited Cape route: 55 million barrels of the economies shown arrive late, most of it the EU's. Illustrative arithmetic on stated assumptions; not a forecast; not advice. Illustrative arithmetic on stated assumptions; it does not say whether, when or for how long a strait will close.
In short Closing the Strait of Malacca causes delay, not loss: ships go by Lombok and Makassar, about 3 days longer. Illustrative arithmetic on stated assumptions; not a forecast; not advice. Illustrative arithmetic on stated assumptions; it does not say whether, when or for how long a strait will close.
Briefs
S-001 Iran and the Strait of Hormuz: a scenario brief
Method
Every figure on this page carries its source, its year and a link; figures from 2023 or older carry an amber mark. The flows are the Strature network pack (approved, independently re-checked); a good has its own page when the pack carries ten or more flows for it. Shares are as published and never added; volumes stay in the one unit the pack uses for the good and are never added across goods. Routes are modelled main routes. The days in “Who runs short first” are read from the precomputed cases the network map and the scenario pages use; late cargo is never added to lost cargo, and the EU (27) is never added to its members. The forecast box shows our register’s words and estimates unchanged, each scored when it resolves.