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Strait of Malacca closed for 14 days

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This page answers: What happens to shipping if the Strait of Malacca is closed?

Using this page
  1. Watch the map: where the ships go instead.
  2. Read who is hit and how much crude crosses the strait.
  3. Follow the day-by-day chart to see when the late cargo lands.

In every run on file, from 7 to 180 days, no oil of the economies shown is lost when the Strait of Malacca closes: ships go by the Lombok and Makassar straits, about 3 days longer.

Approved reading, quoted in full under What this means.

In short Closing the Strait of Malacca causes delay, not loss: ships go by Lombok and Makassar, about 3 days longer. Illustrative arithmetic on stated assumptions; not a forecast; not advice.

Part of Strait of Malacca

Stopped at Malacca

159 mb

crude due in 14 days, buyers on file

Arrives late

159 mb

+3 to +10 days (average +3 to +5)

Lost

0 mb

no crude on file is lost

On time

0 mb

no cargo at sea counted (simplified)

Simplified. No recovery and no cushion: traffic is normal again on day 14, and cargo already past the strait is not counted separately. With the strait closed for the whole period, 159 mb arrives late and none is lost. Held at the strait, then late: none (no waiting rule at Malacca in this case).

Is anything lost?

No. Every buyer's crude due through the strait in the 14 days, 159 million barrels on file, goes round by the Lombok and Makassar straits and arrives 3 to 10 days late. The 15 other goods on file through the strait also arrive late; none is lost.

Written from the cited figures by fixed rules.

Illustrative arithmetic on stated assumptions; not a forecast; not advice. It does not say whether, when or for how long a strait will close. Figures as of 6 Oct 2026; each figure shows its own period. Terms

Who is hitDay by dayThe detours

Where the ships go instead

modelled routes
Map: the usual lanes from the Gulf to East Asia through the Strait of Malacca, and the longer detour by the Lombok and Makassar straits

Routes are modelled, not ship tracks; the detour line is schematic; region level only; not for navigation. Moving dots on desktop only.

Who is hit

Strature arithmeticLate is not lost

Crude oil due through the strait in the 14 days, by buyer on file. Late cargo is shown with its extra days and is never added to lost.

BuyerLost, mbLate, mbExtra daysStill at sea on day 14
China093+3 to +1020
Still at sea on day 1420
Japan031+3 to +107
Still at sea on day 147
South Korea030+3 to +106
Still at sea on day 146
India04+3 to +101
Still at sea on day 141
Pakistan00.1+3 to +100.03
Still at sea on day 140.03
United States––––
Due after the period: departs inside it, would arrive after it (no country row)00––
All buyers on file0159+3 to +1034
Still at sea on day 1434
on timearrives late (+days)lost

Other goods on file through the strait

How much crude crosses the strait

Cited

EIA's figures for crude through the Strait of Malacca by buyer, first half of 2025, beside the flows on file that this case counts.

Day by day: when the late cargo lands

Strature arithmetic

Arrivals by sea for one buyer. Nothing lands while ships take the longer route; then the late cargo lands. The two rows are the low and high runs of the re-routing delay.

late cargo landingnothing lands (cargo still at sea)usual daily flow

Other lengths, same simplified case

Strature arithmetic

Crude arriving late for all buyers on file if the strait closes for 7 to 180 days, on one scale. Lost is zero in every run.

The table: crude arriving late, by buyer, and crude lost, in million barrels (mb).

What this means

Approved reading

In every run on file, from 7 to 180 days, no oil of the economies shown is lost when the Strait of Malacca closes: ships go by the Lombok and Makassar straits, about 3 days longer. The cost is delay. In the card's 14-day closure, 93 million barrels of China's oil, 31 million of Japan's and 30 million of South Korea's arrive late. Illustrative arithmetic, not a forecast.

This reading is for the page's own case: the strait closed 14 days, simplified (no recovery, no cushion), detour by Lombok and Makassar. Other choices change the results, not the reading.

The detours: Lombok and Makassar, and Sunda

Two other ways run from the Indian Ocean into the seas of East Asia. This case sends every diverted ship by Lombok and Makassar.

Assumptions, each with its evidence

Each item below is a Strature assumption or a cited figure. The evidence beside an assumption is cited; the assumption is ours.

What did published studies find?

Published estimates

Strature computes no price. Published figures are matched to a case by the size and length of the oil gap.

Published studies for comparable disruptions. Not a Strature price. Not a forecast.

Insurance and frictions: observed

Observed

War-risk cover for the strait, as published: dated marks, one per cited fact, no line between them. Not a forecast.

    Things to watch

    Official statistics and country-level events that show whether shipping through the strait is normal.

      Country pages

      Each opens the country page with this case selected.

      No forecast on this strait yet. The forecast register

      What this leaves out, method and sources

        Method details: assumptions and all sources used on this page
        1. Strature calculation from China customs figures as reported by TASS (Russian state media): China's 2025 crude imports by origin, converted with PPAC factors (20 Jan 2026) (2025) · medium · source
        2. Strature calculation from China customs figures as reported by TASS (Russian state media): China's 2025 crude imports by origin, converted with PPAC factors (20 Jan 2026) (2025) · medium · source
        3. Strature calculation from China customs figures as reported by TASS (Russian state media): China's 2025 crude imports by origin, converted with PPAC factors (20 Jan 2026) (2025) · medium · source
        4. Strature calculation from China customs figures as reported by TASS (Russian state media): China's 2025 LNG imports by origin, converted with PPAC factors (20 Jan 2026) (2025) · low · source
        5. Strature calculation: J.M. Baxi Marine Services, 'Liquid Gases' monthly report, February 2026 (Apr'25-Jan'26), source: PPAC, converted from tonnes of LNG at 1,325 cubic metres of gas per tonne (PPAC) (Apr 2025-Jan 2026) · medium · source
        6. Argus: Japan has enough oil supply to last into next year - PM (8 Apr 2026) (2025) · high · source
        7. MEES, 'Korea Crude Imports: MidEast Volumes, Share Drop To 3-Year Low' (23 Jan 2026), citing Korea's trade statistics (2025) · low · source
        8. J.M. Baxi Marine Services, 'Liquid Gases' monthly report, February 2026 (Apr'25-Jan'26), source: PPAC (Apr 2025-Jan 2026) · high · source
        9. DOE Office of Petroleum Reserves: SPR Quick Facts (current (page read 2026-10-09)) · high · source
        10. EIA Today in Energy: China, the United States, and Japan hold most strategic oil inventories in 2025 (20 Apr 2026) (2025-12) · medium · source
        11. OpenGov.jp: Japan petroleum reserves trends (republishes METI/ANRE Sekiyu bichiku no genkyo) (2026-07 (end of month)) · medium · source
        12. KNOC: Stockpiling bases in operation (bichuk giji unyeong hyeonhwang), as of 2026-08-31 (2026-08-31) · high · source
        13. SmartToday: 韓, 정부 비축유 1억 배럴 돌파…비상시 210日 사용량 (22 Dec 2025), citing the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Resources (2025-12-22) · medium · source
        14. EIA World Oil Transit Chokepoints (last updated 3 Mar 2026) (2020) · high · source
        15. EIA World Oil Transit Chokepoints (last updated 3 Mar 2026) (2020) · high · source
        16. Strature calculation from EIA (48% of 16.6 mb/d) (1H25) · medium · source
        17. House of Councillors (Japan), Cabinet written answer 186-104 (3 Jun 2014): Gulf to Tokyo Bay via Lombok and Makassar vs via Malacca (2014) · high · source
        18. Strature calculation from EIA, China Country Analysis Brief (May 2025), Figure 8: China's crude oil and condensate imports by source, 2024 (data: EIA, Vortexa and Global Trade Tracker), and EIA Today in Energy (5 Jun 2026): China 2025 crude imports 11.6 mb/d (2025 (est. from 2024 origin shares)) · low · source
        19. Strature calculation from EIA, China Country Analysis Brief (May 2025), Figure 8: China's crude oil and condensate imports by source, 2024 (data: EIA, Vortexa and Global Trade Tracker), and EIA Today in Energy (5 Jun 2026): China 2025 crude imports 11.6 mb/d (2025 (est. from 2024 origin shares)) · low · source
        20. Strature calculation from EIA, China Country Analysis Brief (May 2025), Figure 8: China's crude oil and condensate imports by source, 2024 (data: EIA, Vortexa and Global Trade Tracker), and EIA Today in Energy (5 Jun 2026): China 2025 crude imports 11.6 mb/d (2025 (est. from 2024 origin shares)) · low · source
        21. Apex Securities (via The Star), a Malacca shutdown and inflation (3 Aug 2026) (2026-08-03) · low · source
        22. MIDF Research (via The Edge), the Belt and Road and Malacca (2018) (2018) · low · source
        23. EIA International Energy Data (API v2, bulk): crude oil, reported by United States (2019-2025) · high · source
        24. EIA International Energy Data (API v2, bulk): LNG, reported by United States (2019-2025) · medium · source
        25. EIA US imports and exports by partner country, petroleum products, natural gas and coal (bulk PET, NG, COAL): coal, reported by United States (2019-2025) · medium · source
        26. EIA US imports and exports by partner country, petroleum products, natural gas and coal (bulk PET, NG, COAL): LNG, reported by United States (2019-2025) · medium · source
        27. EIA US imports and exports by partner country, petroleum products, natural gas and coal (bulk PET, NG, COAL): oil products, reported by United States (2019-2025) · medium · source
        28. Ministry of Finance Japan, Trade Statistics: coal, reported by Japan (2019-2025) · high · source
        29. Ministry of Finance Japan, Trade Statistics: crude oil, reported by Japan (2019-2025) · medium · source
        30. Ministry of Finance Japan, Trade Statistics: LNG, reported by Japan (2019-2025) · medium · source
        31. Ministry of Finance Japan, Trade Statistics: oil products, reported by Japan (2019-2025) · medium · source
        32. KNOC domestic crude oil imports by country (data.go.kr file 15054606): crude oil, reported by South Korea (2019-2025) · high · source
        33. Statistics Canada (CIMT), Canada's trade: oil products, reported by Canada (2019-2025) · medium · source
        34. Eurostat (Comext), EU trade in goods: wheat, reported by Germany (2019-2025) · high · source
        35. Eurostat (Comext), EU trade in goods: rice, reported by Germany (2019-2025) · high · source
        36. Eurostat (Comext), EU trade in goods: urea and nitrogen fertilisers, reported by Germany (2019-2025) · high · source
        37. Eurostat (Comext), EU trade in goods: ammonia, reported by Germany (2019-2025) · high · source
        38. Eurostat (Comext), EU trade in goods: phosphates, reported by Germany (2019-2025) · high · source
        39. Eurostat (Comext), EU trade in goods: sulphur, reported by Germany (2019-2025) · high · source
        40. Eurostat (Comext), EU trade in goods: rare gases incl. helium (HS 2804.29), reported by Germany (2019-2025) · high · source
        41. Eurostat (Comext), EU trade in goods: methanol, reported by Germany (2019-2025) · high · source
        42. Eurostat (Comext), EU trade in goods: polyethylene and polypropylene, reported by Germany (2019-2025) · high · source
        43. Eurostat (Comext), EU trade in goods: aluminium, reported by Germany (2019-2025) · high · source
        44. Eurostat (Comext), EU trade in goods: refined fuels, reported by European Union (27) (2019-2025) · high · source
        45. Eurostat (Comext), EU trade in goods: rice, reported by European Union (27) (2019-2025) · high · source
        46. Eurostat (Comext), EU trade in goods: urea and nitrogen fertilisers, reported by European Union (27) (2019-2025) · high · source
        47. Eurostat (Comext), EU trade in goods: ammonia, reported by European Union (27) (2019-2025) · high · source
        48. Eurostat (Comext), EU trade in goods: phosphates, reported by European Union (27) (2019-2025) · high · source
        49. Eurostat (Comext), EU trade in goods: sulphur, reported by European Union (27) (2019-2025) · high · source
        50. Eurostat (Comext), EU trade in goods: rare gases incl. helium (HS 2804.29), reported by European Union (27) (2019-2025) · high · source
        51. Eurostat (Comext), EU trade in goods: polyethylene and polypropylene, reported by European Union (27) (2019-2025) · high · source
        52. Eurostat (Comext), EU trade in goods: aluminium, reported by European Union (27) (2019-2025) · high · source
        53. Eurostat (Comext), EU trade in goods: refined fuels, reported by France (2019-2025) · high · source
        54. Eurostat (Comext), EU trade in goods: wheat, reported by France (2019-2025) · high · source
        55. Eurostat (Comext), EU trade in goods: rice, reported by France (2019-2025) · high · source
        56. Eurostat (Comext), EU trade in goods: urea and nitrogen fertilisers, reported by France (2019-2025) · high · source
        57. Eurostat (Comext), EU trade in goods: phosphates, reported by France (2019-2025) · high · source
        58. Eurostat (Comext), EU trade in goods: sulphur, reported by France (2019-2025) · high · source
        59. Eurostat (Comext), EU trade in goods: rare gases incl. helium (HS 2804.29), reported by France (2019-2025) · high · source
        60. Eurostat (Comext), EU trade in goods: polyethylene and polypropylene, reported by France (2019-2025) · high · source
        61. Eurostat (Comext), EU trade in goods: aluminium, reported by France (2019-2025) · high · source
        62. Ministry of Finance Japan, Trade Statistics: LPG, reported by Japan (2019-2025) · high · source
        63. Ministry of Finance Japan, Trade Statistics: maize, reported by Japan (2019-2025) · high · source
        64. Ministry of Finance Japan, Trade Statistics: rice, reported by Japan (2019-2025) · high · source
        65. Ministry of Finance Japan, Trade Statistics: urea and nitrogen fertilisers, reported by Japan (2019-2025) · high · source
        66. Ministry of Finance Japan, Trade Statistics: phosphates, reported by Japan (2019-2025) · high · source
        67. Ministry of Finance Japan, Trade Statistics: rare gases incl. helium (HS 2804.29), reported by Japan (2019-2025) · high · source
        68. Ministry of Finance Japan, Trade Statistics: methanol, reported by Japan (2019-2025) · high · source
        69. Ministry of Finance Japan, Trade Statistics: polyethylene and polypropylene, reported by Japan (2019-2025) · high · source
        70. Ministry of Finance Japan, Trade Statistics: aluminium, reported by Japan (2019-2025) · high · source
        71. Statistics Canada (CIMT), Canada's trade: wheat, reported by Canada (2019-2025) · high · source
        72. Statistics Canada (CIMT), Canada's trade: rice, reported by Canada (2019-2025) · high · source
        73. Statistics Canada (CIMT), Canada's trade: urea and nitrogen fertilisers, reported by Canada (2019-2025) · high · source
        74. Statistics Canada (CIMT), Canada's trade: sulphur, reported by Canada (2019-2025) · high · source
        75. Statistics Canada (CIMT), Canada's trade: polyethylene and polypropylene, reported by Canada (2019-2025) · high · source
        76. Statistics Canada (CIMT), Canada's trade: aluminium, reported by Canada (2019-2025) · high · source
        77. Joint War Committee (LMA), listed areas circular JWLA-035 (Sep 2026) (2026-09) · high · source
        78. gCaptain (Reuters), Singapore port congestion (late May 2024) (2024-05 (late)) · medium · source
        79. Baird Maritime: 132 incidents of piracy and armed robbery on ships in Asia reported in 2025 (ReCAAP ISC Annual Report 2025) (2025) · high · source
        80. ReCAAP ISC Annual Report 2024 (2024) · high · source
        81. Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore: Bunker Sales Breakdown, Monthly (data.gov.sg), March 2026; dataset updated 21 Oct 2026 (about 4.8 Mt; +6.7% on a year earlier) · medium · source
        82. Vietnam MOIT, Singapore vessel arrivals (Apr 2026) (2026-04) · low · source
        83. EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, Oct 2026, Table 4a (SPR net withdrawals) (2026-Q2) · high · source
        84. Bernama: Strait of Malacca keeps top spot as world's largest oil transit chokepoint (3 Apr 2026), citing EIA (1H25) · medium · source
        85. Bernama: Strait of Malacca keeps top spot as world's largest oil transit chokepoint (3 Apr 2026), citing EIA (1H25) · medium · source
        86. RSIS Commentary 024/2012: Maritime Highways of Southeast Asia: Alternative Straits? (10 Feb 2012) (standing (2012)) · medium · source
        87. RSIS Commentary 024/2012: Maritime Highways of Southeast Asia: Alternative Straits? (10 Feb 2012) (standing (2012)) · medium · source
        88. RSIS Commentary 024/2012: Maritime Highways of Southeast Asia: Alternative Straits? (10 Feb 2012) (standing (2012)) · medium · source
        89. RSIS Commentary 024/2012: Maritime Highways of Southeast Asia: Alternative Straits? (10 Feb 2012) (standing (2012)) · medium · source
        90. Business Insurance: Strait of Malacca off high-risk list (13 Aug 2006) (2005-06) · medium · source
        91. Business Insurance: Strait of Malacca off high-risk list (13 Aug 2006) (2006-08) · medium · source
        92. IEA news: IEA confirms member country contributions to collective action to release oil stocks in response to Middle East disruptions (19 Mar 2026) (2026-03-11/) · high · source
        93. Oil & Gas Journal: IEA's emergency reserve release slows significantly (17 Aug 2026), reporting the IEA Oil Market Report Aug 2026 (2026-05) · low · source
        94. IEA Oil Market Report - May 2026 (2026-03/2026-04) · high · source
        95. IEA Oil Market Report - May 2026 (2026-02/2026-04) · high · source
        96. IEA Oil Market Report - May 2026 (2026-02/2026-04) · high · source
        97. IEA: Japan Oil Security Policy (18 Aug 2022) (2022-08) · high · source
        98. METI: Reduction of the Private Oil Stockpiling Obligation and Release of National Crude Oil Stockpiles (16 Mar 2026) (2026-03-16/2026-07-15) · high · source
        99. METI: Release of National Crude Oil Stockpiles (24 Mar 2026) (2026-03-26/) · high · source
        100. METI: Second Release of National Crude Oil Stockpiles (24 Apr 2026) (2026-05-01/) · high · source
        101. Derived from ANRE (METI) Current Status of Petroleum Stockpiles, end-Mar and end-Apr 2026 (published May and Jun 2026), METI release notices (24 Mar, 24 Apr 2026) and the IEA Asia Oceania May draw (via OGJ, 17 Aug 2026) (2026-03-26/2026-05-31) · low · source
        102. S&P Global Platts via Hellenic Shipping News: South Korea to release record 22.46 million barrels of oil reserves in emergency action (12 Mar 2026) (2026-03-12/) · medium · source
        103. Korea JoongAng Daily: Korea to deploy 20 million barrels of Middle East crude through swap (31 Mar 2026) (2026-04/2026-05) · medium · source
        104. S&P Global Platts: South Korea eases refiners' crude stockpiling mandate under IEA plan (28 May 2026) (2026-05-29/) · medium · source
        105. Derived from the MOTIR 22.46 mb pledge (Mar 2026) and the swap plan (20 mb over Apr-May 2026) (2026-03/2026-06) · low · source
        106. EIA Today in Energy: China, the United States, and Japan hold most strategic oil inventories in 2025 (20 Apr 2026) (2025) · high · source
        107. Reuters (via Baird Maritime), Saudi crude loading moved to the Red Sea coast (3 Mar 2026) (2026-02-28/2026-03-03) · medium · source
        108. ANRE (METI): Sekiyu bichiku no genkyo (Current Status of Petroleum Stockpiles), June 2026 (end-April data) and May 2026 (end-March data) (2026-04) · high · source
        109. ANRE (METI): Sekiyu bichiku no genkyo, April 2026 (end-Feb data) and May 2026 (end-March data) (2026-03) · high · source
        110. Asia Economy: government to ease refiners' stockpiling requirement (28 May 2026) (2026-05-28) · medium · source

        IEA news releases and Oil Market Report (May 2026): CC BY 4.0 for IEA’s own work. Source: Korea National Oil Corporation (KNOC), crude oil imports by country, via the Korean public data portal (data.go.kr), edited by Strature.

        Naming a bank, broker or firm whose study or figure is cited is not a view on it or its securities. Named parties and readers may send corrections to corrections@strature.net.

        Map: Natural Earth, with Crimea drawn as part of Ukraine. Boundaries as drawn by the source; no position on any dispute is implied. Country and territory names follow common usage and imply no position on sovereignty. We say "the Gulf" for the sea also called the Persian Gulf or the Arabian Gulf. Routes are modelled, not ship tracks; not for navigation. No data provider endorses Strature or this page, and none is affiliated with us.

        Figures from EIA built on Vortexa data are EIA analysis of Vortexa data, credited to both. Terms

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