Countries in this scenario
Taiwan · China: dependency profile · Japan: dependency profile · South Korea: dependency profile
Which straits carry each one’s supply, and how each scenario reaches it.
Transit through the Taiwan Strait stops for 7 days
Follow Transit through the Taiwan Strait stops for 7 daysAlerts when its risks move. Free.
Transits stop, for example during a declared exercise zone; ships route east of Taiwan and arrive a few days late.
In short No oil flow on file crosses the Taiwan Strait, so no volumes are shown; ships routed east of Taiwan add up to 3 days. Illustrative arithmetic on stated assumptions; not a forecast; not advice.
This page answers: What happens to shipping if transit through the Taiwan Strait stops?
Using this page
- Switch the map between Strait closed and Normal routing.
- See what uses the strait and what goes round it.
- Read who is hit, and Taiwan's own stock days.
Part of Taiwan Strait
Taiwan Straitclosed, day 0 to 7Not a forecast
No flow on file crosses the strait. The Strature network has 1,322 trade flows; none is routed through the Taiwan Strait, and no published figure gives the oil, gas, coal or ore that crosses it. So the numbers below stay empty rather than guessed.
Stopped
None on file
no flow through the strait in the route model
Arrives late
None on file
the detour adds up to 3 days
Lost
None on file
late is never counted as lost
Closure + recovery, days 0–30: none on file
Closure only, days 0–7: none on file
Due after the period (departs inside it, arrives after it): none on file
Headline = the sum of the country rows: none on file
Illustrative arithmetic on stated assumptions; not a forecast; not advice. It does not say whether, when or for how long a strait will close. Figures as of April 2026; each figure shows its own period. Terms
If a ship re-routes: + up to 3 days round the east of Taiwan, after 0–2 days of re-planning (Strature assumption, no cited figure on file yet). The strait reopens on day 7; the result counts to day 30.
What this means
Approved readingNo oil flow on file crosses the Taiwan Strait in the route model, so this page shows no volumes rather than a guess. Ships that route east of Taiwan add up to 3 days, a brokers' estimate from August 2022. Flows through the strait by good remain a data gap. Illustrative arithmetic, not a forecast.
Approved reading for the card's case: Taiwan Strait disruption, 7 days.
Where ships go instead
SchematicThe strait runs between Taiwan and mainland China. When it is closed to transit, ships that would use it can sail round the east of Taiwan. Many large ships already do.
Lines are schematic, drawn by Strature from the cited routing facts below: not ship tracks, not modelled flows, region level only, not for navigation. No exercise zone or insurers' listed area is drawn. Moving dots on desktop only.
What uses the strait, and what goes round it
Cited factsStrature has no figure on file for the oil, gas, coal or ore that crosses the strait. What is on file is where ships go.
Who is hit
Strature arithmeticWho would lose supply in this case, on time, late or lost? The result counts days 0 to 30 (closure plus 23 days after reopening), with the closure-only part beside it.
| Country | Stopped | Arrives late (+days) | Lost |
|---|---|---|---|
| No country row: no flow on file crosses the Taiwan Strait in the route model (1,322 flows in the network, 0 through the strait). | |||
| Country pages: Japan · South Korea · China | |||
| Due after the period: departs inside it, would arrive after it (no country row) | none | none | none |
| Headline: sum of the country rows, days 0–30 | none | none | none |
| Closure only, days 0–7 | none | none | none |
The closure and the period counted, on one day axis
strait closedre-planning, 0–2 daysperiod counted after reopening
Taiwan's own stock days
Cited, 2026How many days of fuel Taiwan held, as reported in March and April 2026. Context only: in this case the model does not stop shipments to Taiwan's ports, and the card draws no stocks.
A larger case: what blockade studies found
Published studyA blockade of Taiwan is a different and much larger case than this one: in these studies, shipments to Taiwan itself stop for weeks to a year. Strature has not modelled it. Each line is one dated, named result, not a Strature estimate.
Prices: what published studies found
Not enough open dataInsurance: what has been observed
ObservedWar-risk premiums are shown as a share of hull value, as published. For the Taiwan Strait, none for 2024–2026 was found. What is on file are dated events, one mark each; no line joins them.
It has happened, briefly
ObservedExercises round Taiwan have declared closed zones for short periods. Dates as reported; the scenario borrows none of them as a prediction.
Assumptions, each with its evidence
What the card uses, and where each figure comes from. A Strature assumption is ours; the evidence beside it is cited.
Things to watch
Official statistics and country-level events that show whether this case is starting or ending.
Linked forecasts
Forecast registerQuestions in Strature's forecast register on related events. No probability from them is carried into this scenario.
What this leaves out, method and sources
Method details: all sources used on this page
- AJOT (Bloomberg), detours east of Taiwan (Aug 2022) · Aug 2022 · medium confidence · Single fact quoted with credit. · Open the source
- Air Freight News (Bloomberg), routing of tankers round Taiwan (3 Aug 2022) · Aug 2022 · low confidence · Single fact quoted with credit. · Open the source
- Business Insurance (Reuters), insurers tighten Taiwan cover (10 Aug 2023) · 10 Aug 2023 · medium confidence · Single fact quoted with credit. · Open the source
- CSIS, report launch transcript on a blockade wargame (31 Jul 2025) · 2025 (stated) · low confidence · Single fact quoted with credit. · Open the source
- CSIS, report launch transcript on a blockade wargame (31 Jul 2025) · 2025 (wargame) · medium confidence · Single fact quoted with credit. · Open the source
- EIA Today in Energy: Almost 40% of global LNG trade moves through the South China Sea (2 Nov 2017) · 2016 · medium confidence · Public domain, US federal work (credit EIA). · Open the source
- Foreign Policy, shipping rates and the Taiwan Strait (8 Aug 2022) · 7 Aug 2022 · medium confidence · Single fact quoted with credit. · Open the source
- Global News (AP), exercises around Taiwan, day two (30 Dec 2025) · 30 Dec 2025 · medium confidence · Single fact quoted with credit. · Open the source
- Insurance Journal (Bloomberg Economics), cost estimates for a Taiwan blockade (11 Jan 2024) · 2024 study · medium confidence · Single fact quoted with credit. · Open the source
- Insurance Journal (Bloomberg Economics), cost estimates for a Taiwan blockade (11 Jan 2024) · 2024 study · medium confidence · Single fact quoted with credit. · Open the source
- LNG Prime: Taiwan boosts LNG imports in 2025 (12 Jan 2026), citing the Directorate General of Customs · 2025 (preliminary) · medium confidence · Single fact quoted with credit. · Open the source
- Malay Mail, exercises around Taiwan, day two (30 Dec 2025) · 29 Dec to 30 Dec 2025 · medium confidence · Single fact quoted with credit. · Open the source
- RTP (Lusa, citing CNA), Taiwan oil purchases from the US (Apr 2026) · 22 Apr 2026 · medium confidence · Single fact quoted with credit. · Open the source
- Reuters via Free Malaysia Today: China's 'Strait Thunder' drills around Taiwan continue (2 Apr 2025) · 1 Apr to 2 Apr 2025 · medium confidence · Single fact quoted with credit. · Open the source
- Rhodium Group, economic disruptions from a Taiwan conflict (14 Dec 2022) · 2022 study · medium confidence · Single fact quoted with credit. · Open the source
- Strature search of central banks, IEA, EIA, think tanks and banks (10 Oct 2026) · 10 Oct 2026 · search record · Strature search record
- TCAN 2050: Navigating geopolitical turbulence with Taiwan's energy transition policy (21 May 2025), Table 1 from MOEA Energy Administration · 2024 · high confidence · Single fact quoted with credit. · Open the source
- TCAN 2050: Navigating geopolitical turbulence with Taiwan's energy transition policy (21 May 2025), Table 1 from MOEA Energy Administration · 2024 · high confidence · Single fact quoted with credit. · Open the source
- TCAN 2050: Navigating geopolitical turbulence with Taiwan's energy transition policy (21 May 2025), Table 1 from MOEA Energy Administration · 2024 · high confidence · Single fact quoted with credit. · Open the source
- Taipei Times: Taiwan's LNG supply largely secured through May, says minister (26 Mar 2026) · 28 Feb to 25 Mar 2026 · medium confidence · Single fact quoted with credit. · Open the source
- Taipei Times: Taiwan's LNG supply largely secured through May, says minister (26 Mar 2026) · Mar 2026 · high confidence · Single fact quoted with credit. · Open the source
- Taipei Times: Taiwan's LNG supply largely secured through May, says minister (26 Mar 2026) · end-2027 · medium confidence · Single fact quoted with credit. · Open the source
- Taipei Times: Taiwan's LNG supply largely secured through May, says minister (26 Mar 2026) · Mar 2026 · medium confidence · Single fact quoted with credit. · Open the source
- Taipei Times: Taiwan's LNG supply largely secured through May, says minister (26 Mar 2026) · Mar 2026 · medium confidence · Single fact quoted with credit. · Open the source
- Taiwan News, CSIS wargame results on energy stocks (Jul/Aug 2025) · 2025 (wargame, 26 iterations) · low confidence · Single fact quoted with credit. · Open the source
- The Maritime Executive, Taiwan's ship insurance rule for port entry (11 Sep 2025) · 15 Oct 2025 · high confidence · Single fact quoted with credit. · Open the source
- The Maritime Executive, Taiwan's ship insurance rule for port entry (11 Sep 2025) · Sep 2025 · medium confidence · Single fact quoted with credit. · Open the source
- The Strategist (ASPI), quoting the CSIS wargame authors on Taiwan's energy stocks (16 Mar 2026) · 2025 (wargame) · low confidence · Single fact quoted with credit. · Open the source
- The Strategist (ASPI), quoting the CSIS wargame authors on Taiwan's energy stocks (16 Mar 2026) · 2025 (wargame) · low confidence · Single fact quoted with credit. · Open the source
- WorldPorts (IAPH), Bloomberg count of container ships in the Taiwan Strait (2 Aug 2022) · Jan to Jul 2022 · low confidence · Single fact quoted with credit. · Open the source
- WorldPorts (IAPH), Bloomberg count of container ships in the Taiwan Strait (2 Aug 2022) · Jan to Jul 2022 · low confidence · Single fact quoted with credit. · Open the source
- Re-planning before the detour: Short re-planning for a short closure: 0-2 days. Strature assumption, no cited figure on file yet. (Strature assumption, low)
- Australian coal to North-east Asia passes east of Taiwan, like Australian LNG. Strature assumption, low; no cited figure on file yet (page text only).
Naming a bank, broker or firm whose study or figure is cited is not a view on it or its securities. Named parties and readers may send corrections to corrections@strature.net.
Map: Natural Earth, with Crimea drawn as part of Ukraine. Boundaries as drawn by the source; no position on any dispute is implied. Country and territory names follow common usage and imply no position on sovereignty. We say "the Gulf" for the sea also called the Persian Gulf or the Arabian Gulf. Routes are modelled, not ship tracks; not for navigation. No data provider endorses Strature or this page, and none is affiliated with us.
Source
{c} confidence
Illustrative arithmetic on stated assumptions; not a forecast; not advice. It does not say whether, when or for how long a strait will close. Figures as of {as_of}; each figure shows its own period.
Terms
· days 0–{d}
closed, day 0 to {d}
Transits stop, for example during a declared exercise zone; ships route east of Taiwan and arrive a few days late.
No flow on file crosses the strait. The Strature network has {edges_total} trade flows; none is routed through the Taiwan Strait, and no published figure gives the oil, gas, coal or ore that crosses it.{sb} So the numbers below stay empty rather than guessed.
None on file
Stopped
no flow through the strait in the route model
Arrives late
the detour adds up to {n} days{sb}
Lost
late is never counted as lost
Closure + recovery, days 0–{h}: none on file
Closure only, days 0–{d}: none on file
Due after the period (departs inside it, arrives after it): none on file
Headline = the sum of the country rows: none on file
If a ship re-routes:
+ up to {n} days
round the east of Taiwan{sb}, after
0–2 days
of re-planning (Strature assumption, no cited figure on file yet{sb}). The strait reopens on day {d}; the result counts to day {h}.
Approved reading for the card's case: Taiwan Strait disruption, 7 days.
Taiwan
China
Japan
South Korea
Philippines
South China Sea
East China Sea
Philippine Sea
Taiwan Strait
east of Taiwan
Large tankers,
Australian LNG:
east of the Philippines
and Taiwan
Ryukyu chain:
about {r}% of
South Korea's shipping
Container ships
through the strait
{bar}of the world's 5,400 container ships used the strait in the first seven months of 2022 (a count of ships, not of cargo).{sb} {conf}
The largest container ships
{bar}of the largest tenth of the container fleet used it in the same months.{sb} {conf}
Large oil tankers
usually
Larger tankers normally sail east of Taiwan, not through the strait (Aug 2022).{sb} {conf}
South Korea's shipping
{bar}passes the Ryukyu chain, east of Taiwan, as a speaker said at CSIS's report launch (31 Jul 2025).{sb} {conf}
Australian LNG
mostly east of Taiwan
via the South China Sea
{bar}of Australia's LNG exports crossed the South China Sea in 2016; EIA puts the rest east of the Philippines and Taiwan.{sb} {conf}
Australian coal
east of Taiwan (assumed)
no figure
No cited routing figure for coal is on file. This page assumes it sails the same way as Australian LNG: a Strature assumption, low confidence, no cited figure on file yet.{sb}
Which traffic would this closure touch most?
Reading the cited routing facts together: container ships, and short-sea and coastal ships, which use the strait as their usual lane. Large tankers, Australian LNG and most of South Korea's shipping already pass east of Taiwan. No volume can be put on either group, because no figure for the goods crossing the strait is on file.
Written from the cited figures by fixed rules.
Who would lose supply in this case, on time, late or lost? The result counts days 0 to {h} (closure plus {v} days after reopening), with the closure-only part beside it.
Country
Arrives late (+days)
No country row: no flow on file crosses the Taiwan Strait in the route model ({edges_total} flows in the network, 0 through the strait).
Due after the period: departs inside it, would arrive after it (no country row)
none
Headline: sum of the country rows, days 0–{h}
Closure only, days 0–{d}
How late would a re-routed ship be?
The card adds up to {n} days for the route east of Taiwan{sb} and 0–2 days of re-planning{sb2}. In this case there is no flow on file to apply them to, so nothing is shown as late. Late cargo is never added to lost, and no cargo waits at port: the card has no waiting rule.
Country pages: {join}
{d} days
to day {hz}
days from the start of the closure · no flow on file to place on these days
Mar 2026
legal floor
planned by end-2027
legal minimum
Apr 2026
more than
about
strategic reserves about {v2} days ({p2})
days ({p}){v}
closure: {d} days
{num}of energy supply imported (2024){sb}
{num}of electricity from LNG (2024){sb}
{num}of electricity from coal (2024){sb}
{num} Mt
LNG imported (2025, preliminary){sb}
longer than the closure
the same as the closure
at least partly shorter than the closure
shorter than the closure
Is each cited stock longer than a {d}-day closure?
a figure below the closure length
LNG: more than {v} days (Mar 2026), {v2}.{sb}
Coal: about {v} days (Mar 2026), {cmp}.{sb}
Oil: about {v} days of stock (Mar 2026); strategic reserves about {v2} days (Apr 2026); {cmp}.{sb}
Stock days are as reported; they are not drawn down by the model in this case.
CSIS wargame, 2025 (26 runs), as reported
If nothing reached Taiwan, its gas ran out in about {num} days, coal in about {c} weeks and oil in about {o} weeks.
CSIS wargame, 2025, report launch
With nothing getting through, power generation fell to about {num}% of normal by weeks 8–9.
Bloomberg Economics, January 2024
A year-long blockade: Taiwan's GDP {replace}% and world GDP {replace2}% in the first year.
Rhodium Group, December 2022
Well over USD {t} trillion a year of economic activity exposed to a blockade. Rhodium says this is exposure, not an estimate of lost output.
No published estimate of energy prices for a closure of the Taiwan Strait, or for a blockade of Taiwan, was found in a search of central banks, the IEA, the EIA, think tanks and banks (10 Oct 2026).{sb} Strature computes no price. The economic figures in the section above are study results for a much larger case.
Not listed
During the August 2022 exercises, insurers did not add the waters round Taiwan to their war-risk listed areas.
Cover tightened
Lloyd's insurers tightened cover for Taiwan risks; no premium figures were published.
96.7% qualify
When the port insurance rule was announced, 96.7% of ships calling at Taiwan already qualified.
Rule in force
last observed: 15 Oct 2025
shaded: no premium found, 2024–2026
No listed area is drawn
Taiwan requires ships entering its ports to carry P&I insurance from an insurer rated BBB or better.
Insurers' war-risk listed areas are described in text with their circular and date, never drawn on maps. No 2024–2026 war-risk premium for the strait was found.
Aug 2022
During exercises round Taiwan, ships routed round the east of the island; brokers put the extra time at up to {n} days.{sb} {conf}
1–2 Apr 2025
Large exercises by China's armed forces round Taiwan.{sb} {conf}
29–30 Dec 2025
Exercises round Taiwan, including a rehearsal of closing its main ports, with {num} declared zones.{sb} {conf}
Detour east of Taiwan
cited, medium confidence
Up to {v} extra days. The card uses the upper end of the brokers' estimate.
Evidence: brokers' estimate via Bloomberg, Aug 2022{sb}.
Re-planning before the detour
–{high} days of short re-planning for a short closure.
Evidence: {evidence}{sb}
Australian coal routing
Strature assumption, low
Coal from Australia to North-east Asia is taken to pass east of Taiwan, like Australian LNG. It is used only in the words of this page, not in the arithmetic.
Evidence: no cited figure on file yet; the nearest cited fact is the LNG route{sb}.
Flows through the strait
data gap
None on file. The Taiwan Strait is not a passage in the route model, so the engine finds no flow to stop, delay or lose.
Evidence: no published figure by good for 2023–2026 was found; the only tonnage figures found rest on a trade database Strature may not republish, so they are not used.
Stocks
card choice
Stocks are off on this card: a short closure that stops no flow on file draws no stock. Taiwan's own stock days are shown above as cited context.
Evidence: Taiwan's economy minister (March 2026) and Portuguese broadcaster RTP, citing Taiwan's Central News Agency (April 2026){sb}.
Navigation notices for the strait
Maritime safety notices from the authorities on both sides of the strait that declare exercise or closed zones, with their dates.
Taiwan's reported stock days
Statements by Taiwan's Ministry of Economic Affairs on LNG, coal and oil stocks, against the legal floors (LNG {lng} days, coal {coal}, oil {oil}).{sb}
Insurers' listed areas
Whether a Joint War Committee circular adds the waters round Taiwan; none did in August 2022.{sb}
Taiwan's monthly trade statistics
Ministry of Finance export and import figures, by destination, as published each month.
Rule: the two register questions closest to this page's question, a stop to transit through the strait by exercises or a declared zone.
a larger case than this page
{id} · {future} · {pc}, {fc_label} · resolves by {resolves_by}{v}
All {length} questions of the set:
forecast register
The goods that cross the strait. No figure for crude, LNG, coal or ore through it for 2023–2026 is on file, so nothing is counted.
Containers by cargo. The container figures count ships (2022), not boxes or their value.
Short-sea and coastal traffic across and along the strait.
Shipments to Taiwan's own ports. A blockade of Taiwan is a different, larger case; published results for it are cited above, not modelled.
Air freight, which does not use the strait.
Ships and crews for the detour: assumed available.
Strature's scenario model ran this case at 7, 30, 90 and 180 days on its full network of {edges_total} trade flows before the page was built: 0 warnings, 0 country rows, 0 flows. Every result on this page is precomputed. The route model has no passage through the strait yet. CSIS strait figures are not used: they rest on a trade database we may not republish.
Figures as of {as_of}.
search record
confidence
Open the source
Re-planning before the detour: {label} ({chip})
Australian coal to North-east Asia passes east of Taiwan, like Australian LNG. Strature assumption, low; no cited figure on file yet (page text only).
Strature assumption
{label}
Confidence: low.
Strature assumption
Australian coal to North-east Asia passes east of Taiwan, like Australian LNG. Low confidence; no cited figure on file yet.
· {conf} confidence
Close
Every result is precomputed and checked before the page is built. At 7 and 30 days: {countries} country rows, {edges} flows, {v} warnings.
Map could not be drawn: {message}
The page could not start: {message}
What next
Take this scenario further.
The network map
Suppliers, straits and buyers on one map: who depends on which strait, good by good.
Strature Exposure demos
What can reach one company, where and when: four companies, read from public sources.
Your company
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