KQ-01 · S-001 · resolves by 20 Nov 2026
Will US or Israeli forces strike Iran between 22 August and 20 November 2026?
A renewed US or Israeli strike on Iran, 22 Aug-20 Nov 2026 · 61% · likely · moderate confidence
Strature Briefs · Key questions
Key questions
Geopolitics and conflict 5
KQ-07 · C-002 · resolves by 18 Jul 2028
Which of six registered scenarios describes Iran on 18 July 2028, and does any single one become likely?
Highest of the registered outcomes: Guard-Managed Attrition · 13.74% · very unlikely · moderate confidence
KQ-18 · C-006 · resolves by 30 Sep 2027
By 30 September 2027, will US armed forces take a military action on Canadian territory, or in waters Canada claims, without Canada's consent?
US military action against Canada - the 'extreme tail risk' the Prime Minister says Canada has prepared for · 2% · almost no chance · confidence not registered
KQ-23 · C-005 · resolves by 30 Jun 2027
Between 2 Oct 2026 and 30 Jun 2027, does the PLA stage a named joint exercise around Taiwan, do China and the Philippines come to an armed clash, or does it go further?
Highest of the registered outcomes: Taiwan and the Philippines: no named drill and no clash · 47% · roughly even chance · confidence not registered
KQ-32 · C-005 · resolves by 30 Jun 2027
Between 9 Oct 2026 and 30 Jun 2027, do PRC authorities impose inspections, a quarantine or a closure on traffic to at least one Taiwan port, or do PLA forces attack Taiwan-held territory or forces?
Taiwan to mid-2027: China blockades, quarantines or attacks · 7% · very unlikely · confidence not registered
Trade, tariffs and sanctions 18
KQ-02 · Q-022 · resolves by 31 Dec 2026
By 31 December 2026, does the 50% duty on listed Canadian goods end, ease or last, and if it lasts, what happens to Canada's sales to the US on those lines?
Highest of the registered outcomes: The duty lasts, US-bound sales cut · 28% · unlikely · confidence not registered
KQ-03 · Q-027 · resolves by 31 Dec 2026
By 31 December 2026, does an EU-Canada association track open, how many of the six drafted summit deals land, and does the EU's share of Canada's goods exports stay above its 2025 level?
Highest of the registered outcomes: A partial package, and the EU share holds above 2025 · 47% · roughly even chance · confidence not registered
KQ-08 · C-006 · resolves by 30 Sep 2027
On 30 September 2027, where does the North American trade agreement stand: rolling on unchanged, escalating, renewed, abandoned by the US, or something else?
Highest of the registered outcomes: Escalation short of withdrawal - tit-for-tat, more bans, 50% auto tariffs from January, and a progressive shrinking of tariff-free trade · 51% · roughly even chance · confidence not registered
KQ-10 · C-006 · resolves by 1 Jan 2027
On 1 January 2027, with no renewal announced, does China's pre-relief tariff apply again to Canadian peas, canola meal or seafood?
China's tariff relief on Canadian peas, canola meal and seafood lapses at the end of 2026 · 30% · unlikely · confidence not registered
KQ-11 · C-006 · resolves by 30 Sep 2027
By 30 September 2027, will a US proclamation adding a tariff of 50% or more on Canadian-made passenger vehicles be in force?
The threatened 50% US tariff on Canadian vehicles takes effect · 40% · unlikely · confidence not registered
KQ-12 · C-006 · resolves by 30 Sep 2027
By 30 September 2027, will USTR open a Section 301 investigation of Canada's Online Streaming Act or its contribution regime?
Washington opens a Section 301 investigation of Canada's Online Streaming Act · 20% · unlikely · confidence not registered
KQ-13 · C-006 · resolves by 30 Sep 2027
By 30 September 2027, will a published US-Canada arrangement lift the Section 338 tariffs and bans on Canadian goods?
The trade war is sorted out and proves temporary - talks resume and the new tariffs fall · 25% · unlikely · confidence not registered
KQ-14 · C-006 · resolves by 30 Sep 2027
On 30 September 2027, will US tariffs on Canadian goods still be above their 2024 level, with neither government having restored the pre-2025 terms?
A lasting break: the old lockstep does not return - US tariffs on Canadian goods above their 2024 level on 30 Sep 2027, re-scored after 20 Jan 2029 · 92% · very likely · confidence not registered
KQ-15 · C-006 · resolves by 30 Sep 2027
By 30 September 2027, will a US court rule that the Section 338 tariffs on Canadian goods exceed the statute, in whole or in part, with the ruling not stayed?
The Section 338 tariffs are struck down or narrowed in a US court · 12% · very unlikely · confidence not registered
KQ-16 · C-006 · resolves by 30 Sep 2027
By 30 September 2027, will a published US-Canada arrangement commit Canada to match US tariffs on third countries in named sectors?
Fortress North America: Canada accepts aligning its outside tariffs with US policy as the price of restored access · 7% · very unlikely · confidence not registered
KQ-19 · C-006 · resolves by 31 Dec 2027
Will Canada's real GDP fall in two consecutive quarters at any point up to the fourth quarter of 2027, on Statistics Canada's first release?
Canada falls into recession · 25% · unlikely · confidence not registered
KQ-21 · C-005 · resolves by 10 Jan 2027
On 10 Jan 2027, are China's suspension of its October-2025 export controls and the US suspension of the Affiliates Rule both still in effect, and for how long: a short roll-over, a longer settlement, or have both lapsed?
Highest of the registered outcomes: Trade clocks: rolled on a short clock · 63% · likely · confidence not registered
KQ-22 · C-005 · resolves by 31 Dec 2026
Does China's 2026 goods surplus pass the 2025 record, and does the US or the EU put a new broad trade-defence measure on Chinese goods by 31 Dec 2026?
Highest of the registered outcomes: 2026 surplus: past the record, without a new US or EU measure · 80% · very likely · confidence not registered
KQ-25 · C-005 · resolves by 10 Jan 2027
By 10 Jan 2027, does a US tariff increase on all or substantially all Chinese goods, above the rate in force on 2 Oct 2026, take effect?
Risk: The US raises tariffs on Chinese goods generally above the truce level · 10% · very unlikely · confidence not registered
KQ-29 · C-005 · resolves by 10 Jan 2027
On 10 Jan 2027, does the truce run on free, at a price in China's exports or the yuan, or has it lapsed or been hit by a broad US or EU measure?
Highest of the registered outcomes: The truce past 10 Jan 2027: rolled free · 68% · likely · confidence not registered
KQ-30 · C-005 · resolves by 15 Jun 2027
Are China's January-May 2027 goods exports in US dollars, as first published by customs by 15 Jun 2027, above the same months of 2026?
Highest of the registered outcomes: Exports Jan-May 2027: still above 2026 · 86% · very likely · confidence not registered
KQ-33 · C-005 · resolves by 30 Sep 2029
Between 11 Jan 2027 and 30 Sep 2029, does a US proclamation or Federal Register notice raise the additional tariff on all or substantially all Chinese-origin goods above the rate in force on 10 Jan 2027?
US tariffs, 2027 to Sep 2029: US raises tariff generally · 40% · unlikely · confidence not registered
KQ-35 · C-005 · resolves by 30 Sep 2033
In the World Bank series for China's household consumption share of GDP, read on 30 Sep 2033, are any two consecutive annual values from 2026 to 2031 both above 40.0%?
Household share by 2031: two years above 2015-2024 range · 35% · unlikely · confidence not registered
Supply chains and chokepoints 1
KQ-26 · C-005 · resolves by 10 Jan 2027
By 10 Jan 2027, does China halt rare-earth permanent-magnet export licences to US or EU buyers generally, not only to named entities?
Risk: China halts rare-earth permanent-magnet export licences to US or EU buyers generally · 4% · almost no chance · confidence not registered
Energy and resources 5
KQ-05 · Q-026 · resolves by 31 Dec 2028
By 31 December 2028, how much more large-load grid capacity will Alberta allocate, and will British Columbia repeat its call for demand?
Highest of the registered outcomes: Alberta allocates 1,200-2,400 MW more and BC does not repeat its call · 25% · unlikely · confidence not registered
KQ-09 · C-006 · resolves by 31 Dec 2026
Will the long-form definitive agreements of the Labrador hydro programme still be unsigned on 31 December 2026?
The Labrador hydro programme misses its own date for binding agreements · 60% · likely · confidence not registered
KQ-17 · C-006 · resolves by 30 Sep 2027
Over the twelve months to 30 September 2027, will Canada's share of US crude imports fall while Venezuela's rises?
Venezuelan heavy crude displaces Canadian crude in US refineries · 40% · unlikely · confidence not registered
KQ-20 · C-006 · resolves by 31 Dec 2028
In any month up to 31 December 2028, will Trans Mountain apportion uncommitted (spot) nominations, a sign the line is full?
The one oil route to the West Coast fills: Trans Mountain begins apportioning spot nominations · 20% · unlikely · confidence not registered
KQ-36 · Q-028 · resolves by 30 Jun 2027
Between 14 Oct 2026 and 28 Jun 2027, do the US and Iran agree a text, does the US strike Iran, and does any EIA weekly regular-gasoline print fall below $3.50?
Highest of the registered outcomes: The US strikes Iran, no week below $3.50 · 26.7% · unlikely · confidence not registered
Technology and cyber 0
No key question in this category yet.
Regulation and compliance 2
KQ-04 · Q-021 · resolves by 31 Oct 2027
By 31 October 2027, will a fund we track commit C$1bn or more to a new Canadian build, with or without a government term, and if not, what moves instead?
Highest of the registered outcomes: A build on private contracts only · 27% · unlikely · confidence not registered
KQ-06 · Q-025 · resolves by 26 Jun 2030
By 26 June 2030, how many projects will be listed under the Building Canada Act, and will a section 35 rights-holder have started a court challenge relating to the Act?
Highest of the registered outcomes: 5 or more projects are listed and a s.35 challenge is commenced · 36% · unlikely · confidence not registered
Finance and markets 5
KQ-24 · C-005 · resolves by 31 Dec 2026
Where does the yuan stand against the US dollar at the end of 2026, on the US Federal Reserve's H.10 rate?
Highest of the registered outcomes: Yuan at end-2026: stronger than 6.65 · 50% · roughly even chance · confidence not registered
KQ-27 · C-005 · resolves by 25 Jun 2027
Is the People's Bank of China's January-May 2027 change in household loans, published by 25 Jun 2027, zero or negative, or positive?
Highest of the registered outcomes: Household credit Jan-May 2027: still repaying · 72% · likely · confidence not registered
KQ-28 · C-005 · resolves by 28 Feb 2027
Is combined spending of China's two main budgets in 2026, read from the Ministry of Finance release published by 28 Feb 2027, below 2025's?
Highest of the registered outcomes: Two-budget spending 2026: below 2025 · 82% · very likely · confidence not registered
KQ-31 · C-005 · resolves by 31 Mar 2027
Does the 2027 Government Work Report, published in full by 31 Mar 2027, set a numeric target for the household consumption share of GDP or a new nationwide cash transfer to households?
Highest of the registered outcomes: Work report, March 2027: no turn, no household target · 83% · very likely · confidence not registered
KQ-34 · C-005 · resolves by 31 Mar 2029
By 31 Mar 2029, does the 2029 Government Work Report or the Ministry of Finance's budget report state that the existing stock of hidden local-government debt has been fully cleared?
Hidden local debt by 2029: Beijing declares it fully cleared · 40% · unlikely · confidence not registered
Every forecast in a published brief belongs to one key question. The estimates and the words that decide them are those of the forecast register, never edited. Each probability is our estimate, scored when it resolves. Forecasts are general research on public events and policy; they are not investment, legal or tax advice.