Key question KQ-11 · Trade, tariffs and sanctions
One forecast: the estimate that it happens, and its complement. Our estimate, scored when it resolves.
The threatened 50% US tariff on Canadian vehicles takes effect
40% · unlikely · confidence not registered
F-0167 · Open
It does not happen
60%
The situation when it was sealed (1 Oct 2026). A 50% duty now reaches named Canadian goods whatever their treaty origin, and auto tariffs are threatened from 1 January 2027.
Each point is a sealed register row. There is one sealed estimate for each outcome so far: a new point is added only when we register a new estimate, and the old one stays listed and scored.
| No. | Row | Sealed | Estimate | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | F-0167 | 1 Oct 2026 | 40% | Open |
No reassessment yet.
What the brief says would move the view, quoted from it.
No signpost is published for this question yet.
The brief asks whether the duties widen into autos or narrow in a deal; this is the widening.
The countries our register links to these forecasts, most often linked first.
The registered words that decide each forecast, quoted unchanged.
F-0167
“Happened if, by 30 Sep 2027, a US proclamation imposing an additional tariff of 50% or more on Canadian-origin passenger vehicles is in force.”
Each probability is our estimate, scored when it resolves. Forecasts are general research on public events and policy; they are not investment, legal or tax advice.