12 questions answered in 5 published briefs · Newest release 1 Oct 2026
Geoeconomic · Geopolitical · Geotechnology
The questions our published briefs answer that touch Japan.
“74–196 million barrels could leave Saudi Arabia in six weeks with the shuttle running, but none bought on 25 September was on file to land that soon.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“Korea cut 40 days of average sales to 20 from 29 May, until separately lifted, as reported by The Korea Times and Newspim; no restoring notice was found in searches to 30 September 2026.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Saudi Arabia Affected South Korea
“It has started, but small: in 12 months to July 2026, 11.3 of 96.8 bcm of gas exports and 32.6 of 256.0 million m³ of crude went beyond the US.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“122 export cargo records, June 2025 to July 2026: Korea 46, China 36, Japan 25, Taiwan 10, three others 5.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“For this class the question is reliability, and the measured answer is: demonstrated, small and single-sourced.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“UN Comtrade records China, Japan and Korea as the largest 2025 destinations of Canadian coal and of ores, slag and ash; they are also the three largest destinations of the gas cargoes”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“In Taiwan: Fab 18 (3nm) and Fabs 20 and 22 (2nm), on TSMC's table of 28 Feb 2026.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“2 to 3 points of gross margin early, 3 to 4 points later.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“The ten tails are kept as named ways the picture could break, each with its early sign; the structure of the axes is in the annex.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“Repriced cargo by cargo: by mid-2026 LNG kept under a tenth and crude under a quarter of their late-2025 flow through the Strait, and by 28 September crude, on Kpler's pre-war baseline, was back; products were not.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“On the Kiel Institute's model of a full closure, US welfare falls by 0.07 per cent while losses in South Asia and Africa are 10 to 20 times larger in percentage terms.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“The two largest strategic holders behind the Strait were not part of it. EIA estimates China's strategic stock at 1,492 million barrels in the second quarter of 2026 and India's at 21 million; neither country is an IEA member.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.No question matches the chosen filters.
Each answer is quoted verbatim from the brief. Answers with a register ID are our estimates, scored when they resolve; the others are the brief’s reading of the evidence, not forecasts.
Regions in these questions Asia · East Asia · Europe · Indo-Pacific · Middle East · North America · South Asia · Southeast Asia
ISO 3166-1 name: Japan (JPN). Country and territory names follow common usage and imply no position on sovereignty.
No published brief has Japan as its subject yet; the questions above name it as affected.
Each is our estimate, scored when it resolves. Published briefs only; the full register lists every one.
No registered forecast is attached to these questions yet.
| ID | Forecast | Our estimate | Issued | Resolves by | Status |
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The full brief is supplied to organisations through the request form on the brief’s page: they accept its terms and confirm a work email, and it is free during the introductory period.
Q-023 · Edition 1.0
T-001 · Edition 1.0
X-001 · Edition 1.0
C-003 · Edition 1.0
T-003 · Edition 1.0
General research for general circulation; not investment, legal or tax advice and not tailored to any reader. Every probability is our estimate, scored when it resolves.
Suggest it for the series; if we take it up, the answer is published to everyone.