It has started, but small: in 12 months to July 2026, 11.3 of 96.8 bcm of gas exports and 32.6 of 256.0 million m³ of crude went beyond the US.
Archive edition. Researched 1 September 2026; harmonised to the current house standard 30 September 2026. Evidence to 30 September 2026; facts refreshed 30 September 2026.
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“It has started, but small: in 12 months to July 2026, 11.3 of 96.8 bcm of gas exports and 32.6 of 256.0 million m³ of crude went beyond the US.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“The reading would be wrong if non-US gas exports fell below 0.39 bcm, their first month's level, in any month of the next published year.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“Of that, 11.7% of the gas (11.34 bcm) and 12.7% of the crude (32.6 million m³) went to countries other than the United States.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada Affected United States
“July 2025 is the first month in which Statistics Canada publishes any natural gas export to a country other than the United States.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“122 export cargo records, June 2025 to July 2026: Korea 46, China 36, Japan 25, Taiwan 10, three others 5.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“By volume, the United States took 88.3% of Canadian gas exports and 87.3% of crude exports in the 12 months to July 2026”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada Affected United States
“For July 2026 the regulator lists 0.70 bcm from Kitimat and the agency 1.21 bcm of non-US gas exports, 42.2% apart. Across July 2025 to July 2026 the two agree within 1% in 6 of 13 months.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“The Trans Mountain system's available capacity was 143 thousand cubic metres a day (899 thousand barrels a day) in June 2026.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“No route used for this brief publishes a project-by-project register of what is under construction, with a capacity and a date, at the standard the flow data meets.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“The binding link is scale, and on the measured record it binds on capacity rather than on demand.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“The first is geography made durable by capital: the pipeline network to the United States is built, and the measured Pacific marine route is one dock for crude and one terminal for nearly all the gas.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada Affected United States
“The absolute numbers are small and the denominators are large. Over the 12 months to July 2026 the non-US gas flow was 11.34 bcm and the non-US crude flow 32.6 million m³.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“No source used carries regulatory decisions, policy positions, permit status or intergovernmental agreements at the standard the rest of this brief meets.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“Of 122 export cargo records from Kitimat, all are long-term and all name a single licence holder. The buyer base is spread across seven destinations; the seller base is one.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“For this class the question is reliability, and the measured answer is: demonstrated, small and single-sourced.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“For this class the question is whether Canadian diversification reduces available supply, and the measured answer is yes, by a small amount.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada Affected United States
“UN Comtrade records China, Japan and Korea as the largest 2025 destinations of Canadian coal and of ores, slag and ash; they are also the three largest destinations of the gas cargoes”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Registered forecasts are never changed: they stay as issued and are scored as registered. Facts found after the research date are listed here with their date and source.
No forecast is registered with this edition.
Statistics Canada released July 2026 gas data. In the 12 months to July 2026, 11.7% of gas export volume went to countries other than the United States (11.34 of 96.80 bcm); the source edition reported 10.9% for the 12 months to June 2026. The non-US flow was 1.21 bcm in July 2026, after 1.41 bcm in June.
Statistics Canada, table 25-10-0086, released 23 Sep 2026, retrieved 30 Sep 2026
Statistics Canada released July 2026 crude data. In the 12 months to July 2026, 12.7% of crude export volume went to countries other than the United States; the source edition reported 12.4% to June 2026.
Statistics Canada, table 25-10-0063, released 29 Sep 2026, retrieved 30 Sep 2026
The regulator's LNG detail file lists 122 export cargo records from Kitimat to July 2026 (114 to June 2026 in the source edition): Korea 46, China 36, Japan 25, Taiwan 10, Viet Nam 3, Thailand 1, Philippines 1.
Canada Energy Regulator, LNG exports detail, retrieved 30 Sep 2026
Correction. Table 25-10-0086 opens in January 2016, and its non-US gas column is blank for 114 months before July 2025. The source edition said 48 months, a count bounded by its 60-month pull window.
Statistics Canada, table 25-10-0086, 240-period pull and cube metadata, retrieved 30 Sep 2026
For July 2026 the regulator lists 0.70 bcm from Kitimat and the agency 1.21 bcm of non-US gas exports, 42.2% apart. Across July 2025 to July 2026 the two agree within 1% in 6 of 13 months. The source edition's 0.66% agreement held for June 2026 only. Not resolved.
Canada Energy Regulator LNG exports monthly; Statistics Canada 25-10-0086; both retrieved 30 Sep 2026
Correction. The regulator's file also lists 10 small LNG export records to China from three other British Columbia points, under 0.1% of the Kitimat volume. The source edition said the entire non-US gas trade ran through one terminal; this edition says nearly all.
Canada Energy Regulator, LNG exports detail, retrieved 30 Sep 2026
Unchanged on re-retrieval: the regulator's Trans Mountain file ends at June 2026; UN Comtrade's 2024 and 2025 crude and merchandise records (no values are printed in this edition); no HS 271111 row for Canada in 2025; nameplate capacity blank on all 2,961 pipeline rows.
Canada Energy Regulator; UN Comtrade Database, United Nations Statistics Division; retrieved 30 Sep 2026
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