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Aluminium

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Brazil: 5.8–6.2%Source [1] of its aluminium imports pass through the Strait of Hormuz (2025), the largest share of one country on file.

This page answers: Who supplies whom with this good, which straits does it pass, and who runs short first?

Using this page
  1. Read the short version: who supplies whom, the straits it passes and who runs short first.
  2. Tap a country for its page, or a strait for its page.
  3. Choose Full analyst view for the flow ledger, the sources and the method.
Link to this page

Supply balance

Exhibit S-1 · Supply balance
How much each country makes, buys and sells
Consumption = production + imports − exports (± stock change).
Reading the supply balance

Supply balance first, suppliers second.

Each card shows the latest complete period: the newest with consumption and at least one of production, imports and exports on file. The table also keeps the newest period where it is partial.

Shown in thousand tonnes; bauxite and alumina in thousand tonnes, dry weight.

Primary aluminium, bauxite and alumina are separate items, never added.

Each item is its own balance, in its own unit. They are never added together.

Shown first: the two largest net importers and the two largest net exporters on file, latest complete period.

China

Primary aluminium · 2024 · ktNET IMPORTER
Production44,000 kt
Imports2,137 kt
Exports121 kt
Consumption45,894 kt
Net import dependence
4.4%
Via a strait, share of use
not on file
Stocks cover
not on file

In 2024, China imported 2,137 kt and produced 44,000 kt. Net imports met 4.4% of its use.

Source: China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association; National Stock Exchange of India (citing World Bureau of Metal Statistics); U.S. Geological Survey, National Minerals Information Center

Also on file: Alumina, Bauxite
Alumina · 2025 · kt (dry)CONSUMPTION NOT ON FILE
Production93,000 kt (dry)
Importsnot on file
Exportsnot on file
Consumptionnot on file
Net import dependence
not on file
Via a strait, share of use
not on file
Stocks cover
not on file

In 2025, China produced 93,000 kt (dry). Its consumption is not on file.

estimate Source: U.S. Geological Survey, National Minerals Information Center

Bauxite · 2025 · kt (dry)CONSUMPTION NOT ON FILE
Production87,000 kt (dry)
Importsnot on file
Exportsnot on file
Consumptionnot on file
Net import dependence
not on file
Via a strait, share of use
not on file
Stocks cover
not on file

In 2025, China produced 87,000 kt (dry). Its consumption is not on file.

estimate Source: U.S. Geological Survey, National Minerals Information Center

Germany

Primary aluminium · 2024 · ktNET IMPORTER
Productionnot on file
Imports2,200 kt
Exports450 kt
Consumption1,524 kt
Net import dependence
115% Low confidence
Via Bab el-Mandeb, share of use
47.4% Low confidence
Stocks cover
not on file

Imports exceed consumption: a stock build, or trade and use on different scopes

In 2024, Germany imported 2,200 kt. Net imports met 115% of its use. Its production is not on file.

Low confidence Source: AL Circle; National Stock Exchange of India (citing World Bureau of Metal Statistics); Eurostat

Also on file: Alumina, Bauxite
Alumina · 2025 · kt (dry)CONSUMPTION NOT ON FILE
Production460 kt (dry)
Importsnot on file
Exportsnot on file
Consumptionnot on file
Net import dependence
not on file
Via a strait, share of use
not on file
Stocks cover
not on file

In 2025, Germany produced 460 kt (dry). Its consumption is not on file.

estimate Source: U.S. Geological Survey, National Minerals Information Center

Bauxite · 2025 · kt (dry)CONSUMPTION NOT ON FILE
Production0 kt (dry)
Importsnot on file
Exportsnot on file
Consumptionnot on file
Net import dependence
not on file
Via a strait, share of use
not on file
Stocks cover
not on file

In 2025, Germany produced 0 kt (dry). Its consumption is not on file.

Source: U.S. Geological Survey, National Minerals Information Center

India

Primary aluminium · 2024 · ktTRADE NOT ON FILE
Production4,200 kt
Importsnot on file
Exportsnot on file
Consumption2,619 kt
Net import dependence
none (net producer) estimate
Via Hormuz, share of imports
41.9% Low confidence
Stocks cover
not on file

In 2024, India produced 4,200 kt and used 2,619 kt. Its imports and exports are not on file.

estimate Source: National Stock Exchange of India (citing World Bureau of Metal Statistics); U.S. Geological Survey, National Minerals Information Center; Ministry of Commerce and Industry, Department of Commerce (India), Export Import Data Bank

Also on file: Alumina, Bauxite
Alumina · 2025 · kt (dry)CONSUMPTION NOT ON FILE
Production8,200 kt (dry)
Importsnot on file
Exportsnot on file
Consumptionnot on file
Net import dependence
not on file
Via a strait, share of use
not on file
Stocks cover
not on file

In 2025, India produced 8,200 kt (dry). Its consumption is not on file.

estimate Source: U.S. Geological Survey, National Minerals Information Center

Bauxite · 2025 · kt (dry)CONSUMPTION NOT ON FILE
Production25,000 kt (dry)
Importsnot on file
Exportsnot on file
Consumptionnot on file
Net import dependence
not on file
Via a strait, share of use
not on file
Stocks cover
not on file

In 2025, India produced 25,000 kt (dry). Its consumption is not on file.

estimate Source: U.S. Geological Survey, National Minerals Information Center

Brazil

Primary aluminium · 2024 · ktNET EXPORTER
Production1,100 kt
Importsnot on file
Exports307 kt
Consumption932 kt
Net import dependence
none (net producer) estimate
Via a strait, share of use
not on file
Stocks cover
not on file

In 2024, Brazil produced 1,100 kt and used 932 kt. It exported 307 kt. Its imports is not on file.

estimate Source: Associação Brasileira do Alumínio (ABAL); National Stock Exchange of India (citing World Bureau of Metal Statistics); U.S. Geological Survey, National Minerals Information Center

Also on file: Alumina, Bauxite
Alumina · 2025 · kt (dry)CONSUMPTION NOT ON FILE
Production11,000 kt (dry)
Importsnot on file
Exportsnot on file
Consumptionnot on file
Net import dependence
not on file
Via a strait, share of use
not on file
Stocks cover
not on file

In 2025, Brazil produced 11,000 kt (dry). Its consumption is not on file.

estimate Source: U.S. Geological Survey, National Minerals Information Center

Bauxite · 2025 · kt (dry)CONSUMPTION NOT ON FILE
Production33,000 kt (dry)
Importsnot on file
Exportsnot on file
Consumptionnot on file
Net import dependence
not on file
Via a strait, share of use
not on file
Stocks cover
not on file

In 2025, Brazil produced 33,000 kt (dry). Its consumption is not on file.

estimate Source: U.S. Geological Survey, National Minerals Information Center

Share of consumption via a passage = import share of consumption x modelled share of named imports via the passage. Modelled, low confidence.

SourceChina Nonferrous Metals Industry Association (Cited figure; credit the publisher named); National Stock Exchange of India (citing World Bureau of Metal Statistics) (Cited figure; credit the publisher named); U.S. Geological Survey, National Minerals Information Center (USGS-authored data are U.S. public domain; ScienceBase marks the release CC0 1.0. Credit USGS.); AL Circle (Cited figure; credit the publisher named); Associação Brasileira do Alumínio (ABAL) (Cited figure; credit the publisher named); Eurostat (CC BY 4.0; commercial reuse allowed with source credit.); Ministry of Commerce and Industry, Department of Commerce (India), Export Import Data Bank (Cited figure; credit the publisher named).Reading this plateEach bar is one figure in the row's own unit, scaled to the largest of the four. A hollow bar is worked out from the other three, not reported. The accent marks the selected country.
Exhibit S-1 · Aluminium · strature.net
Exhibit S-2 · Map
Aluminium: net import dependence, country by country
Primary aluminium · Colour: net import dependence, latest complete period on file. Tap a country for its balance.
Skip the map

The map needs JavaScript. Every country is in the table below.

Colour: net import dependence, latest complete period on file. Tap a country for its balance.

SourceAssociação Brasileira do Alumínio (ABAL) (Cited figure; credit the publisher named); National Stock Exchange of India (citing World Bureau of Metal Statistics) (Cited figure; credit the publisher named); U.S. Geological Survey, National Minerals Information Center (USGS-authored data are U.S. public domain; ScienceBase marks the release CC0 1.0. Credit USGS.); China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association (Cited figure; credit the publisher named); AL Circle (Cited figure; credit the publisher named); Argus (Cited figure; credit the publisher named); Eurostat (CC BY 4.0; commercial reuse allowed with source credit.); Ministry of Commerce and Industry, Department of Commerce (India), Export Import Data Bank (Cited figure; credit the publisher named); Ministry of Finance Japan / e-Stat (Government of Japan Standard Terms of Use 2.0, compatible with CC BY 4.0.); Statistics Canada (Statistics Canada Open Licence: commercial and non-commercial use with credit.).
Exhibit S-2 · Aluminium · strature.net
Exhibit S-3 · Over time
China: production, trade and use over time
Hover, tap or focus a point for its value, period, grade and source.

Primary aluminium · thousand tonnes

020,00040,00060,00080,000202020212022202320242025Production · 2020: 37,100 kt · High confidence · Source: U.S. Geological Survey, National Minerals Information CenterProduction · 2021: 38,900 kt · High confidence · Source: U.S. Geological Survey, National Minerals Information CenterProduction · 2022: 40,200 kt · High confidence · Source: U.S. Geological Survey, National Minerals Information CenterProduction · 2023: 41,600 kt · High confidence · Source: U.S. Geological Survey, National Minerals Information CenterProduction · 2024: 44,000 kt · Medium confidence · Source: China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association; National Stock Exchange of India (citing World Bureau of Metal Statistics); U.S. Geological Survey, National Minerals Information CenterProduction · 2025: 45,000 kt · Medium confidence · estimate · Source: U.S. Geological Survey, National Minerals Information CenterImports · 2024: 2,137 kt · Medium confidence · Source: China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association; National Stock Exchange of India (citing World Bureau of Metal Statistics); U.S. Geological Survey, National Minerals Information CenterExports · 2024: 121 kt · Medium confidence · Source: China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association; National Stock Exchange of India (citing World Bureau of Metal Statistics); U.S. Geological Survey, National Minerals Information CenterConsumption · 2024: 45,894 kt · Medium confidence · Source: China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association; National Stock Exchange of India (citing World Bureau of Metal Statistics); U.S. Geological Survey, National Minerals Information CenterProductionImportsExportsConsumption

Alumina · thousand tonnes, dry weight

025,00050,00075,000100,000202020212022202320242025Production · 2020: 73,100 kt (dry) · High confidence · Source: U.S. Geological Survey, National Minerals Information CenterProduction · 2021: 75,200 kt (dry) · High confidence · Source: U.S. Geological Survey, National Minerals Information CenterProduction · 2022: 81,900 kt (dry) · High confidence · Source: U.S. Geological Survey, National Minerals Information CenterProduction · 2023: 82,400 kt (dry) · High confidence · Source: U.S. Geological Survey, National Minerals Information CenterProduction · 2024: 85,500 kt (dry) · High confidence · Source: U.S. Geological Survey, National Minerals Information CenterProduction · 2025: 93,000 kt (dry) · Medium confidence · estimate · Source: U.S. Geological Survey, National Minerals Information CenterProduction

Bauxite · thousand tonnes, dry weight

025,00050,00075,000100,000202020212022202320242025Production · 2020: 92,700 kt (dry) · High confidence · Source: U.S. Geological Survey, National Minerals Information CenterProduction · 2021: 90,000 kt (dry) · Medium confidence · estimate · Source: U.S. Geological Survey, National Minerals Information CenterProduction · 2022: 90,000 kt (dry) · Medium confidence · estimate · Source: U.S. Geological Survey, National Minerals Information CenterProduction · 2023: 91,000 kt (dry) · Medium confidence · estimate · Source: U.S. Geological Survey, National Minerals Information CenterProduction · 2024: 80,500 kt (dry) · Medium confidence · estimate · Source: U.S. Geological Survey, National Minerals Information CenterProduction · 2025: 87,000 kt (dry) · Medium confidence · estimate · Source: U.S. Geological Survey, National Minerals Information CenterProduction
SourceU.S. Geological Survey, National Minerals Information Center (USGS-authored data are U.S. public domain; ScienceBase marks the release CC0 1.0. Credit USGS.); China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association (Cited figure; credit the publisher named); National Stock Exchange of India (citing World Bureau of Metal Statistics) (Cited figure; credit the publisher named).
Exhibit S-3 · Aluminium · strature.net
Exhibit S-4 · Every figure
Every figure, as a table
Every figure: the latest complete period per country, and the newest where it is partial. Scroll sideways inside the table on a phone.
CountryItemPeriodProductionImportsExportsConsumptionNet import dependenceGradeSource
AustraliaPrimary aluminium (kt)20251,500 kt estimatenot on filenot on filenot on filenot on fileMedium confidence estimateU.S. Geological Survey, National Minerals Information Center
AustraliaAlumina (kt (dry))202517,000 kt (dry) estimatenot on filenot on filenot on filenot on fileMedium confidence estimateU.S. Geological Survey, National Minerals Information Center
AustraliaBauxite (kt (dry))202597,000 kt (dry) estimatenot on filenot on filenot on filenot on fileMedium confidence estimateU.S. Geological Survey, National Minerals Information Center
BahrainPrimary aluminium (kt)20251,600 kt estimatenot on filenot on filenot on filenot on fileMedium confidence estimateU.S. Geological Survey, National Minerals Information Center
BrazilPrimary aluminium (kt)20241,100 kt estimatenot on file307 kt estimate932 kt estimate-18% estimateMedium confidence estimateAssociação Brasileira do Alumínio (ABAL); National Stock Exchange of India (citing World Bureau of Metal Statistics); U.S. Geological Survey, National Minerals Information Center
BrazilPrimary aluminium (kt)20251,200 kt estimatenot on filenot on filenot on filenot on fileMedium confidence estimateU.S. Geological Survey, National Minerals Information Center
BrazilAlumina (kt (dry))202511,000 kt (dry) estimatenot on filenot on filenot on filenot on fileMedium confidence estimateU.S. Geological Survey, National Minerals Information Center
BrazilBauxite (kt (dry))202533,000 kt (dry) estimatenot on filenot on filenot on filenot on fileMedium confidence estimateU.S. Geological Survey, National Minerals Information Center
CanadaPrimary aluminium (kt)20253,300 kt estimatenot on filenot on filenot on filenot on fileMedium confidence estimateU.S. Geological Survey, National Minerals Information Center
CanadaAlumina (kt (dry))20251,500 kt (dry) estimatenot on filenot on filenot on filenot on fileMedium confidence estimateU.S. Geological Survey, National Minerals Information Center
CanadaBauxite (kt (dry))20250 kt (dry)not on filenot on filenot on filenot on fileHigh confidenceU.S. Geological Survey, National Minerals Information Center
ChinaPrimary aluminium (kt)202444,000 kt2,137 kt121 kt45,894 kt4.4%Medium confidenceChina Nonferrous Metals Industry Association; National Stock Exchange of India (citing World Bureau of Metal Statistics); U.S. Geological Survey, National Minerals Information Center
Show every figure (62 rows)
CountryItemPeriodProductionImportsExportsConsumptionNet import dependenceGradeSource
ChinaPrimary aluminium (kt)202545,000 kt estimatenot on filenot on filenot on filenot on fileMedium confidence estimateU.S. Geological Survey, National Minerals Information Center
ChinaAlumina (kt (dry))202593,000 kt (dry) estimatenot on filenot on filenot on filenot on fileMedium confidence estimateU.S. Geological Survey, National Minerals Information Center
ChinaBauxite (kt (dry))202587,000 kt (dry) estimatenot on filenot on filenot on filenot on fileMedium confidence estimateU.S. Geological Survey, National Minerals Information Center
GermanyPrimary aluminium (kt)2024not on file2,200 kt Low confidence450 kt Low confidence1,524 kt Low confidence115% Low confidenceLow confidenceAL Circle; National Stock Exchange of India (citing World Bureau of Metal Statistics)
GermanyAlumina (kt (dry))2025460 kt (dry) estimatenot on filenot on filenot on filenot on fileMedium confidence estimateU.S. Geological Survey, National Minerals Information Center
GermanyBauxite (kt (dry))20250 kt (dry)not on filenot on filenot on filenot on fileHigh confidenceU.S. Geological Survey, National Minerals Information Center
GreeceAlumina (kt (dry))2025850 kt (dry) estimatenot on filenot on filenot on filenot on fileMedium confidence estimateU.S. Geological Survey, National Minerals Information Center
GreeceBauxite (kt (dry))2025960 kt (dry) estimatenot on filenot on filenot on filenot on fileMedium confidence estimateU.S. Geological Survey, National Minerals Information Center
GuineaAlumina (kt (dry))2025360 kt (dry) estimatenot on filenot on filenot on filenot on fileMedium confidence estimateU.S. Geological Survey, National Minerals Information Center
GuineaBauxite (kt (dry))2025150,000 kt (dry) estimatenot on filenot on filenot on filenot on fileMedium confidence estimateU.S. Geological Survey, National Minerals Information Center
IcelandPrimary aluminium (kt)2025750 kt estimatenot on filenot on filenot on filenot on fileMedium confidence estimateU.S. Geological Survey, National Minerals Information Center
IndiaPrimary aluminium (kt)20244,200 kt estimatenot on filenot on file2,619 kt estimate-60.4% estimateMedium confidence estimateNational Stock Exchange of India (citing World Bureau of Metal Statistics); U.S. Geological Survey, National Minerals Information Center
IndiaPrimary aluminium (kt)20254,200 kt estimatenot on filenot on filenot on filenot on fileMedium confidence estimateU.S. Geological Survey, National Minerals Information Center
IndiaAlumina (kt (dry))20258,200 kt (dry) estimatenot on filenot on filenot on filenot on fileMedium confidence estimateU.S. Geological Survey, National Minerals Information Center
IndiaBauxite (kt (dry))202525,000 kt (dry) estimatenot on filenot on filenot on filenot on fileMedium confidence estimateU.S. Geological Survey, National Minerals Information Center
IndonesiaAlumina (kt (dry))20251,500 kt (dry) estimatenot on filenot on filenot on filenot on fileMedium confidence estimateU.S. Geological Survey, National Minerals Information Center
IndonesiaBauxite (kt (dry))202510,000 kt (dry) estimatenot on filenot on filenot on filenot on fileMedium confidence estimateU.S. Geological Survey, National Minerals Information Center
IrelandAlumina (kt (dry))20251,700 kt (dry) estimatenot on filenot on filenot on filenot on fileMedium confidence estimateU.S. Geological Survey, National Minerals Information Center
IrelandBauxite (kt (dry))20250 kt (dry)not on filenot on filenot on filenot on fileHigh confidenceU.S. Geological Survey, National Minerals Information Center
JamaicaAlumina (kt (dry))20251,500 kt (dry) estimatenot on filenot on filenot on filenot on fileMedium confidence estimateU.S. Geological Survey, National Minerals Information Center
JamaicaBauxite (kt (dry))20256,200 kt (dry) estimatenot on filenot on filenot on filenot on fileMedium confidence estimateU.S. Geological Survey, National Minerals Information Center
JapanPrimary aluminium (kt)2024not on file1,050 kt Low confidencenot on file1,727 kt Low confidencenot on fileLow confidenceArgus; National Stock Exchange of India (citing World Bureau of Metal Statistics)
KazakhstanAlumina (kt (dry))20251,500 kt (dry) estimatenot on filenot on filenot on filenot on fileMedium confidence estimateU.S. Geological Survey, National Minerals Information Center
KazakhstanBauxite (kt (dry))20254,800 kt (dry) estimatenot on filenot on filenot on filenot on fileMedium confidence estimateU.S. Geological Survey, National Minerals Information Center
MalaysiaPrimary aluminium (kt)20241,050 kt estimatenot on filenot on file927 kt estimate-13.3% estimateMedium confidence estimateNational Stock Exchange of India (citing World Bureau of Metal Statistics); U.S. Geological Survey, National Minerals Information Center
MalaysiaPrimary aluminium (kt)20251,100 kt estimatenot on filenot on filenot on filenot on fileMedium confidence estimateU.S. Geological Survey, National Minerals Information Center
NorwayPrimary aluminium (kt)20251,300 kt estimatenot on filenot on filenot on filenot on fileMedium confidence estimateU.S. Geological Survey, National Minerals Information Center
RussiaPrimary aluminium (kt)20253,900 kt estimatenot on filenot on filenot on filenot on fileMedium confidence estimateU.S. Geological Survey, National Minerals Information Center
RussiaAlumina (kt (dry))20252,900 kt (dry) estimatenot on filenot on filenot on filenot on fileMedium confidence estimateU.S. Geological Survey, National Minerals Information Center
RussiaBauxite (kt (dry))20255,700 kt (dry) estimatenot on filenot on filenot on filenot on fileMedium confidence estimateU.S. Geological Survey, National Minerals Information Center
Saudi ArabiaPrimary aluminium (kt)2024not on filenot on filenot on file805 ktnot on fileMedium confidenceNational Stock Exchange of India (citing World Bureau of Metal Statistics)
Saudi ArabiaAlumina (kt (dry))20251,900 kt (dry) estimatenot on filenot on filenot on filenot on fileMedium confidence estimateU.S. Geological Survey, National Minerals Information Center
Saudi ArabiaBauxite (kt (dry))20255,700 kt (dry) estimatenot on filenot on filenot on filenot on fileMedium confidence estimateU.S. Geological Survey, National Minerals Information Center
South KoreaPrimary aluminium (kt)2024not on filenot on filenot on file1,288 ktnot on fileMedium confidenceNational Stock Exchange of India (citing World Bureau of Metal Statistics)
SpainAlumina (kt (dry))2025810 kt (dry) estimatenot on filenot on filenot on filenot on fileMedium confidence estimateU.S. Geological Survey, National Minerals Information Center
SpainBauxite (kt (dry))20250 kt (dry)not on filenot on filenot on filenot on fileHigh confidenceU.S. Geological Survey, National Minerals Information Center
TurkeyPrimary aluminium (kt)2024not on filenot on filenot on file1,446 ktnot on fileMedium confidenceNational Stock Exchange of India (citing World Bureau of Metal Statistics)
TurkeyAlumina (kt (dry))2025310 kt (dry) estimatenot on filenot on filenot on filenot on fileMedium confidence estimateU.S. Geological Survey, National Minerals Information Center
TurkeyBauxite (kt (dry))20253,800 kt (dry) estimatenot on filenot on filenot on filenot on fileMedium confidence estimateU.S. Geological Survey, National Minerals Information Center
UkraineAlumina (kt (dry))2022300 kt (dry)not on filenot on filenot on filenot on fileHigh confidenceU.S. Geological Survey, National Minerals Information Center
UkraineBauxite (kt (dry))20220 kt (dry)not on filenot on filenot on filenot on fileHigh confidenceU.S. Geological Survey, National Minerals Information Center
United Arab EmiratesPrimary aluminium (kt)20252,700 kt estimatenot on filenot on filenot on filenot on fileMedium confidence estimateU.S. Geological Survey, National Minerals Information Center
United Arab EmiratesAlumina (kt (dry))20252,300 kt (dry) estimatenot on filenot on filenot on filenot on fileMedium confidence estimateU.S. Geological Survey, National Minerals Information Center
United Arab EmiratesBauxite (kt (dry))20250 kt (dry)not on filenot on filenot on filenot on fileHigh confidenceU.S. Geological Survey, National Minerals Information Center
United KingdomPrimary aluminium (kt)2024not on filenot on filenot on file167 kt Low confidencenot on fileLow confidenceAL Circle
United StatesPrimary aluminium (kt)2025660 kt estimatenot on filenot on filenot on filenot on fileMedium confidence estimateU.S. Geological Survey, National Minerals Information Center
United StatesAlumina (kt (dry))2025710 kt (dry) estimate1,900 kt (dry) estimate130 kt (dry) estimate2,500 kt (dry) estimate70.8% estimateMedium confidence estimateU.S. Geological Survey, National Minerals Information Center
United StatesBauxite (kt (dry))2025not on file3,000 kt (dry) estimate74 kt (dry) estimate1,700 kt (dry) estimate172% estimateMedium confidence estimateU.S. Geological Survey, National Minerals Information Center
VietnamAlumina (kt (dry))20251,500 kt (dry) estimatenot on filenot on filenot on filenot on fileMedium confidence estimateU.S. Geological Survey, National Minerals Information Center
VietnamBauxite (kt (dry))20253,800 kt (dry) estimatenot on filenot on filenot on filenot on fileMedium confidence estimateU.S. Geological Survey, National Minerals Information Center

Marks: Low confidence (a less certain source, shown with its source) and estimate (the source's own estimate). Not on file: no figure published.

Download CSV

The CSV leaves out 10 rows. Their sources (Associação Brasileira do Alumínio (ABAL); National Stock Exchange of India (citing World Bureau of Metal Statistics); China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association; AL Circle; Argus) allow their figures to be cited, not passed on. They are in the table with their source.

SourceU.S. Geological Survey, National Minerals Information Center (USGS-authored data are U.S. public domain; ScienceBase marks the release CC0 1.0. Credit USGS.); Associação Brasileira do Alumínio (ABAL) (Cited figure; credit the publisher named); National Stock Exchange of India (citing World Bureau of Metal Statistics) (Cited figure; credit the publisher named); China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association (Cited figure; credit the publisher named); AL Circle (Cited figure; credit the publisher named); Argus (Cited figure; credit the publisher named).
Exhibit S-4 · Aluminium · strature.net

Who buys, who sells

Buyers on file and their suppliers

  1. EU (27)
  2. Japan
  3. Germany inside the EU (27) figure, never added to it
  4. France inside the EU (27) figure, never added to it
  5. Canada
  6. Greece
  7. Italy

6 of 7 buyers on file, most suppliers first; every flow is in the flow ledger. Each share is the supplier’s share of that buyer’s imports of this good, as published (one unit, per cent); shares are never added. The EU (27) is a bloc, on the switch, never added to its members. Records whose every figure is zero stay in the ledger only.

Suppliers on file

  1. India 5 buyers on file
  2. United Arab Emirates 5 buyers on file
  3. Bahrain 3 buyers on file
  4. Oman 3 buyers on file
  5. Qatar 3 buyers on file
  6. Saudi Arabia 3 buyers on file

Suppliers by the number of buyers on file (countries; the EU (27) not counted). A count of records, not a measure of volume.

Straits it passes

  • Bab el-Mandeb

    37 of the 48 flows on file pass it on their modelled route

  • Suez Canal

    37 of the 48 flows on file pass it on their modelled route

  • Strait of Malacca

    22 of the 48 flows on file pass it on their modelled route

  • Strait of Hormuz

    17 of the 48 flows on file pass it on their modelled route

    Cited shares of a country’s imports that pass it:

    1. Brazil 5.8–6.2%Source [1]

  • Cape of Good Hope

    3 of the 48 flows on file pass it on their modelled route

  • the Turkish Straits

    1 of the 48 flows on file pass it on their modelled route

Counts are counts of flow records (records whose every figure is zero left out). Routes are modelled main routes, not ship tracks; a share is shown only where a source gives it.

If a strait closes

Who runs short first

Case: Strait of Hormuz closed, restricted or unsafe. For each country, the day on file when its supply shortfall begins for this good, or, where nothing runs short, when its late-arrival gap begins.

2 of the 2 countries on file for this good reach a supply shortfall in this case; the first to run short are listed first.

  1. EU (27) supply shortfall begins: day 19

    first day with cargo lost (no stock record on file)

  2. France supply shortfall begins: day 19

    first day with cargo lost (no stock record on file)

    Inside the EU (27) figure: shown, never added to it or to a total
  3. Germany supply shortfall begins: day 19

    first day with cargo lost (no stock record on file)

    Inside the EU (27) figure: shown, never added to it or to a total

Days as on file in the precomputed case “Strait of Hormuz closed for 30 days” (Strature network pack, the network map’s default settings). Day 0 is the first day of the closure; the shaded part of each line is the closure (30 days); each line runs to day 120.

Illustrative arithmetic on stated assumptions; not a forecast; not advice. Illustrative arithmetic on stated assumptions; it does not say whether, when or for how long a strait will close.

Forecast register

Related forecasts in our register

Nearest related forecast; not about this good alone.

In the register’s exact words, each with our estimate, scored when it resolves.

  • F-0074 · A renewed US or Israeli strike on Iran, 22 Aug-20 Nov 2026 · 61%, our estimate, scored when it resolves · resolves by 20 Nov 2026 · Open · brief S-001

The full forecast register

Note, : US Central Command reported strikes on Iranian territory on 30 Aug and 1 Sep 2026; this question resolves on 20 Nov under its rules.

Full analyst view

The flow ledger

Every flow on file
Supplier → buyerYearBasisShare of the buyer’s importsVolumeStraits on the modelled routeConfidence
India → Canada2025observed–1,457 t/yrSource [4]Strait of Malaccahigh
Qatar → Canada2025observed0.919%Source [4]–Strait of Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb, Suez Canalhigh
United Arab Emirates → Canada2025observed0.909%Source [4]0 t/yrSource [4]Strait of Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb, Suez Canalhigh
Australia → EU (27)2025observed0.267%Source [2]64,130 t/yrSource [2]Bab el-Mandeb, Suez Canalhigh
Bahrain → EU (27)2025observed7.031%Source [2]476,300 t/yrSource [2]Strait of Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb, Suez Canalhigh
India → EU (27)2025observed3.604%Source [2]264,700 t/yrSource [2]Bab el-Mandeb, Suez Canalhigh
Indonesia → EU (27)2025observed1.294%Source [2]353,000 t/yrSource [2]Bab el-Mandeb, Suez Canal, Strait of Malaccahigh
Malaysia → EU (27)2025observed1.406%Source [2]94,160 t/yrSource [2]Bab el-Mandeb, Suez Canal, Strait of Malaccahigh
Mozambique → EU (27)2025observed8.154%Source [2]573,800 t/yrSource [2]Bab el-Mandeb, Suez Canalhigh
Oman → EU (27)2025observed1.36%Source [2]93,140 t/yrSource [2]Bab el-Mandeb, Suez Canalhigh
Saudi Arabia → EU (27)2025observed1.184%Source [2]84,490 t/yrSource [2]Strait of Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb, Suez Canalhigh
United Arab Emirates → EU (27)2025observed6.998%Source [2]454,300 t/yrSource [2]Strait of Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb, Suez Canalhigh
Australia → France2025observed0.255%Source [2]549.2 t/yrSource [2]Bab el-Mandeb, Suez Canalhigh
Bahrain → France2025observed5.192%Source [2]11,270 t/yrSource [2]Strait of Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb, Suez Canalhigh
China → France2025observed0.177%Source [2]359.2 t/yrSource [2]Bab el-Mandeb, Suez Canal, Strait of Malaccahigh
India → France2025observed10.59%Source [2]24,700 t/yrSource [2]Bab el-Mandeb, Suez Canalhigh
Indonesia → France2025observed1.293%Source [2]2,990 t/yrSource [2]Bab el-Mandeb, Suez Canal, Strait of Malaccahigh
Malaysia → France2025observed2.333%Source [2]5,010 t/yrSource [2]Bab el-Mandeb, Suez Canal, Strait of Malaccahigh
New Zealand → France2025observed4.475%Source [2]9,749 t/yrSource [2]Bab el-Mandeb, Suez Canalhigh
Oman → France2025observed4.345%Source [2]10,630 t/yrSource [2]Bab el-Mandeb, Suez Canalhigh
Saudi Arabia → France2025observed1.929%Source [2]4,508 t/yrSource [2]Strait of Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb, Suez Canalhigh
United Arab Emirates → France2025observed8.914%Source [2]19,780 t/yrSource [2]Strait of Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb, Suez Canalhigh
Bahrain → Germany2025observed8.188%Source [2]52,550 t/yrSource [2]Strait of Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb, Suez Canalhigh
China → Germany2025observed2.017%Source [2]27,240 t/yrSource [2]Bab el-Mandeb, Suez Canal, Strait of Malaccahigh
India → Germany2025observed3.61%Source [2]24,380 t/yrSource [2]Bab el-Mandeb, Suez Canalhigh
Indonesia → Germany2025observed2.029%Source [2]12,880 t/yrSource [2]Bab el-Mandeb, Suez Canal, Strait of Malaccahigh
Japan → Germany2025observed0.609%Source [2]1,495 t/yrSource [2]Bab el-Mandeb, Suez Canal, Strait of Malaccahigh
Malaysia → Germany2025observed3.278%Source [2]22,260 t/yrSource [2]Bab el-Mandeb, Suez Canal, Strait of Malaccahigh
New Zealand → Germany2025observed0.439%Source [2]2,419 t/yrSource [2]Bab el-Mandeb, Suez Canalhigh
Oman → Germany2025observed0.972%Source [2]6,174 t/yrSource [2]Bab el-Mandeb, Suez Canalhigh
Qatar → Germany2025observed0.446%Source [2]2,810 t/yrSource [2]Strait of Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb, Suez Canalhigh
Saudi Arabia → Germany2025observed2.022%Source [2]13,570 t/yrSource [2]Strait of Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb, Suez Canalhigh
United Arab Emirates → Germany2025observed28.85%Source [2]175,300 t/yrSource [2]Strait of Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb, Suez Canalhigh
India → Greece2025cited21.9%Source [5]–Bab el-Mandeb, Suez Canalhigh
Mozambique → Italy2025cited11.6%Source [5]–Bab el-Mandeb, Suez Canalhigh
Argentina → Japan2025observed––Strait of Malacca, Cape of Good Hope–
Bahrain → Japan2025observed––Strait of Hormuz, Strait of Malacca–
Brazil → Japan2025observed––Strait of Malacca, Cape of Good Hope–
India → Japan2025observed––Strait of Malacca–
Kazakhstan → Japan2025observed2.136%Source [3]–Bab el-Mandeb, Suez Canal, Strait of Malacca, the Turkish Straitshigh
Nigeria → Japan2025observed––Strait of Malacca, Cape of Good Hope–
Oman → Japan2025observed––Strait of Malacca–
Qatar → Japan2025observed––Strait of Hormuz, Strait of Malacca–
Saudi Arabia → Japan2025observed––Strait of Hormuz, Strait of Malacca–
South Africa → Japan2025observed––Strait of Malacca–
Spain → Japan2025observed0.655%Source [3]560 t/yrSource [3]Bab el-Mandeb, Suez Canal, Strait of Malaccahigh
United Arab Emirates → Japan2025observed––Strait of Hormuz, Strait of Malacca–
United Arab Emirates → United Kingdom2025cited22.4%Source [6]–Strait of Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb, Suez Canalhigh

Basis: observed (reported by the buyer), mirror (reported by the supplier) or cited (a published figure). Volumes are shown in the one unit the pack uses for this good and are never added. Rows to the EU (27) show on the switch.

Supplier concentration

No supplier concentration index on file for this good. The flow ledger lists the suppliers on file.

Scenario cases

  • Strait of Hormuz closed, restricted or unsafe

    In short In a 30-day closure some oil never arrives at all: of the economies shown, China loses the most, 310-317 million barrels. Illustrative arithmetic on stated assumptions; not a forecast; not advice. Illustrative arithmetic on stated assumptions; it does not say whether, when or for how long a strait will close.

  • Red Sea: half of traffic avoids Bab el-Mandeb for 90 days

    In short Going round the Cape for 90 days loses nothing on lanes with a cited Cape route: 55 million barrels of the economies shown arrive late, most of it the EU's. Illustrative arithmetic on stated assumptions; not a forecast; not advice. Illustrative arithmetic on stated assumptions; it does not say whether, when or for how long a strait will close.

  • Strait of Malacca closed for 14 days

    In short Closing the Strait of Malacca causes delay, not loss: ships go by Lombok and Makassar, about 3 days longer. Illustrative arithmetic on stated assumptions; not a forecast; not advice. Illustrative arithmetic on stated assumptions; it does not say whether, when or for how long a strait will close.

Briefs

  • S-001 Iran and the Strait of Hormuz: a scenario brief

Method

Every figure on this page carries its source, its year and a link; figures from 2023 or older carry an amber mark. The flows are the Strature network pack (approved, independently re-checked); a good has its own page when the pack carries ten or more flows for it. Shares are as published and never added; volumes stay in the one unit the pack uses for the good and are never added across goods. Routes are modelled main routes. The days in “Who runs short first” are read from the precomputed cases the network map and the scenario pages use; late cargo is never added to lost cargo, and the EU (27) is never added to its members. The forecast box shows our register’s words and estimates unchanged, each scored when it resolves.

Sources and licences

  1. [1] MDIC/SECEX Comex Stat, 2025
  2. [2] Share of EU (27)'s aluminium imports from Mozambique. Eurostat, 2025
  3. [3] Share of Japan's aluminium imports from Kazakhstan. Ministry of Finance Japan / e-Stat, 2025
  4. [4] Share of Canada's aluminium imports from Qatar. Statistics Canada, 2025
  5. [5] Share of Greece's aluminium imports from India. Eurostat Comext, 2025
  6. [6] HMRC Overseas Trade Statistics, 2025

Cite this page Strature, “Aluminium”, Strature GPS, https://strature.net/gps/goods/aluminium/, 31 Oct 2026.

  • Illustrative arithmetic on stated assumptions; not a forecast; not advice.
  • Illustrative arithmetic on stated assumptions; it does not say whether, when or for how long a strait will close.
  • Nearest related forecast; not about this good alone.
  • We say “the Gulf” for the sea also called the Persian Gulf or the Arabian Gulf.
  • Routes are modelled, not ship tracks; not for navigation.
  • No data provider endorses Strature or this page, and none is affiliated with us.
  • General research, not advice.