Likely, as registered on 21 August 2026: 61% that US or Israeli forces strike Iran by 20 November 2026, our estimate, scored when it resolves; on 21 August the strait was shut by permit.
Archive edition. Researched 21 August 2026; harmonised to the current house standard 30 September 2026. Evidence to 30 September 2026; facts refreshed 30 September 2026.
Dashed line: Even odds · 50%
A QUALIFYING STRIKE · 61%, OUR ESTIMATE
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Data. Each exhibit’s Download the chart data (CSV) link gives exactly the values drawn in that chart, with its title, source, credit, licence, retrieval date, the brief’s number and our general-research notice in the file’s first lines. It is free to use under the licence stated with it, crediting the source as printed. Deeper datasets come only with the full brief.
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| Running on 21 Aug 2026 | Held by the Iranian authority | Held by the US government | Held by insurers or the market | Held by owners, masters or crews | Needs a renewed strike | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A permit refused | Yes | Yes | No | No | No | No |
| Mandated cover is designated | Yes | No | Yes | Yes | No | No |
| Master or crew refuses | Yes | No | No | No | Yes | No |
| US naval blockade | Yes | No | Yes | No | No | No |
| Cover only on approval | Yes | No | No | Yes | No | No |
| Owners stay away | Yes | No | No | No | Yes | No |
| A renewed strike | No | No | Yes | No | No | Yes |
Swipe the table sideways to see every column.
| Would move our view up | Would move our view down | Could take it below even odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Attack on US forces | Yes | No | No |
| 91 days, no attack | No | Yes | No |
| Energy veto lifted | Yes | No | No |
| Energy ruled out | No | Yes | Yes |
Each answer is quoted verbatim from the brief, with the section that answers it and the countries it touches. Answers with a register ID are our estimates, scored when they resolve; the others are the brief’s reading of the evidence, not forecasts.
“Likely, as registered on 21 August 2026: 61% that US or Israeli forces strike Iran by 20 November 2026, our estimate, scored when it resolves; on 21 August the strait was shut by permit.”
our estimate, scored when it resolvesOn the register: F-0074 61%, open · F-0073 72%, superseded, scored. The forecast register
“Six were in force on 21 August 2026 with no renewed strike”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“Permission was conditional on cover the authority itself approves and on a prescribed route along the Iranian coast, with alternatives prohibited.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Iran
“Washington's designations do not cite the London condition, the condition does not cite them, and Tehran's requirement cites neither.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“The quiet that followed was 23 days old at registration.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“A single munition suffices; no casualty, damage or scale threshold applies.”
our estimate, scored when it resolvesOn the register: F-0074 61%, open · F-0073 72%, superseded, scored. The forecast register
“The paths overlap, which is why the composed figure sits well below the sum of its parts; the overlap is what the superseded 72% mishandled.”
our estimate, scored when it resolvesOn the register: F-0074 61%, open · F-0073 72%, superseded, scored. The forecast register
“A negotiated reopening, Iran's conditions met, or the strait forced open: the only roads any party has named.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“The closure is the transmission; a strike is an input to it.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“A strike changes what is listed; it does not publish a price.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Iran Affected United Kingdom
“A one-dollar toll and a two-million-dollar toll carry the same consequence, and the guidance note states it also reaches payments to a non-Iranian entity such as Oman, or other states.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“The pay terms are known rates against a crew cost base.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Iran
“Relief cargo moved to Aqaba and to land corridors from Dubai.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“The forms already used sit on the water.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“If a US principal states that energy infrastructure is off the target list, or the measures of 19–20 August are formally presented as the substitute for military action, or a dated instrument replaces the lapsed understanding, our view falls”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“Iran 26%, Greece 17%, China 9% of 111 counted transits; the rest unattributed”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Registered forecasts are never changed: they stay as issued and are scored as registered. Facts found after the research date are listed here with their date and source.
| No. | Forecast | Estimate | Issued | Resolves | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F-0074 | A renewed US or Israeli strike on Iran, 22 Aug-20 Nov 2026 (operative) | 61% our estimate, scored when it resolves | Issued 21 Aug 2026 | Resolves 20 Nov 2026 | Open |
| F-0073 | Same event, superseded 21 Aug 2026 on an upheld arithmetic challenge; still scored | 72% our estimate, scored when it resolves | Issued 21 Aug 2026 | Resolves 20 Nov 2026 | Superseded, scored |
US forces struck IRGC rocket launchers on Larak Island, the first reported US strike on Iran since 29 July; US Central Command described it as "limited, precise action" against forces attempting to lay mines (Stars and Stripes, 1 Sep 2026).
Stars and Stripes, 1 Sep 2026 (retrieved 30 Sep 2026); Wikipedia, September 2026 United States strikes on Iran (second-hand, retrieved 30 Sep 2026)
US Central Command announced a new round of strikes on IRGC targets in Iran, naming air-defence sites, radar systems, maritime assets and facilities, mine-laying capabilities and communications sites.
Stars and Stripes, 1 Sep 2026 (retrieved 30 Sep 2026). US Central Command's own site: fresh retrieval FAILED (robots.txt 403)
CBS News and ABC News reported on 8 Sep 2026 that US forces had struck IRGC-linked Iranian oil tankers after attempted Iranian missile attacks on a US Navy warship; neither report was an on-the-record US government statement.
Wikipedia, September 2026 United States strikes on Iran, citing CBS News and ABC News of 8 Sep 2026 (second-hand, retrieved 30 Sep 2026)
The Joint War Committee issued circular JWLA-035; the committee's page states the listed areas were last reviewed in September 2026. TT Club states the change takes effect for its members on 30 September 2026.
Lloyd's Market Association, Joint War Committee page; TT Club, Listed Area page (both retrieved 30 Sep 2026)
According to Al Jazeera, Iran's foreign minister presented a seven-day plan to reopen the strait if the US released frozen funds, lifted oil sanctions and ended its blockade, and the US President rejected it. Al Jazeera reported that Iranian attacks on vessels had sharply curtailed shipping since February.
Al Jazeera, 26 Sep 2026 (retrieved 30 Sep 2026); France 24, 26 Sep 2026 (retrieved 30 Sep 2026)
Re-read unchanged: OFAC FAQ 1249 (updated 29 May 2026); the Lloyd's Market Association transit-fee condition of 23 July 2026 and its guidance note; the ITF-JNG warlike-operations designation of 5 March 2026 under weekly review.
OFAC; Lloyd's Market Association; ITF (all retrieved 30 Sep 2026)
Whether any of these events meets the settlement criterion of F-0074 and F-0073 (a munition on Iranian land, islands or a commissioned warship, acknowledged in capacity) is decided only at scoring on 4 December 2026. Both forecasts are printed and scored as registered.
Strature forecast register (W-35)
Correction C-02 closed: the four retrieval marks the source edition printed on its own registers are replaced by the real retrieval date of a fresh retrieval, or NOT DISCLOSED. See annex 1.
Strature corrections log (W-46)
No new forecast is issued with these facts; a new view would be a new, separately dated forecast.
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