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Croatia

Croatia's one Gulf link is jet fuel: the UAE supplied 38.08% of jet imports in 2025, but only 9.1 kt, 0.35% of all oil product imports. Crude and LNG came from elsewhere. Approved reading

This page answers: Which questions do our briefs address about Croatia?

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  • Region Europe · Central and Eastern Europe
  • Readings updated
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Your exposure

Croatia in our readings

Croatia is in 2 of our country readings.

  • Gulf war / Hormuz Medium
  • Europe's right turn Medium

Each band as published in its reading, against that reading’s stated lines; the readings are never combined into one band.

Outlook to November 2027

  • Geopolitics and conflict Low
  • Trade, tariffs and sanctions Not yet set
  • Supply chains and chokepoints Not yet set
  • Energy and resources Elevated
  • Technology and cyber Not yet set
  • Regulation and compliance Not yet set
  • Finance and markets Not yet set
The seven outlooks in full: why, and the index

Seven categories, 12 months ahead. The outlook is our judgement, approved by the Principal. The index measures open data on 0–10; higher means more risk. How they are set

Compare Croatia on the outlook map

Dates for Croatia on the risk calendar

The other side: 3 lines from our readings and register

General information, not advice.

Risks that reach Croatia

  • Gulf war / Hormuz Medium

    • F-0074 · A renewed US or Israeli strike on Iran, 22 Aug-20 Nov 2026 · 61%, our estimate, scored when it resolves · resolves by 20 Nov 2026 · Open · brief S-001

    Note, : US Central Command reported strikes on Iranian territory on 30 Aug and 1 Sep 2026; this question resolves on 20 Nov under its rules.

    Strait of Hormuz

Show all 2 risks that reach Croatia
  • Europe's right turn Medium

    No forecast in our register is attached to this reading.

Each forecast is our estimate, scored when it resolves, in the register’s own words.

World risks for Croatia

All world risks that touch Croatia

Goods and chokepoints

Exhibit S-1 · Supply balance

How much Croatia makes, buys and sells, good by good

Consumption = production + imports − exports (± stock change).
Reading the supply balance

Supply balance first, suppliers second.

One card per good, each in its own unit. Goods are never added together.

Each card shows the latest complete period: the newest with consumption and at least one of production, imports and exports on file.

Figures of 1,000 kb/d or more show in million barrels a day (mb/d).

What to watch

  • Monthly Eurostat jet fuel arrivals by origin: do UAE cargoes return to their 2025 share? Gulf war / Hormuz
  • Monthly Eurostat crude arrivals by origin: further Iraqi cargoes. Gulf war / Hormuz
  • Monthly Eurostat LNG arrivals at Krk by origin. Gulf war / Hormuz
  • 20 Nov 2026 Commission's preliminary assessments of the final recovery-fund payment requests. Europe's right turn
  • 26-27 Nov 2026 Special European Council on the 2028-2034 budget (to be confirmed). Europe's right turn
  • 17-18 Dec 2026 European Council; the 2028-2034 budget is on the agenda. Europe's right turn

Questions firms in this position often review

  • Which of the risks above reach our own suppliers, customers or assets in Croatia?
  • Which of the forecasts above bear on our plans in Croatia, and which outcome would change them?
  • Which dated items under What to watch fall inside our next planning cycle?

General research, not advice. Request a free pilot

Full analyst view

Open Croatia on the map of brief questions

Country analysis

Questions our briefs address

The questions our published briefs address that touch Croatia.

Europe's right turn · Strature analysis, not from the brief

Europe's right turn: what is at stake for Croatia

EU spending in Croatia averaged 2.95% of GNI in 2024-2025. The 2028-2034 EU budget needs unanimity, so the votes of each government shape its size and conditions.

Theme band Medium

2.95%

of GNI, EU spending excl. administration (2024-2025 average)

55%

of general government investment (2024)

EUR16.8bn

EUR bn proposed for Croatia's partnership plan, 2028-2034

EUR1,040.9m

EUR m from the recovery fund (2025)

Read the full panel

Risks

  • The recovery fund paid EUR 1,040.9m in Croatia in 2025; the last Commission payments are due by 31 Dec 2026.
  • The 2028-2034 EU budget needs unanimity. The negotiating box of 10 Oct 2026 sets EUR 1,622,011m in 2025 prices, and one government can hold up a deal.
  • The Commission proposes EUR 16.8bn for Croatia's partnership plan in 2028-2034, in current prices; the final figure depends on the deal.
  • EU money equalled 55.0% of Croatia's public investment in 2024, so a smaller or more conditional budget could reach public projects.

Opportunities

  • The proposal adds EUR 1.3bn for migration, security and home affairs and EUR 1.0bn from the Social Climate Fund for Croatia.
  • SAFE defence loans, an EU instrument, provisionally allot EUR 1.7bn to Croatia (press report, estimate). Estimate from press or commentary

Uncertainties

  • EU spending rose from 2.84% of GNI in 2024 to 3.06% in 2025; the band uses the two-year average, close to the High line.
  • Euronews reported in Sep 2026 that Croatia was withholding consent on four chapters of Montenegro's accession talks; every enlargement step needs all 27 member states. Estimate from press or commentary
  • The vehicle line is held: Croatia's exports of vehicles and parts, EUR 1.01bn in 2024, include re-exports.

What to watch

  • 20 Nov 2026Commission's preliminary assessments of the final recovery-fund payment requests.
  • 26-27 Nov 2026Special European Council on the 2028-2034 budget (to be confirmed).
  • 17-18 Dec 2026European Council; the 2028-2034 budget is on the agenda.
  • 31 Dec 2026Deadline for the last Commission payments from the Recovery and Resilience Facility.
  • 18 Apr 2027French presidential election, first round; the second round is on 2 May 2027. World-risk card rk-europe-right-turn names it as the main path to the shift.

Exposure by channel

Exposure band per channel, with the figure and the published line
ChannelFigureBandPublished line
Eu budgetRevenue2.95% of GNI 2024-2025EU spending in the country excluding administration, % of GNI, average of 2024 and 2025MediumHigh ≥3.0% · Medium 2.0–3.0% · Low 1.0–2.0%

Bands follow the published materiality lines for this theme. A low-confidence figure alone caps a band at Medium.

EU spending in Croatia and Croatia's payments to the EU budget, EUR m
EU budget expenditure in the country, all headings incl. NextGenerationEU: EUR2,897.5m (2025)2025, expenditure in co…2,897.5EU budget expenditure in the country, all headings incl. NextGenerationEU: EUR2,457.1m (2024)2024, expenditure in co…2,457.1Own resources paid to the EU budget (total own resources): EUR785.6m (2025)2025, Own resources pai…785.6Own resources paid to the EU budget (total own resources): EUR688.6m (2024)2024, Own resources pai…688.6

Drawn to scale from zero. Source: European Commission, EU spending and revenue, data 2000-2025 (eu_budget_spending_and_revenue_2000-2025.xlsx).

Sources cited

Estimates from press or commentary

Our calculations

  • EU spending in the country excluding administration, % of GNI, average of 2024 and 2025: 2.95% of GNI (= (share 2024 + share 2025) / 2)
  • EU spending in the country (excl. administration) relative to public investment: 55% of general government investment (= EU spending % of GNI (2024) / general government GFCF % of GDP (2024) × 100)
  • EU spending in the country excluding administration, % of GNI: 2.84% of GNI (= (EU expenditure incl. NGEU - heading 7 administration) / GNI × 100)
  • EU spending in the country excluding administration, % of GNI: 3.06% of GNI (= (EU expenditure incl. NGEU - heading 7 administration) / GNI × 100)

Eurostat data: © European Union, CC BY 4.0; shares and sums computed by Strature.

Strature analysis, not from the brief: researched by Strature from public sources and kept in our country dossier, updated 3 Nov 2026. General research, not advice.

Gulf war / Hormuz · Strature analysis, not from the brief

Gulf war / Hormuz: what is at stake for Croatia

Croatia's one Gulf link is jet fuel: the UAE supplied 38.08% of jet imports in 2025, but only 9.1 kt, 0.35% of all oil product imports. Crude and LNG came from elsewhere.

Theme band Medium

38.1%

of jet fuel imports from the UAE, by weight (2025)

9.1

of jet fuel from the UAE (2025)

0.35%

of all oil product imports from the Gulf (2025)

0%

of LNG imports from Qatar and the UAE (2025)

Read the full panel

Risks

  • A renewed closure could cut UAE jet cargoes: 9.1 kt of the 23.9 kt of jet fuel imported in 2025 came from the UAE.
  • Gulf crude returned in 2026: Iraq supplied 4.88% of crude imports in Jan-Aug 2026, after none in 2025.
  • Oil products come mainly from neighbours: Italy and Slovenia sent 35.3% and 31.6% of product imports in 2025, so a Gulf shock would arrive mainly through European supply and prices.
  • Slovakia took 451.3 kt of Saudi crude in 2025; the Adriatic (JANAF) line is its non-Russian supply route, so a Saudi stop could reduce that flow through Croatia. Saudi cargoes may load on the Red Sea side.

Opportunities

  • Croatia imported no Qatari or UAE LNG in 2025 (Eurostat); the US supplied 68.7% of LNG imports.
  • Suppliers outside the Gulf covered jet fuel in Jan-Aug 2026: China sent 9.5 kt and Belgium 6.1 kt of 18.8 kt, with none from the Gulf.
  • Crude came from outside the Gulf in 2025: Azerbaijan alone supplied 41.5% of 2,591.0 kt, with Libya and Kazakhstan next.

Uncertainties

  • 9.1 kt of jet fuel counts as a material volume, though no value figure is published for it; the band rests on the share.
  • Egypt supplied 11.9 kt of jet fuel in 2025; how much Egyptian output rests on Gulf crude is not measured here.
  • A trade-press report mentions occasional Qatari cargoes at Krk in earlier years; Eurostat shows none in 2025 or in Jan-Sep 2026. Estimate from press or commentary

What to watch

  • 20 Nov 2026F-0074 resolves: a renewed strike on Iran could close the Strait again.
  • MonthlyEurostat jet fuel arrivals by origin: do UAE cargoes return to their 2025 share?
  • MonthlyEurostat crude arrivals by origin: further Iraqi cargoes.
  • MonthlyEurostat LNG arrivals at Krk by origin.

Exposure by channel

Exposure band per channel, with the figure and the published line
ChannelFigureBandPublished line
Refined products (JET)Energy38.1% 2025Share of jet fuel (kerosene-type, SIEC O4661) imports from Gulf producers (weight)MediumHigh ≥40% · Medium 20–40% · Low 10–20%
Refined productsEnergy0.35% 2025Share of oil products (SIEC O4600) imports from Gulf producers (weight)Below lineHigh ≥40% · Medium 20–40% · Low 10–20%
Crude oilEnergy0% 2025Share of crude oil imports from Gulf producers (weight)Below lineHigh ≥50% · Medium 25–50% · Low 10–25%
LNGEnergy0% 2025Share of LNG imports from Qatar and the UAEBelow lineHigh ≥50% · Medium 25–50% · Low 10–25%
Exports to the GulfTrade1.07% 2025Share of goods exports to GCC states and Iran (value)Below lineHigh ≥25% · Medium 10–25% · Low 5–10%

Bands follow the published materiality lines for this theme. A low-confidence figure alone caps a band at Medium.

Gulf share of Croatian imports by channel, 2025 (%)
Share of jet fuel (kerosene-type, SIEC O4661) imports from Gulf producers (weight): 38.1% (2025)Jet fuel (kerosene-…38.08Share of goods exports to GCC states and Iran (value): 1.07% (2025)GCC states and Iran1.07Share of oil products (SIEC O4600) imports from Gulf producers (weight): 0.35% (2025)Oil products (SIEC…0.35Share of crude oil imports from Gulf producers (weight): 0% (2025)Crude oil0.00Share of LNG imports from Qatar and the UAE: 0% (2025)LNG0.00

GulfElsewhere

Drawn to scale from zero. Source: Eurostat, Imports of oil and petroleum products by partner country, monthly data (nrg_ti_oilm); Eurostat, Imports of natural gas by partner country, monthly data (nrg_ti_gasm); Eurostat Comext, EU trade since 1988 by HS2-4-6 and CN8 (DS-045409).

Briefs and questions

Sources cited

Estimates from press or commentary

Our calculations

  • Gulf jet fuel to replace if Gulf loadings stop for 3 months, on 2025 volumes: 2.3 kt (= 9.1 kt × 3/12)

Eurostat data: © European Union, CC BY 4.0; shares and sums computed by Strature.

Strature analysis, not from the brief: researched by Strature from public sources and kept in our country dossier, updated 3 Nov 2026. General research, not advice. Who else is exposed: Gulf war / Hormuz →

ISO 3166-1 name: Croatia (HRV). Country and territory names follow common usage and imply no position on sovereignty.

Sources and licences

No figure on this page yet.

Cite this page Strature, “Croatia”, Strature GPS, https://strature.net/gps/hrv/, 11 Nov 2026.

  • We say “the Gulf” for the sea also called the Persian Gulf or the Arabian Gulf.
  • General research, not advice.
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