A coastal wildfire forces 1,000 or more people from their homes in Croatia
The test Between 3 Nov 2026 and 3 Nov 2027, a wildfire on Croatia's coast or islands forces 1,000 or more people to leave their homes, as reported by civil protection or two news sources.
Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
What changed
Dated, newest first
- Later reports give one death, 43 injured and up to about 2,500 evacuated (Wikipedia, not confirmed at a wire) [3]
Why it matters
In August 2026 a wildfire reached the tourist town of Omiš on the Dalmatian coast, and about 1,000 residents and tourists had to leave. The coast carries Croatia's tourism season, and the 2027 fire season (June to September) falls inside the window. This card asks whether a fire of that size comes again.
Why Likelihood 3 Pushes: the precedent; the coming fire season. Brakes: firefighting means; a wet summer; the precedent only just met the threshold.
Where it sits
How it spreads
Sample, no data on file. No cited flows by country on file for this risk.
Between 3 Nov 2026 and 3 Nov 2027, a wildfire on Croatia's coast or islands forces 1,000 or more people to leave their homes, as reported by civil protection or two news sources.
Not under wayChannels 3 on the card
- CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
- TourismEvacuations in peak season close beaches, roads and hotels for days (Strature's view, from [1]).
- Local transportCoastal roads close while fires burn (Strature's view).
Countries 1
- Croatia primary
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
Quiet season
A cooler or wetter summer and early response keep fires small.
- S2
Repeat
A fire near a coastal town forces about 1,000 people out again.
- S3
Worse
Several fires at once displace thousands.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | No evacuation order on the coast by end-September 2027 |
| S2 | A civil protection evacuation order in July or August 2027 |
| S3 | A request for EU firefighting aircraft |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
- Jun 2027 Start of the 2027 fire season (June to September) [1] Tentative · Window
- 3 Nov 2027 End of the scored window [1] Declared · Strature date
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Connected in Strature
- Croatia
- A single wildfire of 20,000 hectares in Portugal or Greece Shares a channel: The same summer fire season around the Mediterranean.
Sources
3 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- Wildfire descends on Croatian tourist town, injures at least 19. Reuters via The Star · 14 Aug 2026 · News · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- Omiš wildfire: nearly 1,000 evacuated. Croatia Week · 14 Aug 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- 2026 in Croatia. Wikipedia · 3 Nov 2026 · Commentary · confidence low · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks