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World risk · Supply chains and chokepoints

A single wildfire of 20,000 hectares in Portugal or Greece

The test Between 3 Nov 2026 and 3 Nov 2027, one wildfire in Portugal or in Greece burns 20,000 hectares or more, as mapped by the EU's forest fire service (EFFIS).

Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
4Elevated steady this month
Impact
3Low steady this month
Breadth3
Depth2
Duration3
Hard to substitute3
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. EU 692,419 ha burned to 7 Oct 2026, below 2025 to the same date, above the 2006-2025 average of 360,510 ha [5]

Why it matters

2025 was the EU's worst wildfire season on record, and two fires in central Portugal each burned more than 40,000 hectares that August. The 2026 season was milder in Portugal, and the largest fire on Crete burned about 4,000 hectares. One more hot summer falls inside the window.

Why Likelihood 4 Pushes: the 2025 precedent; a summer season inside the window; earlier, more frequent and more intense heatwaves (JRC). Brakes: milder 2026 totals in Portugal; no such fire in either country in 2026; the event needs one fire of a set size.

Why Impact 3 Threshold case one 20,000 ha fire in one country.

The other facts on file (4)
  • EU burned area 1,079,538 ha in 2025, most since 2006; 22 very large fires in Portugal and Spain burned 460,585 ha, 43% of the EU total; 12 rescEU planes from 2028 [1] (31 Mar 2026)
  • Trancoso fire 49,324 ha and Arganil fire at least 47,432 ha (provisional); EFFIS put Arganil at 57,596 ha [2] (Aug 2025)
  • Largest 2026 Crete fire (Melambes, Rethymno) about 40,050 stremmata, about 4,000 ha, by 30 Jul [3] (31 Jul 2026)
  • Portugal 67,130 ha burned to 31 Aug 2026, 25% below the ten-year average; largest fire Vouzela 12,804 ha [4] (31 Aug 2026)

Where it sits

SPAIN11. A single wildfire of 20,000 hectares in Portugal or Greece: Low impact · possible (placed at the country)1 A single wildfireof 20,000 hectaresin Portugal or GreeceLow impact · possibleMEGAFIRE IN PORTUGAL OR GREECE0250 kmat 40°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
SPAINPORTUGAL11. A single wildfire of 20,000 hectares in Portugal or Greece: Low impact · possible (placed at the country)1 Megafirein Portugalor GreeceMEGAFIRE IN PORTUGAL OR GREECE0200 kmat 40°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).

How it spreads

Sample, no data on file. No cited flows by country on file for this risk.

If

Between 3 Nov 2026 and 3 Nov 2027, one wildfire in Portugal or in Greece burns 20,000 hectares or more, as mapped by the EU's forest fire service (EFFIS).

Not under way

Channels 5 on the card

  1. CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
  2. TransportFires of this size close motorways, rail lines and ports for days (Strature's view).
  3. TourismResorts are evacuated in peak season; losses are local and seasonal (Strature's view).
  4. PowerTransmission lines through fire zones trip or are switched off.
  5. EU firefightingShared rescEU planes are stretched; new planes come only from 2028 [1].

Sectors 3

  • Agriculture and food
  • Rail
  • Ports and logistics

Countries 3

Who is exposed

No figure on file: Portugal, Greece, Spain.

Sectors
Agriculture and food, Rail, Ports and logistics, Energy and pipelines
Goods
Timber

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    Mild summer

    No fire reaches 20,000 ha in either country.

  2. S2

    Iberian repeat

    An August heatwave sets several large fires in Portugal at once, as in 2025.

  3. S3

    Island fire

    A wind-driven fire on Crete or Evia passes the threshold.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1No heatwave of the August 2025 kind by mid-August 2027
S2EFFIS danger at extreme for central Portugal in July or August 2027
S3A Greek civil protection evacuation order for several villages at once

No probability is given for the three paths.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. Jun 2027 Start of the main fire season in Portugal and Greece [1] Tentative · Window
  2. Aug 2027 Peak fire month, as in Portugal in August 2025 [2] Tentative · Window
SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · WORLD · strature.net

The other side

Each large season speeds fuel clearing, rural land reform and EU firefighting capacity: the Commission is buying 12 planes and 5 helicopters [1]. Firms that make firefighting aircraft, sensors and forest services gain orders (Strature's view).

Connected in Strature

Sources

5 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. 2025 was EU's most destructive wildfire season on record. European Commission, Joint Research Centre · 31 Mar 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  2. Fogos de Trancoso e Arganil com mais de 40 mil hectares ardidos cada. RTP (Lusa) · 2025-08 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  3. Greece on fire: first satellite estimates of burned land. To Vima · 31 Jul 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  4. Área ardida este ano é a quinta mais elevada da década. RTP (Lusa) · 2026-09 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  5. Current wildfire situation in Europe. European Commission, Joint Research Centre · 8 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026

Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks