Tech, controls and power
The export controls the United States and China aim at each other, side by side with their next dates; our forecasts on where they go; and who holds the minerals that power runs on.
Both sides paused their autumn 2025 steps for a year: China its October 2025 controls (No. 70, to 10 Nov 2026) and its US mineral ban (No. 72, to 27 Nov 2026); the US its Affiliates Rule (to 9 Nov 2026). No extension text was found by 31 Oct 2026.
Next: 9 Nov 2026, in 7 days
Three rounds since January 2026: a military-user ban, then 40 and 40 more entities on China's control and watch lists.
China listed 7 EU entities in April 2026 and 14 in July 2026, the day after the EU's 21st Russia package listed Chinese firms; in October the two sides agreed to warn each other before listing or delisting.
The Dutch government took powers over a Chinese-owned chipmaker on 30 Sep 2025; China barred exports from its China unit on 4 Oct; the Dutch order was suspended on 19 Nov 2025.
| Aimed at | Actions | Shaded on the map | From |
|---|---|---|---|
| China | 24 | 24 | United States 22, European Union 1, Netherlands 1 |
| All destinations (no single country) | 20 | Not shaded | China 9, United States 4, Netherlands 3, Japan 2, European Union 1, South Korea 1 |
| United States | 9 | 9 | China 9 |
| Japan | 5 | 5 | China 3, United States 2 |
| European Union (27 members) | 2 | 2 for each member | China 2 |
| Netherlands | 1 | 3 | China 1 |
| Russia | 1 | 1 | United States 1 |
| Singapore | 1 | 1 | United States 1 |
| South Korea | 1 | 1 | United States 1 |
| Taiwan | 1 | 1 | China 1 |
As of 31 Oct 2026. Source: Official announcements, gathered by Strature.
Who acted (restrictive steps in force or suspended): 25 by China, 24 by the US, 4 by the Netherlands, 2 by the EU, 2 by Japan, 1 by South Korea
Every probability is sealed in a published brief and scored in public when its date comes. The first resolves on 10 Jan 2027.
F-0191 to F-0194A set of 4 outcomes · C-005 Edition 2.0Open
Sealed 3 Oct 2026 · first shown here 8 Oct 2026Resolves by 10 Jan 2027Scored on 24 Jan 2027
Scored when it resolves: one Brier score for the whole set, from 0 (perfect) to 2. For a set of four outcomes, even odds (25% each) score 0.75; lower is better.
The full card in the forecast register · The controls behind it, in the tracker
F-0210C-005 Edition 2.0Open
4% our probability · almost no chance
Sealed 3 Oct 2026 · first shown here 8 Oct 2026Resolves by 10 Jan 2027Scored on 24 Jan 2027
Settled by, word for word
Scored when it resolves: Brier score against the baseline of 0.25 (a 50% guess).
The full card in the forecast register · The controls behind it, in the tracker
Two more technology forecasts are being prepared.
China's share of world mine production, 2025e69.2%
Strature calculation: China ÷ USGS world total (rounded), MCS 2026 table.
China's control: Export licensing in force (MOFCOM-GAC Announcement No. 18 of 2025, since 4 Apr 2025). October 2025 controls suspended until 10 Nov 2026 (MOFCOM-GAC Announcement No. 70 of 2025). MOFCOM-GAC Announcement No. 70 of 2025. Checked 1 Nov 2026.
China's share of world primary (low-purity) production, 2025e99%
as stated by USGS (MCS 2026, Gallium: 'China accounted for 99% of worldwide primary low-purity gallium production'). The USGS table itself gives 100% (rounded totals). We show the share USGS states.
China's control: Export licensing in force (MOFCOM-GAC Announcement No. 23 of 2023, since 1 Aug 2023). US export ban suspended until 27 Nov 2026 (MOFCOM Announcement No. 72 of 2025). MOFCOM Announcement No. 72 of 2025. Checked 1 Nov 2026.
China's share of world refinery production, 2025enot published by USGS
China's control: Export licensing in force (MOFCOM-GAC Announcement No. 23 of 2023, since 1 Aug 2023). US export ban suspended until 27 Nov 2026 (MOFCOM Announcement No. 72 of 2025). MOFCOM Announcement No. 72 of 2025. Checked 1 Nov 2026.