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Scenarios: what if a strait closes?

Nine scenarios in the library, each a strait closed, restricted or avoided. Pick one to see what stops, what arrives late and by how many days, what is lost, and who runs short first. Today’s network follows the scenarios.

This page answers: What if a strait closes: who waits, for how long, and for which goods?

Using this page
  1. Use the finder: choose a strait, a country or a good.
  2. Pick a scenario from the list or the map.
  3. Open its page for the days late, what is lost and who runs short first.

Scenario finder

Find the scenario for your question

Filter strait, country or good, length

1 · Which strait?

2 · What do you care about? A country or a good

3 · How long or how bad?

Today's network

Which straits carry whose supply

2025

The library

Every scenario at a glance

Crude oil over each scenario's days, from the precomputed results: stopped · arrives late · lost. Tap one to play it on the map.

    Settings and the table

    Three switches, and the numbers behind the map

    The table loads when it scrolls into view.

    Reading this page

    Illustrative arithmetic on stated assumptions; not a forecast; not advice. It does not say whether, when or for how long a strait will close.

    IEA (2026), Strait of Hormuz factsheet: CC BY 4.0 for IEA’s own work; figures based on Kpler data where stated; modified by Strature. World Bank, Commodity Markets Outlook: CC BY 3.0 IGO. Eurostat: CC BY 4.0.

    Naming a bank, broker or firm whose study or figure is cited is not a view on it or its securities. Named parties and readers may send corrections to corrections@strature.net.

    Map: Natural Earth, with Crimea drawn as part of Ukraine. Boundaries as drawn by the source; no position on any dispute is implied. Country and territory names follow common usage and imply no position on sovereignty. We say "the Gulf" for the sea also called the Persian Gulf or the Arabian Gulf. Routes are modelled, not ship tracks; not for navigation. No data provider endorses Strature or this page, and none is affiliated with us.

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