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Portugal

Portugal took 15% of its refined product imports by value from Gulf producers in 2025, mostly Kuwaiti and Saudi fuel, but no Gulf crude, LNG or urea. Low band, on products. Approved reading

This page answers: Which questions do our briefs address about Portugal?

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  • Region Europe · Western Europe
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Your exposure

Portugal in our readings

Portugal is in 1 of our country readings.

  • Gulf war / Hormuz Low

Each band as published in its reading, against that reading’s stated lines; the readings are never combined into one band.

Country card

Energy and value chains

EXHIBIT T-1 · PORTUGAL
Portugal imported 78.7% of the energy it used in 2024.
Each figure in its own unit; each figure's year is shown.
Net import dependence, all energy
78.7%2024 · share of the energy it used · our calculation, EIA data
Largest energy source
Oil, 58.0%2024 · share of primary energy use · our calculation, EIA data
Electricity mix
Hydro, 29.7%2025 · share of electricity generated · EmberRenewables 80.9% The latest year is partly estimated by Ember.
Crude oil supplier concentration (HHI, 0–1)
0.262024 · index 0–1, EC line 0.40 · our calculation, Eurostat dataEC band: moderately concentrated

The EU's position in value chains (Portugal is a member)

No value-chain share for Portugal alone is on file; these are the EU's, which include it.

  • Design software and IP as part of the EU 25%BCG and SIA · 2022
  • Chipmaking equipment as part of the EU 18%BCG and SIA · 2022
  • Analog and other design as part of the EU 17%BCG and SIA · 2022

Shares as published, each with its own measure and period; never added across stages.

All stages on the value-chains page

SourceUS Energy Information Administration, EIA International Energy Data, energy balance by fuel (bulk INTL), all countries (Public domain (US federal work); credit EIA); Ember, Electricity data (yearly and monthly) (All of Ember's electricity data is fully open, CC BY 4.0.); Eurostat, Energy imports and exports by partner country (nrg_ti_* and nrg_te_*), all Eurostat energy reporters (CC BY 4.0; commercial reuse allowed with source credit.). Value chains: BCG and SIA (facts-only: Copyright BCG and SIA; single facts cited with attribution (read via reproduction by a government office)). Shares and the index: our calculation from these figures.How to read this plateEach figure carries its own year and unit; they sit side by side and are never added into one score. Supplier concentration: 0 = many small suppliers, 1 = one supplier; the European Commission draws a line at 0.40.
Exhibit T-1 · Portugal · strature.net

The supply balance, good by good, is under Goods and chokepoints.

Outlook to October 2027

  • Geopolitics and conflict Not yet set
  • Trade, tariffs and sanctions Not yet set
  • Supply chains and chokepoints Not yet set
  • Energy and resources Elevated
  • Technology and cyber Not yet set
  • Regulation and compliance Not yet set
  • Finance and markets Not yet set
The seven outlooks in full: why, and the index

Seven categories, 12 months ahead. The outlook is our judgement, approved by the Principal. The index measures open data on 0–10; higher means more risk. How they are set

Compare Portugal on the outlook map

Dates for Portugal on the risk calendar

The other side: 3 lines from our readings and register

General information, not advice.

Risks that reach Portugal

  • Gulf war / Hormuz Low

    • F-0074 · A renewed US or Israeli strike on Iran, 22 Aug-20 Nov 2026 · 61%, our estimate, scored when it resolves · resolves by 20 Nov 2026 · Open · brief S-001

    Note, : US Central Command reported strikes on Iranian territory on 30 Aug and 1 Sep 2026; this question resolves on 20 Nov under its rules.

    Strait of Hormuz

Each forecast is our estimate, scored when it resolves, in the register’s own words.

Who runs short first is not shown for Portugal: its Hormuz volumes on file stop at 2024, and the scenario cases run on one year, 2025.

Goods and chokepoints

Exhibit S-1 · Supply balance

How much Portugal makes, buys and sells, good by good

Consumption = production + imports − exports (± stock change).
Reading the supply balance

Supply balance first, suppliers second.

One card per good, each in its own unit. Goods are never added together.

Each card shows the latest complete period: the newest with consumption and at least one of production, imports and exports on file.

Figures of 1,000 kb/d or more show in million barrels a day (mb/d).

What to watch

  • Monthly Eurostat and national trade data: do Kuwaiti and Saudi fuel cargoes return? Gulf war / Hormuz
  • Weekly Refined products through Hormuz: 677 kb/d on 28 Sep 2026, against 3.6 mb/d before the war. Gulf war / Hormuz
  • Weekly Government reviews of the diesel and gasoline tax discount. Gulf war / Hormuz

Questions firms in this position often review

  • Which of the risks above reach our own suppliers, customers or assets in Portugal?
  • Which of the forecasts above bear on our plans in Portugal, and which outcome would change them?
  • Which dated items under What to watch fall inside our next planning cycle?

General research, not advice. Request a free pilot

Full analyst view

Open Portugal on the map of brief questions

Dependency profile

Country card · Portugal

Chokepoints. The Energy and Value-chain strips appear here as each is approved for Portugal.

Chokepoints

Not enough open data
Modelled shares by strait (Strature route model)
  • Refined fuels, 2024: Suez 27% · Bab el-Mandeb 26% · Hormuz 16% · Malacca 10% (the route model covers 100% of its named imports) modelled
  • LNG, 2024: Bab el-Mandeb 2.0% · Suez 2.0% · Malacca 2.0% (the route model covers 100% of its named imports) modelled

Not on file

  • A cited share of imports through Hormuz
  • Import dependence
  • Oil stocks in days
  • A headline line

Dashed underline = low confidence.

Flows as of 2025, measured moves 2Q 2026; each figure shows its own period.See the map ›

Where Portugal’s supply comes from, and the straits on the way

DirectionYear

Sources in this profile

Tap any number for its source, period, licence and confidence. Modelled shares come from Strature’s route model, not from a cited figure.

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    Map: Natural Earth, with Crimea drawn as part of Ukraine. Boundaries as drawn by the source; no position on any dispute is implied. Country and territory names follow common usage and imply no position on sovereignty. We say “the Gulf” for the sea also called the Persian Gulf or the Arabian Gulf. Routes are modelled, not ship tracks; not for navigation.

    No data provider endorses Strature or this page, and none is affiliated with us. Company shares, where shown, are as published by the named source; naming a company is not a view on it or its securities. Research, not advice.

    Country analysis

    Questions our briefs address

    The questions our published briefs address that touch Portugal.

    Gulf war / Hormuz · Strature analysis, not from the brief

    Gulf war / Hormuz: what is at stake for Portugal

    Portugal took 15% of its refined product imports by value from Gulf producers in 2025, mostly Kuwaiti and Saudi fuel, but no Gulf crude, LNG or urea. Low band, on products.

    Theme band Low

    15.1%

    Refined product imports from the Gulf, by value (2025)

    EUR250.994m

    Refined products bought from Kuwait (2025)

    19.2%

    Refined product imports from the Gulf, by value (2024)

    77%est.

    Jet fuel imports from Asia and the Gulf, by value (2025, press report of national data)

    Read the full panel

    Risks

    • Kuwait alone sold Portugal EUR 251 m of refined products in 2025, 9.0% of the product import bill, much of it jet fuel. Estimate from press or commentary
    • Asian and Gulf origins supplied 77% of jet fuel imports by value in 2025. Estimate from press or commentary
    • Jet fuel stocks would last about 4 months if Gulf supply were not replaced (Argus estimate, April 2026). Estimate from press or commentary
    • Prices reach the pump without any Gulf crude: a diesel tax discount of 2.6 cents a litre was set in March 2026 after the strike on Iran. Estimate from press or commentary

    Opportunities

    • Crude comes from the Atlantic basin: Brazil EUR 1,690.1 m and Algeria EUR 810.5 m of EUR 4,052.5 m in 2025, none from the Gulf.
    • The Sines refinery can supply up to 80% of annual jet fuel use (press report), which narrows the gap if Gulf jet cargoes stop. Estimate from press or commentary
    • About 95% of gas enters through the Sines LNG terminal, mainly from Nigeria and the US; no Qatari or Emirati gas was bought in 2024 or 2025. Estimate from press or commentary

    Uncertainties

    • Trade data count origin, not route: Gulf fuel bought through Spain or the Netherlands is not counted as Gulf here.
    • The Gulf share fell from 19.25% in 2024 to 15.05% in 2025, as Saudi sales fell and Kuwaiti sales rose; the 2026 split is not yet published.
    • The jet fuel split comes from press reports of national statistics; the stock estimate is a market analyst's, not an official one. Estimate from press or commentary

    What to watch

    • 20 Nov 2026F-0074 resolves: a renewed strike could re-close the Strait.
    • MonthlyEurostat and national trade data: do Kuwaiti and Saudi fuel cargoes return?
    • WeeklyRefined products through Hormuz: 677 kb/d on 28 Sep 2026, against 3.6 mb/d before the war.
    • WeeklyGovernment reviews of the diesel and gasoline tax discount.

    Exposure by channel

    Exposure band per channel, with the figure and the published line
    ChannelFigureBandPublished line
    Refined productsDependence15.1% 2025Share of refined product imports (HS 2710) from Hormuz Gulf producersLowHigh ≥40% · Medium 20–40% · Low 10–20%
    Crude oilDependenceEUR4,052.487m 2025Crude oil imports (HS 2709), all originsBelow lineHigh ≥50% · Medium 25–50% · Low 10–25%
    LNGEnergyEUR1,470.349m 2025Imports of LNG, natural gas and LPG (HS 2711), all originsBelow lineHigh ≥50% · Medium 25–50% · Low 10–25%
    Exports to the GulfTrade0.69% 2025Share of goods exports to GCC states and IranBelow lineHigh ≥25% · Medium 10–25% · Low 5–10%

    Bands follow the published materiality lines for this theme. A low-confidence figure alone caps a band at Medium.

    Refined product imports (HS 2710), all origins and Gulf origins, 2025 (EUR m)
    Imports of refined petroleum products (HS 2710), all origins: EUR2,774.493m (2025)2025, all origins2,774.5Imports of refined petroleum products (HS 2710) from Kuwait: EUR250.994m (2025)2025, from Kuwait251.0Imports of refined petroleum products (HS 2710) from Saudi Arabia: EUR157.270m (2025)2025, from Saudi Arabia157.3Imports of refined petroleum products (HS 2710) from Iraq, UAE and Qatar: EUR9.302m (2025)2025, from Iraq UAE and…9.3

    GulfElsewhere

    Drawn to scale from zero. Source: Eurostat Comext, EU trade since 1988 by HS2-4-6 and CN8 (DS-045409), Portugal as reporter.

    Briefs and questions

    Sources cited

    Estimates from press or commentary

    Our calculations

    • Share of refined product imports (HS 2710) from Hormuz Gulf producers: 15.1% (= (Kuwait + Saudi Arabia + Iraq + UAE + Qatar HS 2710 imports) / all HS 2710 imports × 100)
    • Share of refined product imports (HS 2710) from Hormuz Gulf producers: 19.2% (= (Saudi Arabia + Kuwait + UAE HS 2710 imports) / all HS 2710 imports × 100)
    • Share of goods exports to GCC states and Iran: 0.69% (= sum of exports to SA, KW, AE, QA, BH, IQ, IR / all goods exports × 100)
    • Gulf refined product imports to replace if Gulf supply stops for 3 months: EUR104.39m (= 417.566380 × 3 / 12 = 104.39)

    Strature analysis, not from the brief: researched by Strature from public sources and kept in our country dossier, updated 28 Oct 2026. General research, not advice. Who else is exposed: Gulf war / Hormuz →

    ISO 3166-1 name: Portugal (PRT). Country and territory names follow common usage and imply no position on sovereignty.

    Sources and licences

    No figure on this page yet.

    Cite this page Strature, “Portugal”, Strature GPS, https://strature.net/gps/prt/, 31 Oct 2026.

    • We say “the Gulf” for the sea also called the Persian Gulf or the Arabian Gulf.
    • General research, not advice.
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