US tariffs and Canada · Strature analysis, not from the brief
US tariffs and Canada: what is at stake for Sweden
Sweden holds C$10.4bn of direct investment in Canada, C$11.7bn on an ultimate basis. Canada was also reported in May 2026 to have opened talks on Saab GlobalEye aircraft worth more than C$5bn.
C$10.4bn
Direct investment in Canada, immediate basis (2025)
C$11.7bn
Controlled from Sweden, ultimate basis (2025)
C$5bnest.
Reported value of Saab GlobalEye talks, 6 aircraft, more than C$bn (May 2026)
C$5.23bn
Canada's goods imports from Sweden (2025)
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Risks
- A non-binding GlobalEye term sheet was reported signed on 25 Sep 2026; Saab says it is not a purchase contract, and no signed contract was found to 6 Oct 2026. Estimate from press or commentary
- A Canadian recession (F-0174) would weigh on returns from C$10.4bn of Swedish-booked holdings.
- Copper made 29.9% of Canada's imports from Sweden in 2025; a weaker Canadian economy (F-0174) would cut demand for such inputs.
Opportunities
- Saab was reported to have said that an order of 40 Gripen would justify building whole jets in Canada, the first such line outside Sweden (commentary report). Estimate from press or commentary
- Canada's exports to Sweden rose 19.4% in 2025, to C$0.96bn.
Uncertainties
- Whether Canada orders Gripen at all, and with what Canadian content, is not known.
- Defence purchases show in goods trade only on delivery, so trade data will lag any deal.
- Swedish-controlled investment in Canada, C$11.7bn, is above the booked figure: Swedish capital also enters through other countries.
What to watch
- MonthlySaab and the Department of National Defence on GlobalEye contract talks.
- Apr 2027Statistics Canada's next annual direct investment release, by immediate and ultimate investor.
- 30 Sep 2027F-0173 resolves: US tariffs still above their 2024 level.
Exposure by lens
| Lens | Figure | Band | Published line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Capital in CanadaCapital and finance | C$10.4bn 2025Direct investment position in Canada (book value, immediate investor country) | Low | High ≥C$100bn · Medium C$25bn–C$100bn · Low C$10bn–C$25bn, or a pledge with nothing found placed |
Bands follow the published materiality lines for this theme. A low-confidence figure alone caps a band at Medium.
Immediate investor: the country where the investment is booked. Ultimate investor: the country of the company that controls it.
Drawn to scale from zero. Source: Statistics Canada, Table 36-10-0008-01, International investment position, Canadian direct investment abroad and foreign direct investment in Canada, by country, annual (book value); Statistics Canada, Table 36-10-0433-01, International investment position, Canadian direct investment abroad and foreign direct investment in Canada by ultimate investor country, annual (book value).
Briefs and questions
- C-006 F-0173 A lasting break: US tariffs still above their 2024 level, 92%, our estimate, scored when it resolves.
- C-006 F-0174 Canada in recession, 25%, our estimate, scored when it resolves.
Sources cited
- Statistics Canada, Table 36-10-0008-01, International investment position, Canadian direct investment abroad and foreign direct investment in Canada, by country, annual (book value) (2025; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
- Statistics Canada, Table 36-10-0433-01, International investment position, Canadian direct investment abroad and foreign direct investment in Canada by ultimate investor country, annual (book value) (2025; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
- Statistics Canada, Canadian International Merchandise Trade open data, imports HS6 x country (ODPFN015), 2025 (2025; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
- Statistics Canada, Canadian International Merchandise Trade open data, total exports HS6 x country (ODPFN019), 2025 and 2024 (2025; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
Estimates from press or commentary
- Army Recognition, Saab GlobalEye defeats Boeing Wedgetail in Canada AEW&C contract (27 May 2026) (27 May 2026; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
- 19FortyFive, Saab says 40 JAS 39 Gripen fighters would justify building whole jets in Canada (Sep 2026) (Sep 2026; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
Our calculations
- Share of all foreign direct investment in Canada booked to the country (immediate basis): 0.65% of FDI in Canada (= immediate-investor position / all FDI in Canada × 100)
Strature analysis, not from the brief: researched by Strature from public sources and kept in our country dossier, updated 6 Oct 2026. General research, not advice. Who is exposed to the US tariffs and Canada