US tariffs and Canada: who is exposed

Canada (primary) and the United States (the measuring party) are the theme's own group and always included. Any other country is in the theme if its headline metric on at least one channel reaches that channel's inclusion line. A country named in a brief but below every line is dropped unless the brief makes it central: central here means it is a tagged country on a brief question item about this theme AND the subject of a registered forecast or of the item's answer (e.g. Venezuela in F-0177, China in F-0169). A country's theme band is its highest channel band. Each channel carries a sign: risk (the country loses if the US-Canada break deepens), opportunity (it gains), or both.

• US market rival High ≥25% · Medium 10–25% · Low 5–10% with ≥US$2bnThe country's share of US imports of a Canada-key good, 2025. Included from ≥10% of US imports of the good, or ≥5 with ≥US$2bn of US imports of the good
• CUSMA partner High US takes ≥50% of goods exports and the agreement is under review · Medium one of the two · Low neitherShare of the country's goods exports sold to the US, and membership of the agreement under annual joint review. Included from parties to CUSMA (own group: Mexico)
• Sales to Canada High ≥5% · Medium 2–5% · Low <2 but on a money lineGoods exports to Canada as % of the country's total goods exports. Included from ≥2% of goods exports with ≥US$250m a year, or ≥US$10bn a year, or Canada's 2025 imports from the country ≥C$14bn (about US$10bn; StatCan mirror, used where the partner-reported year is older). Flows that are mainly gold (HS 7108 >= 50% of Canada's imports from the country) are set aside, as is a partner-reported flow that Canada's own import record does not match (held out until checked).
• Supply from Canada High ≥50% · Medium 25–50%Share of the country's imports of a key Canadian export good supplied by Canada (potash, canola, canola oil, pulses, wheat, coal, iron ore, uranium, pulp, sawn wood, crustaceans, aluminium). Included from ≥25% of the country's imports of the good with ≥US$250m of imports from Canada
• Diversification market High ≥3% · Medium 1–3% · Low 0.5–1% (growth or brief-named)The country's share of Canada's goods exports, 2025 (with and without gold), and growth on 2024. Included from ≥1% of Canada's goods exports, or ≥0.5 with growth ≥20% on 2024, or a market a released brief measures as a redirect destination with ≥0.5
• Capital in Canada High ≥C$100bn · Medium C$25bn–C$100bn · Low C$10bn–C$25bn, or a pledge with nothing found placedDirect investment position in Canada (book value, StatCan 36-10-0008), C$bn, 2025; or a public pledge to invest in Canada. Included from ≥C$10bn position, or a state or fund pledge ≥US$10bn named in a brief

General lines

• 10% is the floor wherever the headline is a share of a market or of a supply (share of US imports of a good, share of a country's imports of a good): below it a shift of Canadian trade moves too little of the country's book to be material. 25% (input/dependence channels) and 25% (rival share) are the High lines.
• US$1bn a year at stake is the inclusion line where a channel is measured in money; US$10bn (or C$10bn of investment stock) is used where the measure is a stock or an economy-wide flow, because every G20 economy trades more than US$1bn with Canada.
• 2% of a country's goods exports going to Canada is the inclusion line for the Canada-as-market channel; 5% is High.
• Canada-key goods are the HS headings where Canada supplied at least 10% of US imports in 2025 AND a Canada-specific US measure applies or is threatened (Section 338 lists, Section 232 steel, aluminium, autos and parts, lumber, furniture), or a registered forecast names the good (crude: F-0177). 2025 set: unwrought aluminium 7601, iron and steel ch.72, passenger cars 8703, parts 8708, trucks 8704, sawn wood 4407, wood ch.44, paper ch.48, pulp ch.47, plastics ch.39, crude 2709. Furniture ch.94 (Canada 7.6% of US imports) and refined products 2710 (no Canada-specific measure) fall outside the 10% / measure test and are recorded for context only. Potash 3104, natural gas 2711 and electricity 2716 are recorded (Canada 84-100% of US imports) but carry no Canada-specific US measure; they are shown for context, not banded on the rival channel.
• Gold (HS 7108) is set aside wherever a share of Canada's exports is measured: C-006 finds gold explains most of the non-US gain to the UK. Shares with and without gold are both recorded where available.
• WS-029 (6 Oct 2026; applies to every theme): a trade sub-heading (e.g. durum wheat HS 100119 within wheat HS 1001) may carry a band when it meets the channel's share line and its money floor on its own figures. Here: Italy is Medium on durum wheat (32.5% from Canada, US$0.33bn, 2025) although all wheat is 19.7%. The lines themselves are unchanged.

WS-022 point 3; WS-023 point 2: a figure from press or commentary is kept with confidence low and shown as an estimate; it can include a country but a low-confidence figure alone caps the band at Medium.