US tariffs and Canada · Strature analysis, not from the brief
US tariffs and Canada: what is at stake for Algeria
Canada supplies 25.4% of Algeria's iron ore imports, the Medium band, and Algeria buys 5.8% of Canada's wheat exports. Canada's iron ore, wheat and pulse sales there reached US$0.77bn in 2025.
25.4%
Iron ore imports supplied by Canada (2024)
5.8%
Share of Canada's wheat exports (2025)
US$0.77bn
Canada's iron ore, wheat and pulse sales, US$bn (2025)
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Risks
- Algeria bought US$0.27bn of its US$1.06bn of iron ore from Canada in 2024, so a supply break at Canadian mines or ports would reach its steel plants.
- Wheat is the largest of the three measured Canadian sales to Algeria, US$467.4m in 2025, so a poor Canadian crop would be felt there.
- In our judgement, ore prices and Canadian rail or port disruption, not US tariffs, are the nearer risks to these flows.
Opportunities
- If the US-Canada break lasts (F-0173), more Canadian ore and grain could go to buyers such as Algeria.
- Algeria bought US$0.79bn of iron ore from other origins in 2024: room for Canadian supply.
Uncertainties
- Algeria's wheat dependence on Canada was not measured here; Algeria has not reported its 2025 imports by origin to Comtrade.
- Algeria is not covered by the export-share data used for the Canada-as-market channel.
What to watch
- 4 Nov, 8 Dec 2026Canadian trade data for September and October, early months under the new US duty.
- MonthlyCanadian iron ore and wheat exports by destination.
- 30 Sep 2027F-0173 resolves: whether the US-Canada break lasts.
Exposure by lens
| Lens | Figure | Band | Published line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Supply from Canada (iron ore)Dependence | 25.4% of imports of the good 2024Canada's share of the country's imports of iron ore (HS 2601) | Medium | High ≥50% · Medium 25–50% |
Bands follow the published materiality lines for this theme. A low-confidence figure alone caps a band at Medium.
Drawn to scale from zero. Source: UN Comtrade (public API), Canada's exports by partner, as reported by Canada.
Briefs and questions
- C-006 F-0173 US tariffs still above their 2024 level (lasting break), 92%, our estimate, scored when it resolves.
Sources cited
- UN Comtrade (public API), imports by reporter from Canada and from the world (2024; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
- UN Comtrade (public API), Canada's exports by partner, as reported by Canada (2025; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
- UN Comtrade (public API), Canada's exports by partner, as reported by Canada (2025; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
- UN Comtrade (public API), Canada's exports by partner, as reported by Canada (2025; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
Our calculations
- Canada's iron ore, wheat and pulse exports to Algeria: US$0.77bn (= sum of the three flows)
- Algeria's iron ore imports from origins other than Canada: US$0.79bn (= Algeria's iron ore imports, all origins - from Canada)
Strature analysis, not from the brief: researched by Strature from public sources and kept in our country dossier, updated 6 Oct 2026. General research, not advice. Who is exposed to the US tariffs and Canada