US tariffs and Canada · Strature analysis, not from the brief
US tariffs and Canada: what is at stake for Switzerland
Switzerland books C$44.2bn of direct investment in Canada, C$27.3bn on an ultimate-investor basis. Goods trade is small and mostly gold; the stake is capital in Canada, within reach of the US measures.
C$44.2bn
Direct investment in Canada booked to Switzerland (2025)
C$27.3bn
Controlled from Switzerland, ultimate-investor basis (2025)
2.8%
Share of all foreign direct investment in Canada (2025)
74.3%
Gold share of Canada's goods exports to Switzerland (2025)
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Risks
- Swiss-owned plants in Canada that ship south face the US duties on Canadian goods. Swiss goods face a US duty of the higher of the MFN rate or 15%, so a Swiss group can serve the US from home or from US plants instead.
- On an ultimate-investor basis Switzerland's position is C$27.3bn, 61.8% of the C$44.2bn booked to it: part of what is booked to Switzerland is controlled from elsewhere.
- A Canadian recession (F-0174) would weigh on returns from C$44.2bn of holdings.
- Trade ties are thin: Canada's exports to Switzerland excluding gold fell 35.4% in 2025, to C$0.66bn.
Opportunities
- On an ultimate-investor basis, Switzerland's position in Canada rose from C$25.3bn to C$27.3bn in 2025.
- Canadian direct investment in Switzerland stood at C$20.3bn in 2025, a two-way link.
- Pharmaceuticals made 20.0% of Canada's imports from Switzerland in 2025. If Canada turns away from US suppliers, Swiss producers are among those placed to gain.
Uncertainties
- Which Swiss-owned plants in Canada export to the US, and how much, is not published by country of owner.
- The 15% US ceiling on Swiss goods rests on a framework, not a treaty, and can change.
What to watch
- Apr 2027Statistics Canada's next annual direct investment release, by immediate and ultimate investor.
- 30 Sep 2027F-0173 resolves: US tariffs still above their 2024 level.
- MonthlyCanada's trade data by country; gold drives most of the flow to Switzerland.
Exposure by lens
| Lens | Figure | Band | Published line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Capital in CanadaCapital and finance | C$44.2bn 2025Direct investment position in Canada (book value, immediate investor country) | Medium | High ≥C$100bn · Medium C$25bn–C$100bn · Low C$10bn–C$25bn, or a pledge with nothing found placed |
Bands follow the published materiality lines for this theme. A low-confidence figure alone caps a band at Medium.
Immediate investor: the country where the investment is booked. Ultimate investor: the country of the company that controls it.
Drawn to scale from zero. Source: Statistics Canada, Table 36-10-0008-01, International investment position, Canadian direct investment abroad and foreign direct investment in Canada, by country, annual (book value); Statistics Canada, Table 36-10-0433-01, International investment position, Canadian direct investment abroad and foreign direct investment in Canada by ultimate investor country, annual (book value).
Briefs and questions
- C-006 F-0173 A lasting break: US tariffs still above their 2024 level, 92%, our estimate, scored when it resolves.
- C-006 F-0174 Canada in recession, 25%, our estimate, scored when it resolves.
Sources cited
- Statistics Canada, Table 36-10-0008-01, International investment position, Canadian direct investment abroad and foreign direct investment in Canada, by country, annual (book value) (2025; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
- Statistics Canada, Table 36-10-0433-01, International investment position, Canadian direct investment abroad and foreign direct investment in Canada by ultimate investor country, annual (book value) (2025; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
- Statistics Canada, Canadian International Merchandise Trade open data, total exports HS6 x country (ODPFN019), 2025 and 2024 (2025; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
- economiesuisse, US tariffs: 15 percent come into force retroactively (from 14 Nov 2025; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
- Statistics Canada, Canadian International Merchandise Trade open data, imports HS6 x country (ODPFN015), 2025 (2025; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
Our calculations
- Share of all foreign direct investment in Canada booked to the country (immediate basis): 2.8% of FDI in Canada (= immediate-investor position / all FDI in Canada × 100)
- Ultimate-investor position as a share of the immediate-investor position in Canada: 61.8% (= ultimate-investor position / immediate-investor position × 100)
Strature analysis, not from the brief: researched by Strature from public sources and kept in our country dossier, updated 6 Oct 2026. General research, not advice. Who is exposed to the US tariffs and Canada