US tariffs and Canada · Strature analysis, not from the brief
US tariffs and Canada: what is at stake for Cayman Islands
The Cayman Islands book C$12.2bn of direct investment in Canada, up 79.8% in 2025; on an ultimate-investor basis their position is C$1.7bn. Canadian investment there: C$79.7bn.
C$12.2bn
Booked to the Cayman Islands, immediate-investor basis (2025)
C$1.7bn
Controlled from the Cayman Islands, ultimate-investor basis (2025)
C$79.7bn
Canadian direct investment in the Cayman Islands (2025)
79.8%
Change in the booked position, 2024 to 2025
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Risks
- On an ultimate-investor basis the Cayman Islands' position is C$1.7bn, 13.6% of the C$12.2bn booked there: the exposure belongs to investors elsewhere.
- The booked position nearly doubled in 2025 while the ultimate-investor position halved, from C$3.4bn to C$1.7bn: the booked figure moves with where holdings are booked, not with local plant.
- Goods trade is negligible: Canada exported C$24.0 million there in 2025, down 74.6%.
Opportunities
- Canada's C$79.7bn position in the Cayman Islands is 6.5 times theirs in Canada: far more Canadian capital is booked there than comes back.
- Holdings booked there rose from C$6.8bn to C$12.2bn in 2025.
Uncertainties
- Which investors stand behind the 2025 increase is not published.
- Small positions swing with single transactions; one year's change says little about the trend.
What to watch
- Apr 2027Statistics Canada's next annual direct investment release, by immediate and ultimate investor.
- QuarterlyStatistics Canada's quarterly international investment position, for Canada-wide totals (it has no direct investment detail by country).
- 30 Sep 2027F-0173 resolves: US tariffs still above their 2024 level.
Exposure by lens
| Lens | Figure | Band | Published line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Capital in CanadaCapital and finance | C$12.2bn 2025Direct investment position in Canada (book value, immediate investor country) | Low | High ≥C$100bn · Medium C$25bn–C$100bn · Low C$10bn–C$25bn, or a pledge with nothing found placed |
Bands follow the published materiality lines for this theme. A low-confidence figure alone caps a band at Medium.
Immediate investor: the country where the investment is booked. Ultimate investor: the country of the company that controls it.
Drawn to scale from zero. Source: Statistics Canada, Table 36-10-0008-01, International investment position, Canadian direct investment abroad and foreign direct investment in Canada, by country, annual (book value); Statistics Canada, Table 36-10-0433-01, International investment position, Canadian direct investment abroad and foreign direct investment in Canada by ultimate investor country, annual (book value).
Briefs and questions
- C-006 F-0173 A lasting break: US tariffs still above their 2024 level, 92%, our estimate, scored when it resolves.
Sources cited
- Statistics Canada, Table 36-10-0008-01, International investment position, Canadian direct investment abroad and foreign direct investment in Canada, by country, annual (book value) (2025; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
- Statistics Canada, Table 36-10-0433-01, International investment position, Canadian direct investment abroad and foreign direct investment in Canada by ultimate investor country, annual (book value) (2025; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
- Statistics Canada, Canadian International Merchandise Trade open data, total exports HS6 x country (ODPFN019), 2025 and 2024 (2025; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
Our calculations
- Change in the Cayman Islands' immediate-investor position in Canada, 2024 to 2025: 79.8% (= (2025 position / 2024 position - 1) × 100)
- Ultimate-investor position as a share of the immediate-investor position in Canada: 13.6% (= ultimate-investor position / immediate-investor position × 100)
- Canadian direct investment position in the Cayman Islands as a multiple of their position in Canada: 6.5 times (= Canadian position in the country / the country's position in Canada)
- Share of all foreign direct investment in Canada booked to the country (immediate basis): 0.76% of FDI in Canada (= immediate-investor position / all FDI in Canada × 100)
Strature analysis, not from the brief: researched by Strature from public sources and kept in our country dossier, updated 6 Oct 2026. General research, not advice. Who is exposed to the US tariffs and Canada