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Hong Kong

No published question names Hong Kong yet; our country analysis is below.

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Hong Kong is too small to draw at this map’s scale; its questions are listed below.

Country analysis

Questions answered

The questions our published briefs answer that touch Hong Kong.

Chipmaking in Taiwan · Strature analysis, not from the brief

Chipmaking in Taiwan: what is at stake for Hong Kong

Hong Kong's band is Low. Hong Kong took 23.0% of its US$272.60bn chip imports from Taiwan in 2025 and sent 83.3% of chip exports to China. Hub shares measure trade exposure, not final demand.

Theme band Low

23%

of chip imports from Taiwan, 2025 (hub figure)

US$62.7bn

chip imports from Taiwan, 2025 (US$ bn)

83.3%

of chip exports to China, 2025

29%

of processor imports from Taiwan, 2024 (hub figure, not banded)

Read the full panel

Risks

  • Chip exports to China were US$184.50bn in 2024 and US$218.92bn in 2025: an interruption of chip supply from Taiwan would reach this trade.
  • Processors from Taiwan were 29.0% of US$93.70bn imported in 2024. As a re-export hub figure, it is not given a band.
  • Taiwan's share of chip imports rose from 21.3% in 2024 to 23.0% in 2025, of US$272.60bn.
  • Outside estimate, not a Strature forecast: Bloomberg Economics' model, in a 2026 update as reported in the press, puts a blockade of Taiwan at -5.3% of world GDP in its first year and a war at -9.6%. No figure for Hong Kong was found. Estimate from press or commentary

Opportunities

  • The trade has other sources: China supplied 35.2% of chip imports in 2025 and Singapore 14.6%.
  • Electronics were 63.3% of goods exports in 2024, but almost all are re-exports of goods made elsewhere, so local factories carry little of the loss.

Uncertainties

  • Hub figures count goods passing through, not goods used in Hong Kong; the loss falls mainly on buyers in China.
  • Comtrade records the shipping origin: chips made in Taiwan but packaged elsewhere arrive under another origin, so the Taiwan share can understate the link.

What to watch

  • 15 Oct 2026TSMC's third-quarter results, the next dated disclosure X-001 tracks: the node mix made only in Taiwan.
  • MonthlyCensus and Statistics Department external trade: chip re-exports to China.
  • AnnualComtrade partner data: Taiwan's share of chip imports (23.0% in 2025).
  • AnnualComtrade partner data: Taiwan's share of processor imports (29.0% in 2024).

Exposure by lens

Exposure band per lens, with the figure and the published line
LensFigureBandPublished line
Chip importsDependence23% 2025Share of electronic integrated circuits (HS 8542) imports from TaiwanLowHigh ≥40% · Medium 25–40% · Low 15–25%

Bands follow the published materiality lines for this theme. A low-confidence figure alone caps a band at Medium.

Taiwan's share of Hong Kong's chip imports, 2024 and 2025 (%)
Share of electronic integrated circuits (HS 8542) imports from Taiwan: 23% (2025)202523.0Share of electronic integrated circuits (HS 8542) imports from Taiwan: 21.3% (2024)202421.3

Drawn to scale from zero. Source: UN Comtrade (public API): HKG imports of electronic integrated circuits (HS 8542) by partner, 2024; UN Comtrade (public API): HKG imports of electronic integrated circuits (HS 8542) by partner, 2025.

Briefs and questions

Sources cited

Estimates from press or commentary

Strature analysis, not from the brief: researched by Strature from public sources and kept in our country dossier, updated 6 Oct 2026. General research, not advice. Who is exposed to the Chipmaking in Taiwan

US tariffs and Canada · Strature analysis, not from the brief

US tariffs and Canada: what is at stake for Hong Kong

Hong Kong books C$39.3bn of direct investment in Canada; on an ultimate-investor basis its position is C$11.6bn. It is treated as a conduit centre, so the capital band is capped at Low.

Theme band Low

C$39.3bn

Booked to Hong Kong, immediate-investor basis (2025)

C$11.6bn

Controlled from Hong Kong, ultimate-investor basis (2025)

16.4%

CK Hutchison's holding in Cenovus Energy (Mar 2026)

C$1.22bn

Canada's crude oil exports to Hong Kong (2025)

Read the full panel

Risks

  • On an ultimate-investor basis Hong Kong's position is C$11.6bn, 29.4% of the C$39.3bn booked to it (Statistics Canada): much of what is booked to Hong Kong is controlled elsewhere, and some Hong Kong capital may enter through other places.
  • CK Hutchison holds 16.39% of Cenovus Energy, a Canadian oil producer that sells into the US, through a Luxembourg subsidiary (Cenovus 2026 circular). We make no statement on the value of the holding.
  • If Trans Mountain fills and apportions spot nominations (F-0168), spot crude cargoes from the West Coast, including those to Hong Kong, could be cut back.

Opportunities

  • Canada's crude exports to Hong Kong rose from C$0.43bn in 2024 to C$1.22bn in 2025, 8.1% of Canada's non-US crude exports.
  • Canada's exports to Hong Kong excluding gold rose 71.2% in 2025, to C$3.06bn, 0.42% of the total.

Uncertainties

  • The final refinery for crude recorded to Hong Kong is not known.
  • The Cenovus holder is a Luxembourg company, so the holding may be booked to Luxembourg rather than Hong Kong in Statistics Canada's immediate-investor figures.

What to watch

  • MonthlyCanada's crude exports by destination, including Trans Mountain cargoes to Asia.
  • Apr 2027Statistics Canada's next annual direct investment release, by immediate and ultimate investor.
  • 30 Sep 2027F-0173 resolves: US tariffs still above their 2024 level.
  • 31 Dec 2028F-0168 resolves: Trans Mountain apportions spot nominations.

Exposure by lens

Exposure band per lens, with the figure and the published line
LensFigureBandPublished line
Capital in CanadaCapital and financeC$39.3bn 2025Direct investment position in Canada (book value, immediate investor country)LowHigh ≥C$100bn · Medium C$25bn–C$100bn · Low C$10bn–C$25bn, or a pledge with nothing found placed
Diversification marketTrade0.42% of Canada's goods exports 2025The country's share of Canada's goods exports excluding goldBelow lineHigh ≥3% · Medium 1–3% · Low 0.5–1% (growth or brief-named)

Bands follow the published materiality lines for this theme. A low-confidence figure alone caps a band at Medium.

Hong Kong and Canada: direct investment positions, 2025 (C$bn)
Direct investment position in Canada (book value, immediate investor country): C$39.3bn (2025)Inward, immediate39.3Canadian direct investment position in the country (book value): C$26.6bn (2025)Outward (Canada's)26.6Direct investment position in Canada, ultimate investor basis (book value): C$11.6bn (2025)Inward, ultimate11.6

Immediate investor: the country where the investment is booked. Ultimate investor: the country of the company that controls it.

Drawn to scale from zero. Source: Statistics Canada, Table 36-10-0008-01, International investment position, Canadian direct investment abroad and foreign direct investment in Canada, by country, annual (book value); Statistics Canada, Table 36-10-0433-01, International investment position, Canadian direct investment abroad and foreign direct investment in Canada by ultimate investor country, annual (book value).

Briefs and questions

  • C-006 F-0173 A lasting break: US tariffs still above their 2024 level, 92%, our estimate, scored when it resolves.
  • C-006 F-0168 Trans Mountain apportions spot nominations, 20%, our estimate, scored when it resolves.

Sources cited

Our calculations

  • Ultimate-investor position as a share of the immediate-investor position in Canada: 29.4% (= ultimate-investor position / immediate-investor position × 100)
  • Share of all foreign direct investment in Canada booked to the country (immediate basis): 2.5% of FDI in Canada (= immediate-investor position / all FDI in Canada × 100)

Strature analysis, not from the brief: researched by Strature from public sources and kept in our country dossier, updated 6 Oct 2026. General research, not advice. Who is exposed to the US tariffs and Canada

ISO 3166-1 name: Hong Kong (HKG). Country and territory names follow common usage and imply no position on sovereignty.

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