US tariffs and Canada · Strature analysis, not from the brief
US tariffs and Canada: what is at stake for Ecuador
Canada supplied 56.2% of Ecuador's wheat imports in 2025, the High band. Ecuador also sells crude to the US, where Canada is the largest supplier.
56.2%
Wheat imports supplied by Canada (2025)
US$0.29bn
Canada's wheat exports to Ecuador, US$bn (2025)
169
US crude imports from Ecuador, thousand b/d (Jul 2026)
C$1.68bn
Canadian mining assets, C$m (2024)
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Risks
- More than half of Ecuador's wheat comes from Canada: US$0.34bn of US$0.61bn in 2025.
- US crude imports from Ecuador ranged from 35 thousand barrels a day in Feb 2026 to 183 in May.
- If Venezuelan heavy crude gains in US refineries (F-0177), Ecuador's grades compete for the same buyers.
Opportunities
- A Canada-Ecuador trade agreement was reported in Jul 2026 to let 99.6% of Ecuador's exportable goods enter Canada duty-free once in force (press report). Estimate from press or commentary
- Canadian mining assets in Ecuador were C$1,676m in 2024.
Uncertainties
- Canada's wheat share moves from year to year: 51.0% in 2024 and 56.2% in 2025.
- Ecuador's pro-rata share of Canada's US crude sales, US$4.36bn, is an upper bound, not a forecast.
What to watch
- Not datedRatification of the reported Canada-Ecuador trade agreement in both countries.
- End Oct 2026US EIA crude imports by origin for August.
- 30 Sep 2027F-0177 resolves: Venezuelan heavy crude displacing Canadian crude in US refineries.
Exposure by lens
| Lens | Figure | Band | Published line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Supply from Canada (wheat)Dependence | 56.2% of imports of the good 2025Canada's share of the country's imports of wheat (HS 1001) | High | High ≥50% · Medium 25–50% |
Bands follow the published materiality lines for this theme. A low-confidence figure alone caps a band at Medium.
Drawn to scale from zero. Source: UN Comtrade (public API), Ecuador's imports by partner, as reported by Ecuador; UN Comtrade (public API), US imports of crude oil (HS 2709) by partner, as reported by the United States.
Briefs and questions
- C-006 · Does Canada add export routes off the US refinery system before its pipeline capacity fills in the early 2030s, starting with the Trans Mountain expansion due in the fourth quarter of 2026? F-0177 Venezuelan heavy crude displaces Canadian crude in US refineries, 40%, our estimate, scored when it resolves.
Sources cited
- UN Comtrade (public API), Ecuador's imports by partner, as reported by Ecuador (2025; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
- UN Comtrade (public API), Canada's exports by partner, as reported by Canada (2025; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
- US EIA, Petroleum Supply Monthly, U.S. Imports from Ecuador of Crude Oil (thousand barrels per day), monthly (Jul 2026; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
- Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Mining Assets (CMAs), by Country and Region, 2023 and 2024 (p) (2024; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
- UN Comtrade (public API), imports by reporter from Canada and from the world (2024; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
- UN Comtrade (public API), US imports of crude oil (HS 2709) by partner, as reported by the United States (2025; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
Estimates from press or commentary
- Rio Times, 'Ecuador Canada Trade Agreement: 99.6% Duty-Free' (Jul 2026) (2026; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
Our calculations
- Pro-rata share of Canada's US crude (HS 2709) sales: Ecuador (illustrative diversion ceiling): US$4.36bn (= US imports from Canada × (Ecuador's US imports / US imports from all non-Canadian origins))
Strature analysis, not from the brief: researched by Strature from public sources and kept in our country dossier, updated 6 Oct 2026. General research, not advice. Who is exposed to the US tariffs and Canada