US tariffs and Canada · Strature analysis, not from the brief
US tariffs and Canada: what is at stake for Cambodia
Canada took 4.01% of Cambodia's exports in 2023, the Medium band. Clothing made up C$1.86bn of Canada's C$3.01bn of imports from Cambodia in 2025, so a Canadian slowdown is the main channel.
4.01%
Share of Cambodia's exports going to Canada (2023)
C$3.01bn
Canada's imports from Cambodia, C$bn (2025)
C$1.86bn
Clothing in those imports, C$bn (Strature calculation)
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Risks
- A Canadian recession (F-0174) would hit clothing, 62% of what Canada buys from Cambodia.
- Canada aligning its outside tariffs with US policy (F-0176) would reach the same clothing flow.
- Garment, footwear and travel goods exports reached US$15.5bn in 2025, as reported; Canada is a small part of that. Estimate from press or commentary
Opportunities
- The sector's exports rose 15.7% in 2025, as reported, so the sector has been expanding. Estimate from press or commentary
- Canada's imports from Cambodia were C$3.01bn in 2025, above the theme's money line.
Uncertainties
- The 4.01% share is for 2023, from Cambodia's own report; later years were not fetched.
- Canada's tariff preferences for Cambodia were not checked in this round.
What to watch
- 4 Nov, 8 Dec 2026Canadian import data by origin, monthly releases.
- 30 Sep 2027F-0176 resolves: Fortress North America.
- 31 Dec 2027F-0174 resolves: Canada in recession.
Exposure by lens
| Lens | Figure | Band | Published line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales to CanadaTrade | 4.01% of goods exports 2023Share of the country's goods exports going to Canada | Medium | High ≥5% · Medium 2–5% · Low <2 but on a money line |
Bands follow the published materiality lines for this theme. A low-confidence figure alone caps a band at Medium.
Drawn to scale from zero. Source: Statistics Canada, Canadian International Merchandise Trade open data, imports HS6 x country (ODPFN015), 2025. * Our calculation from the cited figures.
Briefs and questions
- C-006 F-0174 Canada in recession, 25%, our estimate, scored when it resolves.
- C-006 F-0176 Fortress North America: Canada aligns its outside tariffs with the US, 7%, our estimate, scored when it resolves.
Sources cited
- World Bank WITS, Trade Stats (from UN Comtrade), exports by reporter to Canada and to the world (2023; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
- Statistics Canada, Canadian International Merchandise Trade open data, imports HS6 x country (ODPFN015), 2025 (2025; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
Estimates from press or commentary
- Cambodia Investment Review, 'Cambodia's Garment, Footwear and Travel Goods Exports Hit $15.5 Billion in 2025' (23 Jan 2026) (2025; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
Our calculations
- Clothing (HS 61 and 62) in Canada's imports from Cambodia: C$1.86bn (= Canada's imports from Cambodia of HS 61 plus HS 62, exact values)
Strature analysis, not from the brief: researched by Strature from public sources and kept in our country dossier, updated 6 Oct 2026. General research, not advice. Who is exposed to the US tariffs and Canada