US tariffs and Canada · Strature analysis, not from the brief
US tariffs and Canada: what is at stake for Luxembourg
Luxembourg books C$76.2bn of direct investment in Canada; on an ultimate-investor basis its position is C$28.3bn. It is a conduit centre, so the band is capped at Low.
C$76.2bn
Booked to Luxembourg, immediate-investor basis (2025)
C$28.3bn
Controlled from Luxembourg, ultimate-investor basis (2025)
37.2%
Ultimate-investor position as % of the booked position (2025)
C$108bn
Canadian direct investment in Luxembourg (2025)
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Risks
- On an ultimate-investor basis Luxembourg's position is C$28.3bn, 37.2% of the C$76.2bn booked to it: much of what is booked there belongs to investors elsewhere.
- Steel is where the dispute reaches a Luxembourg-headquartered group: US steel tariffs were reported to cost ArcelorMittal's Canadian operations about US$600m a year. Estimate from press or commentary
- The booked position rose from C$70.3bn in 2024 to C$76.2bn in 2025, so more holdings are within reach of the US measures.
Opportunities
- Canadian direct investment in Luxembourg, C$108.0bn, is 1.42 times Luxembourg's position in Canada: the link runs both ways.
- Canada's exports to Luxembourg tripled in 2025, to C$235.8 million, from a small base.
Uncertainties
- Statistics Canada does not publish which ultimate investors stand behind the Luxembourg holdings.
- The US$600m tariff cost is a press estimate; the company filing was not reached. Estimate from press or commentary
What to watch
- Apr 2027Statistics Canada's next annual direct investment release, by immediate and ultimate investor.
- 30 Sep 2027F-0173 resolves: US tariffs still above their 2024 level.
- QuarterlyArcelorMittal results: the cost of US steel tariffs on its Canadian operations.
Exposure by lens
| Lens | Figure | Band | Published line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Capital in CanadaCapital and finance | C$76.2bn 2025Direct investment position in Canada (book value, immediate investor country) | Low | High ≥C$100bn · Medium C$25bn–C$100bn · Low C$10bn–C$25bn, or a pledge with nothing found placed |
Bands follow the published materiality lines for this theme. A low-confidence figure alone caps a band at Medium.
Immediate investor: the country where the investment is booked. Ultimate investor: the country of the company that controls it.
Drawn to scale from zero. Source: Statistics Canada, Table 36-10-0008-01, International investment position, Canadian direct investment abroad and foreign direct investment in Canada, by country, annual (book value); Statistics Canada, Table 36-10-0433-01, International investment position, Canadian direct investment abroad and foreign direct investment in Canada by ultimate investor country, annual (book value).
Briefs and questions
- C-006 F-0173 A lasting break: US tariffs still above their 2024 level, 92%, our estimate, scored when it resolves.
Sources cited
- Statistics Canada, Table 36-10-0008-01, International investment position, Canadian direct investment abroad and foreign direct investment in Canada, by country, annual (book value) (2025; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
- Statistics Canada, Table 36-10-0433-01, International investment position, Canadian direct investment abroad and foreign direct investment in Canada by ultimate investor country, annual (book value) (2025; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
- Statistics Canada, Canadian International Merchandise Trade open data, total exports HS6 x country (ODPFN019), 2025 and 2024 (2025; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
Estimates from press or commentary
- Hashtag Investing, U.S. steel tariffs are costing ArcelorMittal $600M a year in Canada (2025-2026; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
Our calculations
- Ultimate-investor position as a share of the immediate-investor position in Canada: 37.2% (= ultimate-investor position / immediate-investor position × 100)
- Canadian direct investment position in Luxembourg as a multiple of Luxembourg's position in Canada: 1.42 times (= Canadian position in the country / the country's position in Canada)
- Share of all foreign direct investment in Canada booked to the country (immediate basis): 4.8% of FDI in Canada (= immediate-investor position / all FDI in Canada × 100)
Strature analysis, not from the brief: researched by Strature from public sources and kept in our country dossier, updated 6 Oct 2026. General research, not advice. Who is exposed to the US tariffs and Canada