US tariffs and Canada · Strature analysis, not from the brief
US tariffs and Canada: what is at stake for Peru
Canada supplied 76.5% of Peru's wheat imports in 2024, the High band, and Canadian miners hold C$11,245m of assets in Peru. Gold makes up 75% of what Canada buys from Peru.
76.5%
Wheat imports supplied by Canada (2024)
C$11.2bn
Canadian mining assets, C$m (2024)
C$1.96bn
Canada's imports from Peru excluding gold, C$bn (2025)
Read the full panel
Risks
- Peru bought US$0.51bn of its US$0.67bn of wheat from Canada in 2024; other origins supplied US$0.16bn.
- A Canadian recession (F-0174) would reach C$1.96bn of non-gold sales to Canada, including fruit and nuts (8% of all imports from Peru) and coffee, tea and spices (4%).
- Canada's imports from Peru, C$7.74bn in 2025, are mostly gold (75%), so their value follows the gold price.
Opportunities
- Canadian mining assets in Peru rose to C$11,245m in 2024 from C$10,770m.
- Canadian wheat sales to Peru were US$429.5m in 2025, on Canada's figures.
Uncertainties
- The wheat share is for 2024; Peru has not yet reported later imports by origin.
- How far a Canadian recession (F-0174) would cut Canada's non-gold purchases from Peru is not measured.
What to watch
- 4 Nov and 8 Dec 2026Canadian trade data for September and October, the first full months under the new US duty.
- MonthlyCanadian wheat exports by destination.
- 31 Dec 2027F-0174 resolves: Canada in recession.
Exposure by lens
| Lens | Figure | Band | Published line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Supply from Canada (wheat)Dependence | 76.5% of imports of the good 2024Canada's share of the country's imports of wheat (HS 1001) | High | High ≥50% · Medium 25–50% |
Bands follow the published materiality lines for this theme. A low-confidence figure alone caps a band at Medium.
Drawn to scale from zero. Source: UN Comtrade (public API), imports by reporter from Canada and from the world.
Briefs and questions
- C-006 F-0174 Canada in recession, 25%, our estimate, scored when it resolves.
Sources cited
- UN Comtrade (public API), imports by reporter from Canada and from the world (2024; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
- Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Mining Assets (CMAs), by Country and Region, 2023 and 2024 (p) (2024; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
- Statistics Canada, Canadian International Merchandise Trade open data, imports HS6 x country (ODPFN015), 2025 (2025; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
- UN Comtrade (public API), Canada's exports by partner, as reported by Canada (2025; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
Our calculations
- Canada's imports from Peru excluding gold: C$1.96bn (= Canada's imports from Peru - Canada's imports of gold (HS 7108) from Peru)
- Peru's wheat imports from origins other than Canada: US$0.16bn (= Peru's wheat imports, all origins - imports from Canada)
Strature analysis, not from the brief: researched by Strature from public sources and kept in our country dossier, updated 6 Oct 2026. General research, not advice. Who is exposed to the US tariffs and Canada