Gulf war / Hormuz · Strature analysis, not from the brief
Gulf war / Hormuz: what is at stake for Netherlands
The Netherlands takes 13.7% of its crude from Iraq and Saudi Arabia (2024) and almost no Gulf LNG. Low band. As Europe's oil and gas hub it may also gain trade.
13.7%
Gulf share of crude imports, 2024
US$4.16bn
Crude from Iraq, US$ million, 2024
US$22.2bn
Crude sent on to Belgium, US$ bn, 2024
Read the full panel
Risks
- Iraqi crude (7.17 Mt in 2024) is the largest Gulf stream into Rotterdam refineries.
- Brent averaged US$114 in Sep 2026; refinery feedstock costs rise for all crude grades.
- Loss of Gulf crude would pass through to Belgium, which draws crude from Rotterdam.
Opportunities
- Rotterdam is a hub: US$22.2bn of crude went on to Belgium in 2024, and re-routed Atlantic barrels pass through it.
- LNG imports rose 28% in 2025 to 16.9 Mt, about three quarters (12.8 Mt) from the US, and Rotterdam takes 72.5% of Iceland's aluminium exports, a non-Gulf metal source.
Uncertainties
- How much of the Gulf crude is refined for Dutch use and how much is sent on; the hub blurs the national share.
- Product imports (diesel, jet) from Gulf refiners into ARA were not measured in this pass.
What to watch
- 20 Nov 2026F-0074 resolves. A renewed strike could cut Basra loadings.
- WeeklyARA product stocks (Insights Global) and diesel cracks.
- MonthlyDutch crude imports by origin (CBS).
Exposure by lens
| Lens | Figure | Band | Published line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crude oilEnergy | 13.7% 2024Share of crude imports from Hormuz Gulf producers (value) | Low | High ≥50% · Medium 25–50% · Low 10–25% |
| LNGEnergy | 16.9 Mt 2025LNG imports, total | Below line | High ≥50% · Medium 25–50% · Low 10–25% |
Bands follow the published materiality lines for this theme. A low-confidence figure alone caps a band at Medium.
GulfTotals
Drawn to scale from zero. Source: WITS/UN Comtrade: NLD crude (HS 270900) imports by partner 2024.
Briefs and questions
- T-003 · How much did each cargo through the Strait of Hormuz fall in 2026? Crude through the Strait
- S-001 · How does a strike reach buyers of Gulf energy? F-0074 Renewed strike, 61%, our estimate, scored when it resolves
Sources cited
- WITS/UN Comtrade: NLD crude (HS 270900) imports by partner 2024 (2024; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
- WITS/UN Comtrade: BEL crude (HS 270900) imports by partner 2024 (2024; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
- GIIGNL Annual Report 2026 (2025 trade; data GIIGNL and Kpler) (2025; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
- US EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2026 (released 6 Oct 2026) (Sep 2026; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
- UN Comtrade (public API), ISL HS 7601 exports by partner 2024 (2024; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
Our calculations
- Share of crude imports from Hormuz Gulf producers (value): 13.7% (= (4159.1 + 2533.4 + 42.9) / 49020.3)
- Gulf crude to replace if Gulf supply stops for 3 months: 2.79 Mt (= 11.17 × 3 / 12)
Strature analysis, not from the brief: researched by Strature from public sources and kept in our country dossier, updated 6 Oct 2026. General research, not advice. Who is exposed to the Gulf war / Hormuz